Are Traditional Universities Facing Extinction?
Is it possible that at some point in the future traditional universities will begin to disappear? Have the tools for their demise been put in place – the Internet, personal computers, iPads and other tablet PCs, videoconferencing apps, online publishing and online libraries of very affordable and in many cases, free content. What else needs to happen? Visionary entrepreneurs perhaps backed by VC money enticing some of the best professorial talent to leave their current institutions for more lucrative income and profit participation in new online university ventures?
What are parents and students (and in some cases taxpayers) paying for today beyond the acquisition of a diploma? Administrative overhead? Athletic programs? Housing? Maintenance of buildings? Gardeners? Security? Contraception? Liability insurance? Legal counsel? Bail?
What of accreditation? If an online university boasted a more impressive faculty and curricula than say Stanford, Yale, Oxford, Cambridge, Berkeley, Harvard, then how important would traditional accreditation be? Is it possible that at some point a diploma from an online institution may even have more clout than an ivy-covered brick and mortar one?
Yes, all of the important socializing aspects of university life may disappear. Many students, of course, make lifelong friends on campus or find their spouses who may or may not be lifelong mates. University towns have thrived around the traditional university, to serve the needs of faculty, students and staff. So, if the traditional university disappears then by extension, university towns might disappear as well. On a positive note, the more radical hybrid of social/anti-social activities – like protests and riots either motivated by winning or losing a sports title or vandalizing school property because capitalism is of course, evil and unfair would also disappear…at least if the university campus is no longer used as an academic institution.
The extinction of the traditional university, if it occurs, may be a sad chapter in the long history of civilization since most would argue that the university shares a substantial portion of the credit for making us civilized in the first place.
But consider also that the easy availability of college coursework taught by the best professors in the world to those living in less affluent parts of the world who might never haven been able to afford to attend or be qualified for a traditional university may eventually result in another renaissance, enlightenment or technological revolution giving them the opportunity to learn and then create or do amazing things.
So, the question is, will technology, new developments on the horizon and the opportunity to be taught by the best professors in the world make the demise of the traditional university inevitable?
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Sep '10
Re: Are Traditional Universities Facing Extinction?
Traditional campuses won't go away completely. For one thing, it's difficult to become a good teacher if you don't meet students face to face. I'd like to think my teaching has improved with time, and it's because of the give and take I've had with students in the classroom. So if you want to get online lectures from the "best professors in the world" there has to be a place where these scholars learn how to teach.
But the times, they are a changin'. There will most certainly be a lot more schools offering online courses, and those that don't will probably wither away. The economics are compelling. I think some traditional campuses will survive, but only after a shakeout.
Edited on May 6, 2012 at 5:03amJun '10
Re: Are Traditional Universities Facing Extinction?
I don't see how they can continue to exist in their current form.
One thing I look at as negative is the end of the liberal education: the reading of the great books, a decent training in culture, etc.
The problem is that most universities have already destroyed this institution. There are exceptions, such as Hillsdale, but most educational institutions teach false, PC versions of a liberal education that merely indoctrinate leftists. If we're not going to teach the traditional classical curriculum, then let's get purely practical. Teach engineers to be engineers; lawyers to be lawyers; doctors to be doctors.
I am willing to bet there would be a market for private specialty colleges to create two-year or three-year programs that teaches the traditional elements of a liberal education. Let the private sector do it so that governmental PC policies don't destroy them.
Edited on May 6, 2012 at 5:05amSep '10
Re: Are Traditional Universities Facing Extinction?
I think economic reality is going to help solve this problem. Programs such as "gender studies" are supported by a system whose cost has increased by more than inflation each year for the past few decades. This can't go on, and someday soon it won't. At that point a lot of liberal arts departments will be against the wall and the infighting will be vicious. (Indeed, it's starting to happen already.) I expect that a lot of "studies" programs will disappear, or become boutique majors for the indolent wealthy; and colleges will start listening to what students' parents want them to learn. But the transition will be ugly.
Edited on May 6, 2012 at 5:20amJun '10
Re: Are Traditional Universities Facing Extinction?
As a student, if you can see a multimedia lecture, one that can be paused, or repeated to get something you missed, why wouldn't you want that? I think they'll have to do that everywhere eventually, because students will demand it. Next step, global distribution and economies of scale.
May '10
Re: Are Traditional Universities Facing Extinction?
My wife and I are considering community college for the first two years of our kids' college ed -- something we never thought we'd do. Price has become such an outrage, so immoral really, that we feel it's almost our duty to contribute to the bursting of the bubble, even though we could absorb (barely) full four-year university costs for both kids. Hopefully we're not alone in pushing back.
Edited on May 6, 2012 at 6:07amJun '10
Re: Are Traditional Universities Facing Extinction?
