Another Straw in the Wind
A few days ago, I drew attention to a Gallup poll indicating that, for the first time in the last twenty years, Americans thought better of the Republican Party than of the Democrats. Later that same day, I pointed to a Pew Foundation poll reaffirming the drift towards the Republicans. Today, I came across further evidence pointing even more emphatically at the same conclusion.
For ten years now, Rasmussen has been studying partisan trends. Its latest survey indicates that, for the first time in that period, more Americans self-identify as Republicans than as Democrats. To be precise, 37.6% now think of themselves as Republicans -- more than in September, 2004 -- and only 33.3% self-identify as Democrats. What makes this especially interesting is that two years ago -- on the eve of the Republican blowout in the 2010 midterm elections -- 35% self-identified as Democrats and only 33.8% self-identified as Republicans.
It is a grave error to suppose that everyone in this country has made up his mind. Things are in motion. The Republicans have an argument and a plan, and the Democrats -- thanks to the wisdom of Barack Obama -- have nothing to offer. Do not be mislead by the polls. The only ones that are at all trustworthy are those based on a sample that reflects the shift of the public at large towards the Republican Party. Any poll based on the presumption that there will be more Democrats voting in November than Republicans is badly skewed. Gallup, which has been polling on this question as long as I have been alive, some weeks ago had self-identified Republicans equal in number to self-identified Democrats. The latest Rasmussen poll suggests that Republicans now outnumber Democrats. It is not hard to see why.
A landslide is what you are going to see in November. And if Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan emphasize political principles (as well as managerial competence), they will have coattails, and the Senate will be ours.
CORRECTION: As the first commenter points out, in Rasmussen's poll, the Republicans slipped ahead by an eyelash in November, 2010 and have remained ahead much of the time since -- but never as much as now.
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Comments:
Nov '11
Re: Another Straw in the Wind
Dr. Rahe - this statement is not correct:
It is correct that more Americans than ever before self-identify as Republicans, but more have identified as Republicans than Democrats since November 2011, according to this.
I hope and pray you are right about the election results. This seems intuitively correct to me based on the hysteria being promulgated by committed Leftists on Facebook and elsewhere, but I am far too conservative to get excited over polling data.
Edited on September 2, 2012 at 9:17pmSep '10
Re: Another Straw in the Wind
I suspect that the Obama campaign is seeing trouble in their internal polling data. Like Mothership_Greg, I think this may explain why Axelrod and Co. seem sleep-deprived and grumpy these days.
Re: Another Straw in the Wind
Mothership_Greg: Dr. Rahe - this statement is not correct:
It is correct that more Americans than ever before self-identify as Republicans, but more have identified as Republicans than Democrats since November 2011, according to this.
I hope and pray you are right about the election results. This seems intuitively correct to me based on the hysteria being promulgated by committed Leftists on Facebook and elsewhere, but I am far too conservative to get excited over polling data. · 7 minutes ago
Edited 5 minutes ago
You are right. Very interesting.
May '11
Re: Another Straw in the Wind
Interesting. This year I moved to another state. When I registered to vote, I deliberately indicated "Independent" rather than my former "Republican". I feel that the Republican party takes us peons for granted. It is my impression that if you register with an "R", they stop listening.
I would be happier if more people registered as "R" changed to "I". Maybe the party bosses would work harder to earn our votes. Too bad there isn't a "C" (Conservative) or "T" (Tea Party) option.
Oct '10
Re: Another Straw in the Wind
I hope we win. Obama certainly doesn't deserve to get re-elected; every other post-war president with his record got the boot, after all. But you never know, the political elite is quite desperate, including--unfortunately--not just the left, but also a big chunk of the centrist elite (probably out of a fear of being labeled racists by their friends).
Edited on September 2, 2012 at 10:00pmRe: Another Straw in the Wind
Pilli: Interesting. This year I moved to another state. When I registered to vote, I deliberately indicated "Independent" rather than my former "Republican". I feel that the Republican party takes us peons for granted. It is my impression that if you register with an "R", they stop listening.
I would be happier if more people registered as "R" changed to "I". Maybe the party bosses would work harder to earn our votes. Too bad there isn't a "C" (Conservative) or "T" (Tea Party) option. · 33 minutes ago
The only downside is that this bars you from voting in the primaries? Or does it where you live?
