Are We Alone In the Universe?
In this brilliant essay Charles Krauthammer discusses that question. And he steers it in a provocative way, one that shows why politics—more specifically, why getting politics right—is so important to any form of intelligent life.
Let me now write perhaps the second-most controversial statement I’ve ever written on Ricochet. The answer to the above question, I believe, is yes – that we humans are the only intelligent beings in the universe. (I believe my first-most controversial statement was that the BCS system in college football might be sort of okay.)
One reason I believe this is that the counter-theory is not falsifiable, in the sense argued by the great philosopher Karl Popper.
To explain this, let me first explain the opposite—that my theory is falsifiable. What this means is that I can imagine an observable event that would make me disbelieve my theory. One such event is simply that aliens visit our planet. Another is that we receive radar signals from a distant planet that unmistakably come from an intelligent source. E.g. suppose the signals, like those in the movie starring Jodie Foster, followed a pattern of prime numbers.
However, the same is not true with the opposite theory. That is, suppose you believe that we are not alone – that somewhere in the universe there are other intelligent beings. What event would make you believe that that is not true? I assert that you cannot imagine such an event. E.g., suppose we send additional spaceships to Mars that conclusively show that no life exists on that planet. You could simply respond, “Well that’s only one planet. It’s still possible that intelligent life exists elsewhere.” No matter what sort of experiment that a scientist conducts, you could respond with a similar statement.
As Popper explained, we should be skeptical of any theory that is not falsifiable.
A second reason is a form of the Fermi Paradox, which asks “If it’s so easy for intelligent beings to arise in the universe, where are they?”
Here are some quick calculations that I’ve done. Over the last 2000 years, human population growth has been about 0.16% a year. Suppose: (i) at least one civilization has existed for at least a billion years (The Earth is about 4.5 billion years old, while the universe is about 13.7 billion years old. If it is easy for intelligent life to arise, then at least one civilization must have arisen before the birth of Earth. If so, then that civilization, if it still exists, must be at least 4.5 billion years old.), and (ii) that civilization has experienced population growth similar to ours. If these two facts are true, then the population of that civilization would be more than 10^700,000. This is more than there are atoms in the universe.
Clearly, if it were easy for intelligent life to arise, and it grew at even a tiny fraction of human population growth, then—assuming such beings could invent technology to colonize other planets—such beings should exist in all corners of the universe. This clearly is not the case. It is one more reason that makes me skeptical that other intelligent life really exists in the universe.
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Comments:
Nov '10
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
Tim Groseclose:
As Popper explained, we should be skeptical of any theory that is not falsifiable.
Skeptical, yes. Assertive, no.
Dec '10
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
It's unlikely any civilization would survive a billion years. Few species survive even a significant fraction of that time span.
It is possible that a planet may have had a succession of intelligent species and their respective arrays of civilizations for a billion years, but that does not necessarily mean that any one of those civilizations learned how to (or cared to) travel or communicate over interstellar distances. Maybe well before the tiny window in which mankind has learned to listen for radio signals from space, other intelligent races tried to communicate in ways we might have detected but decided that there was no one out there to hear them.
Or it may be that there are intelligent creatures on other planets who haven't yet developed technology to make off-planet contact.
Or it may be that there are creatures on other planets who need a few tens of millions more years to get to the point where they have the intellectual wherewithal to consider the question of life on other planets.
The issue isn't only the existence of intelligent life elsewhere, but the timing and location of any such possible life.
Nov '10
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
If I was an intelligent alien who came across humans, I'd hide.
Possibly, deep undercover on Ricochet
Edited on December 30, 2011 at 10:12pmJun '10
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
I agree that Krauthammer's column today is brilliant. I dsagree that we are the only intelligent life in the universe. I, of course, have no scientific evidence to support my belief, but given the massiveness of the universe, it seems only logical to me that it is so. I fear neither of our positions will be proven in our lifetimes.
Aug '10
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
Aodhan: If I was an intelligent alien who came across humans, I'd hide.
Or go deep undercover on Ricochet.
Yeah right, "if".
Feb '11
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
This is a weak argument. Population need not expand indefinitely. Look at the birth rates in Japan and western Europe today -- they are below replacement level. Indeed, on this planet anyway, there seems to be an inverse correlation between material advancement and the birth rate.
Mar '11
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
I, too, am of the belief that Earth is the only planet with life. My anecdotal evidence is that the people who try to convince me there is life on other planets have the same kind of stench as the people who for years tried to convince me global warming was all man's fault. In both cases, they'll cite bogus proof--ufo sightings later proven to be hoaxes in the former case, manufactured data in the latter--to support their positions.
In addition, my suspicion--no proof whatsoever--is this effort to find life on other planets is really a movement hoping to undermine religion, specifically Christianity. If life were to be found on other planets, it might put a dent in the whole Garden of Eden thing--that's a layman's opinion since I'm no Bible scholar.
Finally, it's funny to me how scientists--a profession not used to dealing with the media--can so quickly find the nearest journalist when they allegedly find water on a moon. These guys are just a little TOO eager to be famous and get their names in the paper. That kind of eagerness always makes me suspicious.