To add to that, it seems that those professors who bring their course work alive will increasingly be in demand for more online video lectures. It's similar to what happened in the early 60's when there was a paradigm shift in presidential politics because of television. Those who were comfortable with the camera and those whom the camera "liked" tended to connect more readily with the electorate. It's one reason that seasoned actor Reagan seemed more appealing and even more presidential than President Jimmy Carter.
Video college lectures are in their infancy in terms of production values and the more professional and polished...and entertaining...they become the more they have the potential to connect with a greater audience of students - globally.
Mar '11
Re: Are Traditional Universities Facing Extinction?
They're not facing extinction, but it's damn sure time for a culling.
Let me say this clearly: we have too many 4 year colleges and 2 year community colleges. Some of them need to close. I repeat, some of them should close.
In my metro area alone... an area in the south with a combined tri-county population of less than 500K, there are three state sponsored universities, all of them with graduate programs as well, within 15 minutes drive of each other. There are two technical schools within 10 minutes drive of each other. That's not to mention the numerous private colleges in that area. And just outside that tri-county area... about one hour's drive away from me... is a national top 50 state university, with a major junior college in the same area. Look at the sheer number of colleges in the University of California and Cal State systems. In some places, it seems like there's a campus on every two roads or so.
And we wonder why government never seems to shrink. Not only do we have too many rice bowls, but like every other government agency, they constantly grow themselves.
Jun '10
Re: Are Traditional Universities Facing Extinction?
I don't know if Apple is tracking or making available demographics for iTunes University but it would be interesting to see if the enormous amount of online lectures, books and coursework that is posted there is being devoured more by younger college-aged adults or by post-college aged (read middle-aged working and non-working) adults. But certainly a most cost-effective way to supplement anyone's education or lack thereof.
Jun '10
Re: Are Traditional Universities Facing Extinction?
If the university that they're transferring to is close-by, and the equivalent classes there (in their major) use different textbooks, buy those textbooks as a supplement to the community c0llege course books. It can make the transition smoother. The books are expensive, but still cheap compared to the courses.
May '10
Re: Are Traditional Universities Facing Extinction?
I worked at the University of California for 37 years. I would not encourage anyone to send their kids there unless they were an extremely bright, highly motivated student with a clear sense of direction and wanted to end up a doctor or an engineer or in the physical sciences. The National Association of Scholars recently released a blistering report on the University of California maintaining that it is no longer really possible to get a good education there for the "average" student. I believe the universities and colleges have shot themselves in the foot. I do expect most colleges to die out. Universities that remain will have a niche: liberal arts ala Hillsdale, religious connections, research, high-end technical programs. Teaching for the sake of career acquisition or development will become either a "National" or a "Phoenix" style program, or will be developed in house or contracted by employers where they can control quality. Ivies will persist because of their socialization function for those within The Bubble. But state colleges and universities without a strong research role will be gone, victims of technology. http://www.nas.org/images/documents/A_Crisis_of_Competence.pdf
Jul '11
Re: Are Traditional Universities Facing Extinction?
In honor of this topic I bring you a glimpse of the future.
http://www.khanacademy.org/
Mar '11
Re: Are Traditional Universities Facing Extinction?
There will still be a need for laboratory sections, and a lot of the learning that goes on in the classroom is due to crosstalk with other students, even if it is only the cute girl asking the nerdly guy to explain eigendecomposition or spline interpolation. (Hey, that's my college social life you're laughing at!)
The humanities will probably get hammered, and get hammered hard. Hopefully the good stuff stays and the drivel goes, but there's no reason to hold out much hope for that.
As far as pure book learning goes, go Great or go home.
Dec '10
Re: Are Traditional Universities Facing Extinction?
Discussed this topic with a good friend who is the CFO/COO of a private university (approx 5K undergrad students). He indicated that the number of people entering colleges has peaked (happened in 2008) and is on a downward trend, so the schools are now going to be battling each other for a diminishing piece of the pie.
Personally, I have come to see the college route as a trap for many. Is it really worth racking up anywhere from $20K-$100K in debt to "find out what I want to do with my life"? But an average kid goes to college, takes out $10K per year in student loans (and many still don't finish in 4 years) and immediately has to find a job and start paying his debts upon graduating. That, or he could go on to grad school and rack up even more debt. But the "college experience" becomes the only adventure many of them will ever have.
Some professions require a college education. If my kid is interested in one that doesn't, however, I'm encouraging the CC route or forego it all together for a while.
Dec '10
Re: Are Traditional Universities Facing Extinction?
This topic raises a lot of good questions. When will the college education bubble burst, as it must? Will the end of these liberal seminaries allow non-leftists to regain control of the education establishment? What about corporate universities, especially in technical fields (when I worked for GTE, I thought it should develop an on-line training program. However, protecting intellectual property was a hurdle back then)?
