James Taranto calls our attention to a piece called "Four Ways ObamaCare Could Still Fail", noting that it appears not on a conservative media outlet but on the liberal Democrat site TalkingPointsMemo.com.

Lest we expect an analysis of problems with the law, however, the author, Sahil Kapur, leads with the obvious -- the law's biggest problem is the GOP ("Republicans remain committed to botching ObamaCare's implementation"). These are the reasons Kapur fears ObamaCare might sink:

1. Americans don't like it. “I would rank the number one obstacle to be ‘social acceptance,’” said Jonathan Gruber, a professor at MIT who helped craft the Affordable Care Act. Americans dislike the law not because they're looking at the law on its merits and making a considered assessment, but because Republicans talk smack about it. “I think that the biggest obstacle to ACA implementation is the relentless negativity and opposition of the Republicans and their media outlets,” said Tim Jost, a law professor at Washington and Lee University and an expert on health care law. (Because, of course, Americans are so blindly receptive to the message put forth by Republicans and their media outlets. Just ask Mitt Romney.)

2. States are declining to expand Medicaid. Thirteen governors are refusing to get on board because of "pressure from the right."

3. States are refusing to build insurance marketplaces. Kapur makes this argument: 

The law encourages states to set up and run their own one-stop marketplaces to connect sellers and buyers of health insurance — the central mechanism through which its subsidies and coverage guarantees are actualized. Although states had the ability to opt out, it seemed like a no-brainer because if they decline to set one up, the federal government is required to craft and operate one for them. 

(If the federal government will swoop in and take over unless the state agrees to its terms, is encourage quite the mot juste?) Kapur notes that ObamaCare "lacks a funding mechanism for Department of Health and Human Services to set up exchanges for states that decline to do so themselves," which throws a monkey wrench into this whole setup. He laments that Republicans who resisted being strong-armed into setting up exchanges will likely also resist appropriating additional money for the HHS to step in and do it. Fancy that.

And finally:

4. The nullification of the Medicare Cost-Cutting Board or IPAB, otherwise known by cranky Red staters as death panels. This nullification will be caused by Senate Republicans who "can -- and have signaled their intention to -- filibuster nominees to the board."

Taranto notes that that isn't the only issue confronting IPAB. Not only are some House Democrats against it, but "Kapur ignores another problem, reported last month by the Washington Post's Sarah Kliff: ObamaCare proponents despair of finding enough experts to serve on the 15-man panel, 'a federal job where the compensation is low, the political controversy high and the ultimate payoff unclear.'"

Kapur's argument amounts to the following: Democrats passed a law that had and still has insufficient public support (points 1 and 4), that cannot achieve its goals without unconstitutional means (point 2), that did not allocate the necessary resources to accomplish its objectives (point 3), and that lacks and still lacks even minimal support across the political aisle (all four points).

That sounds very much like the conservative critique of ObamaCare. At this point it's fair to say that ObamaCare opponents have won the argument. Of course, since supporters won the political battle three years ago (and Obama won re-election), this monstrosity is now the law of the land, ensuring that both sides' victories will have been Pyrrhic.

Comments:


Israel P.
Joined
Feb '11
Israel P.

I thought the IPAB was meant to decide what to approve and what to reject. What they reject is what makes them death panels.

So if they have to approve, the default is that procedures don't get done.

"FOURTEEN PEOPLE DIE THIS WEEK BECAUSE EVIL REPUBLICANS WON'T APPROVE PANEL WHICH AUTHORIZES LIFE-SAVING PROCEDURES."

Does that work for our side?

Frederick Key
Joined
Jul '12
Frederick Key

It should still be thrown out just because its penalties are now considered taxes, and tax laws can't originate in the Senate as this monstrosity did. God bless the Pacific Legal Foundation in its battle on this, but more and more I think the courts will prove gutless despite the very clear wording in the Constitution. We're neither a nation of laws or men, just handouts.

HVTs
Joined
Oct '10
HVTs

Can we not summarize Kapur's point as: if it weren't for these three pesky evils---free-thinking citizens, individual States free to resist Federal dictates, periodic free elections---what wonders Lord Obama could provide his minions.  The solution is obvious . . . to properly care for his subjects, Obama needs to be freed from the constraints under which lesser mortals must operate.  Why, come to think of it, we should be thanking his Lordship for graciously suffering us fools.

