Another Iranian Nuclear Scientist Assassinated
Yesterday, a young Iranian nuclear scientist, Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, was killed while on his way to work in north Teheran. The car in which he was driving exploded; a bomb had apparently been attached to the car with a magnet by a passing motorcyclist. Roshan was identified by the Mehr News Agency as the deputy director of commercial affairs at the Natanz uraniam enrichment plant, where he was in charge of buying equipment and materials.
The Americans were quick to disavow any connection to the hit, with Hillary Clinton "categorically" denying not only this killing but “any United States involvement in any kind of act of violence inside Iran.”
The prevailing assumption is that this and the other assassinations of nuclear scientists that preceded it (as well as the explosions and cyber sabotage that have targeted the Iranian nuclear program over the past two years) are the work of Mossad, either with the tacit support or in direct defiance of the United States. It could be the work of Greens inside the country, formerly non-violent but pushed too far (a theory held by Michael Ledeen at Pajamas Media). Some of the scientists could even have been targeted by the Iranian government itself, since they were known to have sympathized to some extent with the opposition. “I think there is reason to doubt the idea that all the hits have been carried out by Israel,” Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told The New York Times. “It’s very puzzling that Iranian nuclear scientists, whose movements are likely carefully monitored by the state, can be executed in broad daylight, sometimes in rush-hour traffic, and their culprits never found.”
Iranian score-settling might explain a few of the killings, but it doesn't explain the broader campaign -- not that it matters. Either the Americans are already waging a war of a new, more surgical kind with the intention of disrupting Iran's nuclear program, or someone else -- someone with chops -- is operating with the same strategic interests in mind. All the will-they-or-won't-they armchair pontificating about American and Israeli military intentions vis-a-vis Iran might already be beside the point.
Haaretz published a list today of mysterious deaths and explosions linked to Iran's nuclear program. Here they are, in reverse chronological order:
- Yesterday (January 11, 2012): Nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan is killed by a bomb.
- December 11, 2011: An explosion at a steel mill linked with Iran's nuclear program kills at least seven in Yazd.
- November 28, 2011: An explosion rattles Isfahan in western Iran, where a critical nuclear facility is located.
- November 12, 2011: A huge explosion at a military arms depot near Teheran kills 17 Revolutionary Guards as well as a senior military figure considered to be a central actor in Iran's missile program.
- July 23, 2011: Dariush Rezaeinejad, a young member of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, is gunned down by two men firing from motorcycles. Rezaeinejad was a PhD student involved in developing high-voltage switches, which are used to set off the explosions needed to trigger nuclear warheads.
- May 24, 2011: An explosion causes a fire at an oil refinery during a visit by Ahmadinejad. He is not injured, but one person is killed and six others wounded.
- November 29, 2010: Majid Shahriyari, a nuclear engineer, is killed when his car explodes. On the same day, Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani, a nuclear scientist sanctioned by the UN, is wounded by a car bomb.
- January 12, 2010: Massoud Ali Mohammadi, a professor and nuclear scientist, is killed in a bombing outside his home in Teheran. Haaretz notes that Mohammadi had publicly backed opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi in the presidential election, and his name was on a list -- published on pro-reform websites before the election -- of university teachers who supported the opposition.
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Comments:
May '10
Re: Another Iranian Nuclear Scientist Assassinated
Killing a person isn't that difficult, but getting away afterwards requires some skill and planning. Also, the small size of the bomb suggests that the killers were concerned with limiting collateral damage. What kind of people would worry about that? Answer: smart people.
Feb '11
Re: Another Iranian Nuclear Scientist Assassinated
They seem to be getting more frequent. Good.
Aug '11
Re: Another Iranian Nuclear Scientist Assassinated
From the 1975 Church committee to Eric Holder breathing threats at the Guantanamo interrogators, CIA operations no longer has the chops for foreign assassinations. Mossad has the chops but this many assassinations in a police state entirely hostile to Israel? I hesitate to believe it possible.
Is there an internecine conflict within Iran? Is there a significant and competent Iranian faction that foresees a similar catastrophe to Iraq and Saddam Hussein if Iran continues with its nuclear program? The faction is attempting to halt the nuclear program by murdering the most important personnel.
Can, "walk softly and carry a big stick" have such serious consequences? I certainly hope so.
Edited on January 12, 2012 at 1:12pmAug '10
Re: Another Iranian Nuclear Scientist Assassinated
To run any program, be it the Iranian Nuclear program or your local chapter of the YMCA you have to have three things: people, money and stuff.
For the Iranian nuclear program, the stuff is contained in what is called a "Hardened, Deeply Buried" facility, so attacking the stuff directly (conventionally) and from without is extremely difficult. So Stuxnet attacked the stuff unconventionally. The interesting thing for me is the presence of above-ground explosions at critical facilities - if they are related.
Attacking the people is easier (especially if they aren't on lockdown) it just requires some grunt work to identify them ahead of time.
