Are We Alone In the Universe?
In this brilliant essay Charles Krauthammer discusses that question. And he steers it in a provocative way, one that shows why politics—more specifically, why getting politics right—is so important to any form of intelligent life.
Let me now write perhaps the second-most controversial statement I’ve ever written on Ricochet. The answer to the above question, I believe, is yes – that we humans are the only intelligent beings in the universe. (I believe my first-most controversial statement was that the BCS system in college football might be sort of okay.)
One reason I believe this is that the counter-theory is not falsifiable, in the sense argued by the great philosopher Karl Popper.
To explain this, let me first explain the opposite—that my theory is falsifiable. What this means is that I can imagine an observable event that would make me disbelieve my theory. One such event is simply that aliens visit our planet. Another is that we receive radar signals from a distant planet that unmistakably come from an intelligent source. E.g. suppose the signals, like those in the movie starring Jodie Foster, followed a pattern of prime numbers.
However, the same is not true with the opposite theory. That is, suppose you believe that we are not alone – that somewhere in the universe there are other intelligent beings. What event would make you believe that that is not true? I assert that you cannot imagine such an event. E.g., suppose we send additional spaceships to Mars that conclusively show that no life exists on that planet. You could simply respond, “Well that’s only one planet. It’s still possible that intelligent life exists elsewhere.” No matter what sort of experiment that a scientist conducts, you could respond with a similar statement.
As Popper explained, we should be skeptical of any theory that is not falsifiable.
A second reason is a form of the Fermi Paradox, which asks “If it’s so easy for intelligent beings to arise in the universe, where are they?”
Here are some quick calculations that I’ve done. Over the last 2000 years, human population growth has been about 0.16% a year. Suppose: (i) at least one civilization has existed for at least a billion years (The Earth is about 4.5 billion years old, while the universe is about 13.7 billion years old. If it is easy for intelligent life to arise, then at least one civilization must have arisen before the birth of Earth. If so, then that civilization, if it still exists, must be at least 4.5 billion years old.), and (ii) that civilization has experienced population growth similar to ours. If these two facts are true, then the population of that civilization would be more than 10^700,000. This is more than there are atoms in the universe.
Clearly, if it were easy for intelligent life to arise, and it grew at even a tiny fraction of human population growth, then—assuming such beings could invent technology to colonize other planets—such beings should exist in all corners of the universe. This clearly is not the case. It is one more reason that makes me skeptical that other intelligent life really exists in the universe.
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Aug '10
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
I don't have any idea whether there is other intelligent life in the universe, and I operate under a null assumption that there isn't until I see evidence otherwise. We are currently testing for an affirmation that there is intelligent life, if it finds evidence then I will believe. Your application of the scientific method, even as adapted by Popper, is a good one to apply here. The existence of life is a material claim, therefore a material result should be required.
As for your other reasoning...hmm...
I have some problems with your a priori assumptions.
Why must the civilization be "at least 4.5 billion years old?"
Why must they have created some method of colonizing other planets?
They would have to travel faster than the speed of light to even begin the kind of colonization you are proposing.
It is equally likely that such life forms developed immortality and no longer need to procreate to perpetuate the species.
Besides, all you have really done is created a falsifiable test for the number of atoms in the universe. If your civilization exists, we are vastly wrong about the number of atoms there are.
May '10
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
@~Paules: Your post reminds me of the movie Contact. Twice, Jodie Foster's character says: "If we are alone, it seems like an awful waste of space." That remark fascinates me because it demonstrates how opposite conclusions can be drawn from the same information.
An alternative conclusion is that the vastness of the universe is an expression of God's love. God has given us more than we could ever possibly explore and appreciate. It's like giving the woman you love endless fields of flowers versus giving her a single bouquet. God's love is bountiful and overwhelming. Such expanse also communicates God's incalculable power.
We shouldn't consider only out but also in. The theory of the atom — that everything in our world is ultimately made of one substance or energy — has existed since at least the ancient Greeks. Yet we keep finding more to explore no matter how far "down" we go. Nor should we forget all of the forests, mountains and oceanic environments we have yet to study.
I doubt we will ever know if alien life exists or not. But the grandeur of the universe makes me feel wondrously loved.
Aug '10
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
To add...
What if the universe was "too hot" for any life until 4.5 billion years ago?
Homo-Erectus only emerged 2.5 million years ago -- approximately -- which means it took 4.4975 billion years for us to reach our current state from the origins of the planet.