Mike Hinton
Joined
Sep '12
Michael Hinton

"Americans cause downfall of benevolent healthcare law by refusing to be productive enough and taxed enough to sustain it due to Republican, Red state, tea-party pressure."

Edited on February 18, 2013 at 3:14pm
KC Mulville
Joined
Jan '11
KC Mulville

This is what happens to government by consent of the governed ... without the consent.

~Paules
Joined
Jun '10
~Paules

Kapur misses the obvious.  Obamacare will fail because it's too complex and too expensive.  You don't need to be a Johns Hopkins neurosurgeon to understand the problem.  

Tom Lindholtz
Joined
May '10
Tom Lindholtz

Is it any wonder that the pondering and advocacy of political IDEAS is a pointless and futile exercise? Any rational American recognizes that our freedom to make our own choices is rapidly vanishing and there is little one can do about it. The choices that now exist are, make a big stink about it and make of yourself a target, or make the best of a bad situation and enjoy what freedom remains for however long it may.

HVTs
Joined
Oct '10
HVTs
~Paules: Kapur misses the obvious.  Obamacare will fail because it's too complex and too expensive.  You don't need to be a Johns Hopkins neurosurgeon to understand the problem. 

The beauty of Progressivism is it's incapable of being disproved.  Too complex?  No, we just need to pull together, try a little harder, overcome resistance.  (It's that latter notion that eventually gets you to Gulags, "reeducation camps" . . . if our great plans aren't being achieved it must be "wreckers", "saboteurs", "class enemies", the TEA Party who are undermining us.)

Too expensive?  No, the "privileged" need to be less selfish, the "rich" need to "give a little bit more", the government needs to re-order priorities ('less guns, more butter').  To this day some will tell you that Marx’s brilliant theory wasn’t wrong, just never properly implemented.

Dr. Carson is a rare exception. You don't need to be a neurosurgeon to believe Leftist fairy tales, but it helps to have an advanced degree in the social sciences or humanities. Those degrees usually mean full indoctrination into a Left wing worldview. As George Orwell said, “Some ideas are so stupid that only intellectuals believe them.”

Mothership_Greg
Joined
Nov '11
Mothership_Greg

CMS is always at least several months behind in nearly everything that it does.  It has been this way for years.  Consider the following language:

Please be advised that CMS anticipates delays for all of the FY 2013 PC Pricer releases (IPPS, IRF, IPF, LTCH, SNF, ESRD and HH). CMS is in the process of transitioning to new software products to support the back-end development of all of the PC Pricers. This transition is expected to increase the initial development time. Executable files will be made available once the transition is complete, sometime between January 1 and March 31, 2013.

Speaking specifically about the IPPS Pricer, the program which is supposed to tell hospitals what they are going to get paid for inpatient discharges, effective 10/1/12, is still unavailable.  "Sometime between January 1 and March 31" doesn't cut it in the private sector.

Somehow, I find it hard to believe that it is Republicans' fault that massive bureaucracies are inefficient, but that's probably because I'm not a member of the reality-based community.

Nick Stuart
Joined
May '10
Nick Stuart

The road to single payer lies through the failure of the Affordable Care Act.

My hypothesis is that the authors of the ACA didn't care whether it would work or not. Their aim was to create such a gigantic mess that the public would be screaming for single payer (since the public never screams for less free stuff, making repeal to the status quo ante impossible).

By the time I get to my final days I'll count myself blessed to have adequate pain medication and a safe, comfortable place to die in peace (which is still a heckuva lot more that most people throughout history, and even throughout the world today have).

HVTs
Joined
Oct '10
HVTs

Nick Stuart: The road to single payer lies through the failure of the Affordable Care Act.

My hypothesis is that the authors of the ACA didn't care whether it would work or not. Their aim was to create such a gigantic mess that the public would be screaming for single payer.

I'm more inclined to think hubris and inexperience on the part of the authors, who I think were young staffers working behind closed doors, right?  But what excuses elected Congressmen and Senators?  Did they hold any hearings, ask any hard questions, demand answers, have a clue what they were signing on to?  It's legislative malpractice as far as I can tell.

You are probably correct that this will become one more in a string of crises that Obama hasn't/won't let go to waste.

Edited on February 19, 2013 at 1:51am

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