Are We In An Echo Chamber?
Like many of you, I have been positively giddy with the news that Ryan might run for President. Arguments in his favor have been convincingly made here and elsewhere. But, the following analysis from AllahPundit over at HotAir gives me pause:
Lay aside the fact that it’s hard to imagine him winning Iowa, New Hampshire (well, maybe), or South Carolina. Here’s the conundrum of a Ryan candidacy for conservatives: Is raising public awareness about America’s entitlements crisis so desperately urgent that we’re willing to accept a second Obama term in exchange for achieving it? If Ryan’s the nominee, we will at long last have that Very Serious Adult Conversation about Medicare and Social Security under the ultimate media spotlight. And even if Obama’s reelected, the political facts on the ground about entitlements will have changed come 2013 because of it. But the fact remains, decades of public dependency on those programs won’t change over the course of one campaign; a full-bore Democratic Mediscare narrative will assuredly be very, very effective. Which is to say, Ryan will be running at a heavy disadvantage despite Obama’s vulnerability on the economy. How lucky do you feel?
The danger of a mediscare campaign the likes of which we've never seen is very real with a Ryan candidacy. It reminds me of the old saying, "If you set out to kill the King, you better kill the King". Well, the King is the four-headed beast of social security-medicare-medicaid-Obamacare. A Ryan campaign will represent the first meaningful debate on the future of entitlements we've had in a long while. An electoral loss will have repercussions for decades. So, strategically, is this risk worth it? I'm not asking if it's a good idea on the merits, as I think there would be general agreement on those. But a loss here would be devastating. We'd essentially be playing for all the marbles.
To quote Peter Robinson: "What Think?"
Correction: the original version of this post listed Ed Morrissey as the author of the above analysis; he communicated to the editors of Ricochet that it was, in fact, written by his colleague, AllahPundit. My apologies to everyone concerned.
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Sep '10
Re: Are We In An Echo Chamber?
Mediscare is the theme of this election for the Dems. The election should be about the economy and jobs and the Obama record. Making this election about entitlement reform is precisely what they want. I don't mean to say we need to stay silent but we don't want to let Obama off the hook for his economy.
Republicans want to throw Grandma in the street but we Dems will save you will be their theme mark my words.
Edited on Aug 16, 2011 at 1:36pmJul '11
Re: Are We In An Echo Chamber?
Ross Conatser: Mediscare is the theme of this election for the Dems. The election should be about the economy and jobs and the Obama record. Making this election about entitlement reform is precisely what they want. I don't mean to say we need to stay silent but we don't want to let Obama off the hook for his economy.
Republicans want to thrown Grandma in the street but we Dems will save you will be there theme mark my words. · Aug 16 at 1:11pm
So, to make sure I understand, you'd rather have someone other than Ryan as the nominee to make the case about the economy as clear as possible? That approach is advantageous given the unemployment, creeping inflation, etc. It would frame the election in a way far more favorable to the GOP. Interesting.
May '10
Re: Are We In An Echo Chamber?
I also think we need to step back a bit from the almost orgasmic reaction. I like Paul Ryan too, but the reaction itself seems a bit overdone. He's a skilled legislator, but what has he done that would make him a good President? Explain it to me with more than just his (very commendable) recognition of our problems, his proposed plan (there are other plans out there) and his attributes as an articulate, smart person. (Where did we hear that last bit before?)
I'd prefer to keep him where he is, or perhaps as our next Speaker of the House.
As for the "Mediscare" stuff-- I'm not terribly worried about that. They'll say that about anyone, really. To me, that's just noise. Of course, it might impact some impressionable "independents" but I'm not sure we should base our decision on that alone.
Edited on Aug 16, 2011 at 2:13pmSep '10
Re: Are We In An Echo Chamber?
I really am impressed with Ryan and what I would prefer is a candidate with a solid record of executive experience with political skills to pick Obama apart in the debates.