The universe is 13.7 billion years old, and it took 9.2 billion for our planet to be formed. Who knows what conditions would be required for a species to emerge closer to the big bang? Given that there would have been "more energetic" reactions closer, they may not have been conducive the the creation of inhabitable planets. Those might require equal distance from the point of origin.
None of which really matters. It's just to say that if one is to build an argument against something, one must still have conditions that are testable. You have those in your first hypothesis, less so in your second as its a prioris are themselves questionable hypotheses.
Jan '11
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
"Here are some quick calculations..."
Well, yes, if the underlining assumption is that all relevant variables are constant in the universe, and that all life forms must follow the only developmental pathway you're (sort of) familiar with.
Regrettably, you didn't leave any room for the consideration that we have not yet perceived our ignorance about such matters.
Edited on December 31, 2011 at 1:39amMay '10
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
Humans are so arrogant...it's been so for generations. So nice to see us being consistent as a species.
Who said we are intelligent life?
Mar '11
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
I agree it's a brilliant essay. I think Dr Krauthammer's point is that it's rather unlikely that a species will last long enough to master the warp-speed travel that would be needed to visit us from within the galaxy, let alone other galaxies.
We tend to forget, or not appreciate, how large the Universe is, and how brief is humanity's visit here. It's the same delusion that's behind man-made global warming hysteria.
I'm with Stephen Hawking -- "Meeting a more advanced civilization might be a bit like the original inhabitants of America meeting Columbus. I don't think they were better off for it."
Aug '10
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
You misunderstand the purpose of the Drake Equation. It's not intended to be a tool for calculating the exact number of civilizations in the galaxy - it's merely a tool to be used to organize your thinking. It answers the question, "What do I need to know before I can come up with a good estimate of the number of civilizations?" Each of the terms in the equation can be broken down into many more questions, but the equation gives you a high-level starting point for thinking about the problem. That's all.
Apr '11
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
Thanks Aaron Miller for your statement, it always irks me when people think that because something doesn't make sense to them it clearly must not make sense to God either. When people question why God would create an expansive universe just for us I think of sailing. Stars that are huge distances away, scattered all over the universe, and yet they serve a very useful purpose for us. Who knows how much the emptiness holds in order to benefit the life God made here.
Oct '10
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
Keith Preston: Humans are so arrogant...it's been so for generations. So nice to see us being consistent as a species.
Who said we are intelligent life? · Dec 30 at 4:45pm
Agreed. Mankinds explorations amount to a child skipping a stone across a pond. One of my favorite replies to human arrogance is that we just might be a science project in a petrie dish in some alien students project. Humans need to get over themselves, unlikely at best.
Feb '11
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
raycon: "We grow justly weary of our politics. But we must remember this: Politics — in all its grubby, grasping, corrupt, contemptible manifestations — is sovereign in human affairs. Everything ultimately rests upon it." Krauthammer
The search for "intelligent life" elsewhere in the universe is the hope that substitutes for God in the mind of the unbeliever. And to believe that politics is our savior is to indulge the most futile of all delusions. · Dec 30 at 3:50pm
He didn't say that politics is "our savior." He said that it "is sovereign in human affairs." By which he means that it is only through politics that we settle our differences about how to govern our society. And he acknowledges that politics is "grubby, grasping, corrupt [and] contemptible." I find it hard to disagree with what he said. And are you saying that only unbelievers think there might be intelligent life elsewhere in the universe?
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
Sorry Charlie. There's no one out there.
It takes a heck of a lot more than just finding the right sized planet in the goldilocks zone to get life as we know it. To get an atmosphere and the proper mix of chemicals by chance takes odds that would baffle the average mind. Sort of like the junkyard that blows up and the pieces come down in a perfectly formed airplane.
If someone is out there, they were put there on purpose.
Oct '10
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
sdb
raycon: "We grow justly weary of our politics. But we must remember this: Politics — in all its grubby, grasping, corrupt, contemptible manifestations — is sovereign in human affairs. Everything ultimately rests upon it." Krauthammer
The search for "intelligent life" elsewhere in the universe is the hope that substitutes for God in the mind of the unbeliever. And to believe that politics is our savior is to indulge the most futile of all delusions. · Dec 30 at 3:50pm
He didn't say that politics is "our savior." He said that it "is sovereign in human affairs." By which he means that it is only through politics that we settle our differences about how to govern our society. And he acknowledges that politics is "grubby, grasping, corrupt [and] contemptible." I find it hard to disagree with what he said. And are you saying that only unbelievers think there might be intelligent life elsewhere in the universe? · Dec 30 at 7:58pm
No. I am only saying that a person who does not believe in his creator can place his hope in intelligent alien life, because he needs somewhere to place it. The believer is merely curious and finds it interesting.