Jan '11
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
Perhaps there were many Earth-like planets sporting advanced civilizations...before the Big Bang and the Massive Contraction then led up to this most current one -- current being relative.
Jun '10
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
As noted above, I believe there is intelligent life elsewhere in the universe--my belief has some religious basis and seems intuitively correct. But I'm with you on the whole UFO thing. They may exist, but I don't think they've been here.
One of the big problems with the climate change alarmists is that they lack the humility or competence to admit their evidence is far less than definitive. I believe life exists elsewhere--but my belief does not create a scientific consensus.
Edited on December 30, 2011 at 11:17pmJun '10
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
A few questions:
Do you suppose God created a massive universe as mere wallpaper for a single sentient species? Or do you think perhaps that a Creator of infinite love and wisdom might have a very large family indeed?
Do you suppose the reason we can't detect life on other planets (radio waves and the like) is because the celestial authorities don't want us to? Maybe we've been placed under quarantine since "the fall" so as not to spread the virus of insurrection.
Do you suppose the universe was constructed with distances measured in light years specifically to keep different species from interacting? I've got to suppose that God has a logical reason for the size and scope of His creation.
Apr '11
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
If life arose spontaneously without a creator on this planet, surely it's possible to arise somewhere else. Even if the odds are a billion to one of any particular star system having intelligent life, there are many billions of stars in our galaxy and many billion galaxies, so there ought to be several others intelligent species out there.
But what if life on Earth was created by God? It doesn't sound likely to me that God would create a universe with billions of galaxies to just populate one lonely planet.
Sep '11
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
I think the Popper argument is very clever, and convincing. I don't find the the 10^700,000 argument particularly germane. If that proves that an alien race can't exist, then it proves that we can't exist.
Jul '10
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
Earth is the womb of the Universe. Everything else is to be inhabited by Us once We're ready to leave.
In the span of time, the period of Our space exploration has been merely a contraction.
Sep '10
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
Just a comment on the Krauthammer column: the "Drake equation" is one of the worst pieces of pseudo-scientific mumbo-jumbo ever perpetrated by a scientist. Very few of the variables in that equation can be remotely estimated with any accuracy, so the whole thing is a scientific-looking bit of complete garbage.
May '10
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
I am agnostic on intelligent life elsewhere. Doesn't seem to me to be any other rational position at this point. And I don't expect to find hard evidence in my remaining lifetime.
But the proposal has several flaws, The population growth formula is flawed on its face. What about war and disease? A highly evolved, highly intelligent life form might well have created highly powerful bio-weapons/diseases or waged highly destructive forms of war that would supress population.
The vast distances of space mean that some other intelligent life form would have had to develop radio transmissions many hundreds of millions of years ago for us to hear them now....by which time they might have killed themselves off as above.
And what is intelligent life on another planet? would we recognize it? And how would you classify life such as a cockroach that has been successful for millions of years?
But for a fun read on the subject, check CS Lewis' "Out of the Silent Planet".
Mar '11
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
There is an inevitable anthropomorphic bent to this question whenever I have seen it brought up. I do not admonish this but realize it does not go far enough. It should be more properly phrased as, "Will humanity ever encounter other intelligent life?".
Consider this, perhaps the Universe is teeming with other civilizations but for reasons of technology or physics humanity will never communicate with them or even know of their existence. Do they matter? When we are considering the concerns of humanity I say they do not. Whether the Universe is completely empty or overflowing with other sentient species which we will never know, how is there any difference between the two for us?
The real question is whether we will ever communicate with another sentient species. Fermi answered this decisively, regardless of their existence we will not.
Oct '10
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
Frank J. Tipler eloquently made the case for the non-existence of intelligent extraterrestrials in 1980 in “Extraterrestrial Intelligent Beings Do Not Exist”.
I consider this not a disappointment but a challenge. We get to direct the evolution of the universe toward the ends we wish.
May '10
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
Roberto, above, raises another interesting point. What if there are other forms of intelligent life even right here on earth but which communicate in some manner not sensible to humans? We know that there are species that communicate chemically., for example. But what if... Just suppose.... What if the trees really are alive in a JRR Tolkein-sort of way. Or the rocks are communicating in some way that we do not even imagine.
Frankly, I'm inclined to think that we all too often have our hands ful trying to discern if there is intelligent HUMAN life on earth.
Oct '10
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
Well, my goodness. When the government spent billions on space exploration, the endeavor was about extending the intelligent species, man, out into the universe. No longer of interest.
Now we spend that money funding projects to search for intelligent life elsewhere in the universe.
Shazam... now "scientists" smell the next government global warming money pit. Wow, I'll bet by this time next year a few dozen "might be intelligent life" planets will be identified, and entire careers will be under construction, based mostly on fiction and fraud.
Oct '10
Re: Are We Alone In the Universe?
"We grow justly weary of our politics. But we must remember this: Politics — in all its grubby, grasping, corrupt, contemptible manifestations — is sovereign in human affairs. Everything ultimately rests upon it." Krauthammer
The search for "intelligent life" elsewhere in the universe is the hope that substitutes for God in the mind of the unbeliever. And to believe that politics is our savior is to indulge the most futile of all delusions.