Perry has a great record to compare with Obama's, but I don't know how he is on his feet (and I am from TX).
Dec '10
Re: Are We In An Echo Chamber?
I think you nailed part of my sentiment in declaring myself the designated driver in Paul Rahe's topic about Ryan. Just like any other candidate in the primary, he must be vetted by us, the voters. We can get as excited as we want so long as we don't let our hearts shut down our brains.
May '10
Re: Are We In An Echo Chamber?
I guess if I could rephrase it, Paul Ryan strikes me as a really great policy wonk, but I'm not sure that I want a wonk in the White House. I want an executive there. The executive should be the one delegating tasks to the wonk, and not the other way around.
An executive position does not require one to be an expert on all or even one key issue. It does require being an excellent leader, a person with a general sense of the vision and direction in which they want to go, good at inspiring, good at knowing who to ask for more information, good at delegating, and good at making the final call on difficult decisions.
Working in the Congress does not exactly hone all these capabilities. So again, I'd like to see Paul Ryan succeed where he is-- I think it's the best role for him.
Jul '11
Re: Are We In An Echo Chamber?
My enthusiasm is based on the shallowness of the existing pool. For example, his takedown, for lack of a better word, of Obama during the healthcare summit was masterful and demonstrated a command of the issues and an ability to communicate that is head and shoulders above Perry, Romney and Bachmann. I'm convinced he would be an outstanding candidate. That said, his Path To Prosperity, a courageous document, is a sitting duck for demagogues. And that's the unfortunate reality I'm trying to grapple with.
Edited on Aug 16, 2011 at 7:47pmMay '10
Re: Are We In An Echo Chamber?
I guess your concern is the Mediscare aspect-- I don't really worry about that, in general or specifically in Paul Ryan's case. We shouldn't continually react in fear to what "they" will say about us. It's better to stand on principles and fight for the truth.
My concern is more about the skills necessary for executive office, and you seem to think that won't be an issue. Yes, he has a great mastery of the issues, as a good policy wonk should. An executive needs this kind of person on his team, but I'm not convinced this qualifies one to be an executive.
Edited on Aug 16, 2011 at 2:21pmMay '10
Re: Are We In An Echo Chamber?
I read Morrisey's analysis but I think it's a gut shot, not a well reasoned one. After all, does he really think that the Dems would try Medi-scare only if Ryan is the nominee? I think that they are going to use this tactic no matter who the nominee is.
Just pause and say to yourself, "What is the most vile tactic the Democrats can deploy next year?" Now, ask yourself. "Who do I want to clearly articulate the answer to that and make the Republican case?"
If Ryan is not the nominee, the gut instinct of the person who is will probably be to throw Ryan under the bus. "It's not my plan," they'll say, "I have my own idea. While the Congressman has some very good points, we will be formulating our own plan from the White House..."
You just can't make this race about Obama. It has to be FOR an idea.
May '10
Re: Are We In An Echo Chamber?
Agree wholeheartedly.
Not convinced this would be the case. After the nomination, it is very common for the winner to extend an olive branch even to some of their fiercest rivals, in an effort to re-unify the party after beating each other up (really, in an effort to get their rivals' followers to fall in line behind them). Isn't that how we got George Bush Sr. as the vice president for Reagan?
Jan '11
Re: Are We In An Echo Chamber?
I think being House Budget Leader and Producing that Path to Prosperity lobbying his caucus members, lobbying the other House leaders and getting that vote on the budget ain't exactly 'bean bag' and shows leadership and powers of persuasion.
On the 'policy wonk' aspect, I'd welcome someone that really knows the material - the deficit, debt, budget & tax structure are our largest problem. Obama appears utterly clueless/uninterested in such 'details'.
Jul '11
Re: Are We In An Echo Chamber?
Agreed. The more I think about it, the more I'm coming down on the side of making the stand for entitlement reform, risks and all. As EJHill says above, this election has to be about something - our trajectory makes merely winning this one too modest of a goal.