Jun '10
Re: Another Straw in the Wind
Social Issue Democrats + Fiscal Issue Democrats =
Dec '10
Re: Another Straw in the Wind
Are we witnessing the demise of a terrible meme? Is the "democrats=good, republicans=evil" narrative finally suffering a death worthy of so great a lie? I think spokesmen like Ryan and Rubio (and Walker, Martinez, Christie, etc.) are finally making this happen.
Oct '10
Re: Another Straw in the Wind
Dr. Rahe, in a comment on a post by Brian Ward, http://ricochet.com/member-feed/At-The-Pharmacy-Counter-Yesterday I noted that there seemed to be a mode shift in the general public. This is not a scientific observation but anecdotal.
I'm sure there are others. My question on that thread was: Does this indicate a rightward realignment or just disappointment with bad governance.
For the record, I agree that we are likely to see a landslide in November. I recall before the mid terms how House democrats dismissed the possibility of losing control of the House.
Edited on September 2, 2012 at 10:55pmApr '11
Re: Another Straw in the Wind
So does Romney's entire bump since the convention simply come from Rasmussen re-weighting their polls to R+4?
Apr '11
Re: Another Straw in the Wind
At what point will the polls start showing a more accurate picture? Polling companies take pride on their ability to pick the outcome correctly and I suspect most of them don't want to be embarrassed that badly on the day after Election Day, even for ideological reasons.
Re: Another Straw in the Wind
Quite possibly -- but that would not undermine the result.
Re: Another Straw in the Wind
Sometime, shortly before the election, the pollsters (Gallup, anyway) shift from polling the general public or registered voters to polling likely voters. Then, they get closer to reality.
Nov '10
Re: Another Straw in the Wind
Pilli: Interesting. This year I moved to another state. When I registered to vote, I deliberately indicated "Independent" rather than my former "Republican". I feel that the Republican party takes us peons for granted. It is my impression that if you register with an "R", they stop listening.
I would be happier if more people registered as "R" changed to "I". Maybe the party bosses would work harder to earn our votes. Too bad there isn't a "C" (Conservative) or "T" (Tea Party) option. · 2 hours ago
Unfortunately, because you have registered Independent, the Republican party bosses will now group you with the moderates. I think this protest registration actually works against your purpose.
Jun '10
Re: Another Straw in the Wind
Reports of this meme's demise are greatly exaggerated
See: Debbie Wasserman Schultz - Charlotte, NC - Sept 4-6, 2012
Nov '10
Re: Another Straw in the Wind
Oh, beautiful. Where did you get this?
Jun '10
Re: Another Straw in the Wind
Lucy Pevensie
Oh, beautiful. Where did you get this? · 27 minutes ago
I built it, which is not to say that somebody else didn't think of it first, and did something very similar that I don't know about. That happens too. Use it if you want.
Jun '12
Re: Another Straw in the Wind
Professor, when you wake up from your nap, a question.
Do you think the drop off in Democrat self-identification is caused by:
some other factor I didn't name, or a combination? If a combination, which ones do you think are the major factors and which are the minor ones?
If you ever travel to the northwestern USA, let me know... I'll introduce ya to the best hole-in-the-wall restaurants in my humble little town.
Re: Another Straw in the Wind
ConservativeWanderer: Professor, when you wake up from your nap, a question.
Do you think the drop off in Democrat self-identification is caused by:
some other factor I didn't name, or a combination? If a combination, which ones do you think are the major factors and which are the minor ones?
If you ever travel to the northwestern USA, let me know... I'll introduce ya to the best hole-in-the-wall restaurants in my humble little town. · 55 minutes ago
No. 2 -- there are a lot of people out of work, a lot of people with fewer hours than they would like, and a lot of people doing things that they never thought that they would have to do, and most of them voted for Obama in 2008.
I will keep those restaurants in mind. I plan to spend 2013/14 in the Stoner Republic out on the West coast.
Jun '12
Re: Another Straw in the Wind
Paul A. Rahe
No. 2 -- there are a lot of people out of work, a lot of people with fewer hours than they would like, and a lot of people doing things that they never thought that they would have to do, and most of them voted for Obama in 2008.
I will keep those restaurants in mind. I plan to spend 2013/14 in the Stoner Republic out on the West coast. · 15 minutes ago
I may be moving from the northwest to the southwest if I can't convince my girlfriend of the beauty of the northwest, but wherever I am, you're always welcome to stop in for a burger and a chat, assuming your doctor approves.