May '10
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
All interesting thoughts and theories, but Occam's Razor... the distances involved are so big that we first need to deal with that, be it travel or communication that's way faster than the speed of light. OK, maybe it's all futile, since "simplicity" on this level may not be knowable? Happy "2012"!
Edited on December 31, 2011 at 5:23amFeb '11
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
Interesting, thank you. I guess everyone I've ever encountered who thinks about it falls into the camp of being genuinely curious. Not sure I've ever met anyone who "places hope" in intelligent alien life. Do you mean in the sense that they think such alien life would somehow solve our problems, tell us the secret of life, etc.? I just hope that if intelligent aliens do exist, they don't eat us.
Oct '10
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
Humankind simply refuses to beleive in anything save its own supreme place in the universe and will create any control systems to justify same. Should there be other life froms in the universe, they would likely be just as arrogant and selfish of their faiths as humans.
The closed mindeness of humankind in this will always create conflict and the demise of itself.
If anything, we would be a case study for other species on what not to do.
We have neither proved ourselves worthy of survival through politics or varied religions.
Edited on December 31, 2011 at 5:39amFeb '11
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
Tommy De Seno:
To get an atmosphere and the proper mix of chemicals by chance takes odds that would baffle the average mind.
Current estimates are that there are between 10^22 and 10^24 stars in the universe. Those numbers are pretty baffling to the average mind (i.e., mine), but they suggest that if it really were a matter of chance, there would still be plenty of opportunity for it to have happened many times. But I'm not sure that it's a matter of chance. There is not an infinite number of elements, and the limited number of elements that do exist do not occur with equal frequency. What I'm getting at is that the reason our atmosphere and our mix of chemicals is what it is was not a random occurrence. It reflects the relative abundance in the universe of hydrogen, nitrogen, carbon, and oxygen. Planets with a makeup roughly similar to our own are more likely than planets made up from the less abundant elements.
Dec '10
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
I certainly hope so, for the sake of life itself, if nothing else.
Having all the life forms in the entire universe on a single planet seems like poor planning on someone's part (like backing up your important files by making copies of them on the same hard drive).
If there is a God, he's not stupid enough to put all his eggs in once basket, and if there isn't a God and it's all just an accident, it can happen anywhere the same as it can happen here.
In the vastness of everything that is out there, it seems silly to pronounce with certainty that life exists nowhere else.
That, and it would make me immensely sad to find out that this is it.
If we are the only intelligent life that the universe could muster, I'd feel kinda sad for the universe.
Not because humans are bad or anything like that, but because out of infinite possibilities, only one was realized, and that's kinda sad (IMO at least).
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
sdb
Tommy De Seno:
To get an atmosphere and the proper mix of chemicals by chance takes odds that would baffle the average mind.
Current estimates are that there are between 10^22 and 10^24 stars in the universe. Those numbers are pretty baffling to the average mind (i.e., mine), but they suggest that if it really were a matter of chance, there would still be plenty of opportunity for it to have happened many times.
Your calculation gets us nowhere. You could line up that many planets and not have life because as I said you need a great deal more than a sun, a planet and a certain distance.
I'm not giving it justice when I say "great deal more." Not only do you need a great deal more ingredients, they have to have developed in the a particular order, in very percise amounts.
When you calculate the odds of that happening, the amount of stars out there only give us an extremely remote chance of having other life. Like I said, sort of like a junkyard blowing up and the pieces landing in a perfectly formed airplane.
Edited on December 31, 2011 at 6:38amJul '11
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
I am still looking for proof that there is ANY intelligent life in the universe, much less more than one. Every once in a while I think I see indications that one might exist on this planet but there seems to be many more indications that this is not so.
May '10
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
Even if all of the crazy number of conditions for intelligent life were present on some other planet, anyone who has flipped a coin will tell you that 50/50 odds do not mean the side you called will be up half the time. Odds don't mean much.
Edited on December 31, 2011 at 7:38am