A few days ago, I drew attention to a Gallup poll indicating that, for the first time in the last twenty years, Americans thought better of the Republican Party than of the Democrats. Later that same day, I pointed to a Pew Foundation poll reaffirming the drift towards the Republicans. Today, I came across further evidence pointing even more emphatically at the same conclusion.
For ten years now, Rasmussen has been studying partisan trends. Its latest survey indicates that, for the first time in that period, more Americans self-identify as Republicans than as Democrats. To be precise, 37.6% now think of themselves as Republicans -- more than in September, 2004 -- and only 33.3% self-identify as Democrats. What makes this especially interesting is that two years ago -- on the eve of the Republican blowout in the 2010 midterm elections -- 35% self-identified as Democrats and only 33.8% self-identified as Republicans.
It is a grave error to suppose that everyone in this country has made up his mind. Things are in motion. The Republicans have an argument and a plan, and the Democrats -- thanks to the wisdom of Barack Obama -- have nothing to offer. Do not be mislead by the polls. The only ones that are at all trustworthy are those based on a sample that reflects the shift of the public at large towards the Republican Party. Any poll based on the presumption that there will be more Democrats voting in November than Republicans is badly skewed. Gallup, which has been polling on this question as long as I have been alive, some weeks ago had self-identified Republicans equal in number to self-identified Democrats. The latest Rasmussen poll suggests that Republicans now outnumber Democrats. It is not hard to see why.
A landslide is what you are going to see in November. And if Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan emphasize political principles (as well as managerial competence), they will have coattails, and the Senate will be ours.
CORRECTION: As the first commenter points out, in Rasmussen's poll, the Republicans slipped ahead by an eyelash in November, 2010 and have remained ahead much of the time since -- but never as much as now.