I'm generally a traditionalist, but I'll make an exception in this case. I'm for anything that breaks the hold of the Left on 1) education, 2) media, and 3) the judiciary. I think there's a chance if we get 1), 2) and 3) will follow.
And let's not forget, some conservatives may have already initiated the demise of the dinosaur universities... Prager University: Give us five minutes, we'll give you a semester.
Feb '12
Re: Are Traditional Universities Facing Extinction?
I think one of the necessary developments in education will be the recognition that "teaching" is a combination of skills, including lecturing and mentoring. A college can economize by hiring a few experienced lecturers (whether to lecture in person or through technology) while still providing a far larger number of "mentors" to answer questions and create that student-teacher connection.
At my engineering school, the 400+ person physics classes were taught this way. The 5 hour class involved two hours of weekly lectures by the best prof in the department, then two hours of "recitation" -- answering homework questions and administering quizzes lead by less showy profs -- plus the weekly lab taught by a grad student.
As for whether online groups of prof could be as prestigious as a meat-space institution, consider this: if the bloggers of the Volokh Conspiracy were a law school faculty, they would be the most cited and influential law school in the country.
http://volokh.com/2009/02/20/rating-the-scholarly-impact-of-the-vc-faculty/
May '10
Re: Are Traditional Universities Facing Extinction?
One can only hope.
This reminds me of all the talk about our "unsustainable" economic follies. Somehow, it goes on and on. Private donors will keep bad university programs alive.
Colleges have a captive market. Employers will continue to demand that piece of paper simply because it's the norm.
Online universities are on the rise, but they are subject to accreditors controlled by traditional universities. These new schools won't cut into big university profits without being smacked by political intervention.
Online courses and community colleges offer students cheaper options that do not currently threaten the profits of the major universities. The quality of instruction was equal in my experience. But employers will remain more impressed by degrees from major universities. That would change if universities like Harvard or UT gave employers simple online access to graduate transcripts, but they have no incentive to do so.
Jun '10
Re: Are Traditional Universities Facing Extinction?
Interesting post, Brian.
I think that this is very plausible, maybe even likely.
What it makes me think about, though, is just what it is that these academies have become today. Is it possible that the fact that they were able to be taken over by Marxists is proof that they were already in decline? Such that the people who really count can't be bothered to be involved with them? University campuses are not -- in any way -- the venue of great movements in our modern society.
Here's another proof of their decline: percentage of males in the student body. This is the canary in the coal mine. Something is wrong when a society can't interest men -- because men are always the tip of the spear into the future.
Jun '10
Re: Are Traditional Universities Facing Extinction?
So, in essence what many seem to be saying is that because there are a lot of entrenched interests (government, teachers' unions, accreditation panels, employers) who rely on the status quo of the present system, then even though the tools are in place to disrupt the status quo, it will take something even more pivotal.
Would it have to be something on the scale as the collapse of the student loan program system? Or the collapse of the greater economy forcing students to look for any kind of work they can find? Or will it be less dramatic and more of a gradual transformation?
Perhaps because of the complexity of the educational institution other industrial upheavals that have occurred and are occurring because of the democratization of technology and information - are not analogous. Or did many of those in publishing, printing, computing, photography, music, movies and other industries also feel that their particular bastions were safe from the unskilled, untrained and uneducated masses who were making all that noise from the other side of the parapets?
Apr '12
Re: Are Traditional Universities Facing Extinction?
University is still a useful hurdle for employees to see if someone can jump hurdles. If the goal is to get a job, I will look at any degree and university if the candidate takes initiative and calls me. The time when degrees matter is when I do a search and get over 100 resumes. Then I choose by university and degree (English lit banished). The Ivey league are a hurdle system for marriage and employment. My in-laws all went and their attitude about how great they are, not their education, was eye opening. My sister in law is in Boston and talks about how to get her boys into the right schools. I focus on getting knowledge into my sons' heads. My education was Chingola, Zambia, truly the deepest part if Africa, so I know the dirty little secret - if you read great books and have parents who are interested, you can go far. The Khan academy will change lives for those wanting to build brains, not so good for marriage, connected jobs or becoming President. The Ivey schools are missing the fact that their rigid control over who gets the good jobs is slipping.
Sep '10
Re: Are Traditional Universities Facing Extinction?
True; we're seeing this at my institution. Which brings me to your second point:
This is why the most left-wing departments will be in trouble at many campuses. There's no point in graduating with a degree in Peace Studies and $50,000 in debt, and students and families know it. All of the liberal arts departments (including the good ones, such as foreign languages) will be struggling to make ends meet as students opt more and more for pre-professional programs.