May '10
Re: Are We In An Echo Chamber?
No doubt there's leadership there, but there are many other things an executive does, and the style of leadership is different.
Bachmann is one of my favorites in the field, for her fire, her principles and her positions on the issues. But I couldn't really get on her bandwagon either (yet) for the same reason.
Edited on Aug 16, 2011 at 2:41pmMay '10
Re: Are We In An Echo Chamber?
But if he doesn't run he's not one of those who needs to be reached out to. And no one else is going to take any arrows for him. To think that a Romney or a Perry would defend him if they thought for a millisecond it would endanger their own chances is delusional.
Jul '10
Re: Are We In An Echo Chamber?
Love Mark Steyn to death, but After America is a eulogy for the West based on the fiscal crisis that is sinking this country. Mark pays lip service to turning it around, but the hurdles are monstrous. The notion that Paul Ryan is better placed in the House, one of 435 representatives with a fragile chairmanship versus a president with a veto worth 1/6th of the vote in each legislature and his pick of an economic team to effect the most important economic recovery in sixty years, to us and the West as a whole.
And he gets the urgency. This is not some abstract distant vagary for Ryan, he understands the immediacy of the existential crisis in a way that is almost miraculous to find in a federal legislator. Right man, right place, right time.
Jul '11
Re: Are We In An Echo Chamber?
Sisyphus: Love Mark Steyn to death, but After America is a eulogy for the West based on the fiscal crisis that is sinking this country. Mark pays lip service to turning it around, but the hurdles are monstrous. The notion that Paul Ryan is better placed in the House, one of 435 representatives with a fragile chairmanship versus a president with a veto worth 1/6th of the vote in each legislature and his pick of an economic team to effect the most important economic recovery in sixty years, to us and the West as a whole.
And he gets the urgency. This is not some abstract distant vagary for Ryan, he understands the immediacy of the existential crisis in a way that is almost miraculous to find in a federal legislator. Right man, right place, right time. · Aug 16 at 3:06pm
Perfect. I'm sold!
Mar '11
Re: Are We In An Echo Chamber?
Yes, after the initial euphoria, I was a little dispirited by the conservative reaction, especially Mr Morrissey's, as well as some on Ricochet - never underestimate Republicans' abilities to shoot themselves in the foot.
Well, I guess we will have to see how it plays out - part of me likes Mr Perry, as he annoys leftists the most (sorry, Mr Obama - I almost wrote socialists). A bigger part likes Mr Ryan - but his lack of executive experience is a concern.
An embarrassment of riches is maybe not such a bad problem - Bachmann, Perry, Ryan - may the best candidate win.
Edited on Aug 16, 2011 at 4:14pmApr '11
Re: Are We In An Echo Chamber?
The man on the white horse. I'm a scratched CD on this subject so I'll shut up.
Sep '10
Re: Are We In An Echo Chamber?
Kowaliczko Tom: I think being House Budget Leader and Producing that Path to Prosperity lobbying his caucus members, lobbying the other House leaders and getting that vote on the budget ain't exactly 'bean bag' and shows leadership and powers of persuasion.
On the 'policy wonk' aspect, I'd welcome someone that really knows the material - the deficit, debt, budget & tax structure are our largest problem. Obama appears utterly clueless/uninterested in such 'details'. · Aug 16 at 2:35pm
I don't disagree Ryan is a heck of a fella. Whoever is the candidate is we will get hammered by the MSM. Ryan is more vulnerable to this because of the Ryan plan, but also more capable of defending it.
However, we should do everything possible to make Obama run on Obamacare, jobs, the economy, the stimulus and the deficit.
Jul '10
Re: Are We In An Echo Chamber?
If we can't make and win the argument that we need entitlement reform and a reduction in the size of government, the country is screwed anyway. We may as well have the guy who can best articulate that argument as our candidate.