As 2010 Gasps to a Close, A Few Undeniable Signs of Hope
From my friend, Stephen Schmalhofer:
My favorite Christmas gift this year was Lord Kenneth Clark's Civilisation documentaries on DVD. The viewer gets barely 10 minutes into the comprehensive series before Clark makes his first bold thesis: Civilisations collapse, not primarily from disease or invasion or corruption, but rather from exhaustion.
Is this the beginning of the end or are claims of Western demise greatly exaggerated? I see a few signs that we have some kick left in us:
Item: When a global financial crisis sapped our political will and a complete move toward a Euro-welfare state seemed inevitable, the American body-politic drank an extra-large cup of Tea (Party).
Item: After nominating a fatigued, long-serving senator in 2008, the GOP perked up and sent a caffeine-charged group of freshmen Congressmen to take back the House in 2011.
Item: A new word is fresh on the tongue of Europeans: Austerity. The birth-rates and demographics still look dreadful, but maybe there are a few strong-backed ditch-diggers ready to bury old man Keynes.
Item: The USSR came of age and grew old in the same breath, and now, with the old age and decrepitude of Fidel Castro and Kim Jong-Il, the last Soviet satellites, Cuba and North Korea, appear ready to fall from their orbits.
Item: The Third Reich was to last for 1000 years but never reached 100. The keys given to a fisherman and his successors should never have lasted 100 years, but they have lasted more than two thousand. And now a German who kept the ancient faith despite growing up under the Nazis sits in the throne of St. Peter.
Happy New Year!
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May '10
Re: As 2010 Gasps to a Close, A Few Undeniable Signs of Hope
Peter, what are still doing up? You make wonderful points! Particularly about the Pope. As a devout Catholic to see a once mandated German youth placed in the hands of Hitler's Youth now overseeing a rejuvinating Catholicisim is breath taking. He is bringing conservitisim back to the church dispite what his critics say in regards to the Priest scandal. But the one sign most significant to me in relation to your Tea Party observation is the fact that in Europe we are seeing protests against austerity and here and no where else we are seeing protests for austerity. And probably the biggest one, people are asking what does the constitution say about this, and reading it to find out. America will rise out of the ash heap it finds itself in, we just need a few more Demints and Ryans in congress and a strong conservative President. My choice would be Sara Palin.
May '10
Re: As 2010 Gasps to a Close, A Few Undeniable Signs of Hope
That last item in the list is so cool it can't be topped, but here's another anyway:
Item: The slow but steady flow of the U.S. population into conservative-leaning states combines with the baby-happy inclinations of conservative families to provide some demographic oomph to the good guys.
Happy 2011.
May '10
Re: As 2010 Gasps to a Close, A Few Undeniable Signs of Hope
This constant worrier appreciates the soothing balm of potential good tidings listed but politics is a phenomenon much too ephemeral for civilization-scale reckoning, I think.
So, the puzzle to solve is twofold: first, where on the decline curve we actually find ourselves; and second, how fast a new civilization that is congenial to our hopes and expectations could rise after this one sees its demise.
There are so many parameters and so much uncertainty in trying to solve this puzzle that it's not worth even trying. Therefore, Peter is right: let's be merry as long as we can and let's keep trying!
So, Happy New Year to all the rebounders at Ricochet!
May '10
Re: As 2010 Gasps to a Close, A Few Undeniable Signs of Hope
Last night, as I laid my head upon my cot, I read the first few pages Civilizations's sixth chapter - so that I might dream of Holbein, Erasmus and Thomas Moore.
Happy New Year!
May '10
Re: As 2010 Gasps to a Close, A Few Undeniable Signs of Hope
Three cheers for Hitchens. I went to a debate at Berkeley between Hitchens and Orville Schell at the outset of the Iraq war - Hitchens pro, Schell con. One might imagine where the sympathies of most of the audience lay. Hitchens' opening gambit was to ask the audience if they would, right now, lift the no-fly zones and again allow Saddam a free hand in Iraq. It seemed to me that even for the Berkeley peaceniks that was a bridge too far, and I thought Hitchens had all the arguments on his side after that.
My best wishes to Hitchens, champion of human freedom.
May '10
Re: As 2010 Gasps to a Close, A Few Undeniable Signs of Hope
Kervinlee: Three cheers for Hitchens. I went to a debate at Berkeley between Hitchens and Orville Schell at the outset of the Iraq war - Hitchens pro, Schell con. One might imagine where the sympathies of most of the audience lay. Hitchens' opening gambit was to ask the audience if they would, right now, lift the no-fly zones and again allow Saddam a free hand in Iraq. It seemed to me that even for the Berkeley peaceniks that was a bridge too far, and I thought Hitchens had all the arguments on his side after that.
My best wishes to Hitchens, champion of human freedom. · Dec 31 at 10:11am
Oops! Wrong post! Sorry...
May '10
Re: As 2010 Gasps to a Close, A Few Undeniable Signs of Hope
Peter, while you (and others) are meditating on the long-term health of the West, and what might replace it if it falls apart, I suggest you include some thoughts for what Christendom will look like in the next 20-50 years as it finally frees itself from its too-close relationship with European culture. I can recommend two starting points: Jesus in Beijing and The Next Christendom.
The growth of the Christianity in China is especially intriguing, because it is a puzzle. I don't exactly trust the more optimistic estimates, but since churches still experience persecution to this day, the situation in inherently murky. However, both the estimates of the raw numbers, combined with other interesting details (like the concentration of Christians in the more economically dynamic parts of the country) lead me to suspect that Christianity maaaaaybe might become a dominant force in the country within 40 years. If something like that takes place, the world becomes an incredibly strange place; the change would be comparable to the conversion of the Western Hemisphere.