Money is the most difficult to attack in this case - the Revolutionary Guard has a long history of sponsoring terrorism and smuggling - both of which lend to the ability to launder money.
Two years ago, during a lunch meeting with friends, I pointed out that we would know that sanctions and other diplomatic maneuvering had failed when we saw someone start bumping off Iranian nuclear scientists.
Edited on January 12, 2012 at 1:21pmMar '11
Re: Another Iranian Nuclear Scientist Assassinated
All's fair in love and war.
Apr '11
Re: Another Iranian Nuclear Scientist Assassinated
The Constitution grants the authority for Letters of Marque and Reprisal to the Congress. Unless we are at war with Iran, we can't legally kill Iranian civilians. So, I doubt we are directly involved with these assassinations.
Edited on January 12, 2012 at 2:17pmApr '11
Re: Another Iranian Nuclear Scientist Assassinated
Well sanctions always fail. They impoverish people not governments. Why does this indicate diplomacy has failed? Diplomacy typically continues under even wartime conditions. Do you mean it's failed to halt Iran's nuclear ambitions?
Jun '10
Re: Another Iranian Nuclear Scientist Assassinated
When you start making military weapons for a specific purpose, you'll become another military target. Plan accordingly.
Sep '10
Re: Another Iranian Nuclear Scientist Assassinated
Whoever is responsible should eventually, in a sane world, be given the Nobel Peace Prize. They've done more for the cause of peace than all the protesters who ever marched.
Aug '10
Re: Another Iranian Nuclear Scientist Assassinated
Jeff Younger
Well sanctions always fail. They impoverish people not governments. Why does this indicate diplomacy has failed? Diplomacy typically continues under even wartime conditions. Do you mean it's failed to halt Iran's nuclear ambitions? · Jan 12 at 5:30am
Wow, so those sanctions and other diplomatic maneuverings didn't compel South Africa to abandon Aparthied?
Sanctions don't 'always' fail. They mostly fail. Sometimes they work.
However, yes, as Iran appears closer to achieving the bomb the more overt action we will see trying to derail the program.
Mar '11
Re: Another Iranian Nuclear Scientist Assassinated
This is exactly right. Being evil should have negative consequences.
May '10
Re: Another Iranian Nuclear Scientist Assassinated
If the United States is involved, then shame on us. If Israel is involved, then shame on them. This is nothing but an act of terror, and if Iran was the perpetrator on our soil, it would be loudly denounced as such. So shame on those who are happy for the frequency of these terror attacks, or who write inane comments like "all is fair in love and war." War has not been declared yet, and this is an action that falls well outside the laws of war.
I agree with Jeff Younger that these actions are so egregious that the U.S. is probably not involved (hopefully). I think the best guess is Israel. And the real question is "why?".
Israel has to know that killing isolated scientists is no serious, long-term deterrent to Iran's nuclear program. My best guess is that she is trying to push Iran into a war. Acts of terror, perpetrated with skill in a deniable fashion, will be ignored by the western media. And with Iran seen as the aggressor, the United States will quickly back Israel and take the brunt of the action, which is what Israel wants.
Nov '10
Re: Another Iranian Nuclear Scientist Assassinated
I can think of about a dozen reasons why the Iranian regime itself might be carrying these out. Yes, I know, it sounds like 9/11 truther stuff, but it seems serious commentators are going there, why not take it seriously? Note how few of these actually strike home very effectively or hit high-value targets -- not what I'd expect from Mossad. And they could well be a combination of such factors, and may be mixed with a few attacks by dissidents (probably not the Greens themselves) within the country. A few possibilities:
- Propaganda within the state to justify military crack-down
- Demonization of dissident groups
- Justifying more concealment and bunkering to the international watchmen organizations
- The elimination of perceived enemies or potential traitors within the system
- Distraction of attention from sites/individuals of real value by bringing the focus on known sites/individuals that are expendable
Etc.
May '10
Re: Another Iranian Nuclear Scientist Assassinated
The gleeful enthusiasm in this thread for terrorist attacks makes me feel sick.
May '10
Re: Another Iranian Nuclear Scientist Assassinated
I just found a short piece saying much the same thing I said.
Nov '10
Re: Another Iranian Nuclear Scientist Assassinated
I'll leave the moral argument aside -- these are not simple acts of terrorism as they all involve targets directly associated with the nuclear program. Terrorism targets a civilian population or is nonspecific in general. But would they be shameful for Israel or the U.S. to be involved in? There is a moral equivalence argument in your comment, Brandon, that does not ring true. Yes, there would be a hue and cry about such an attack on American soil, and it would be an undeclared act of war either way. I'm not disputing that. But it is a response to a specific buildup with clear aggressive intent.
May '10
Re: Another Iranian Nuclear Scientist Assassinated
R. Craigen
ITerrorism targets a civilian population or is nonspecific in general. But would they be shameful for Israel or the U.S. to be involved in? There is a moral equivalence argument in your comment, Brandon, that does not ring true. Yes, there would be a hue and cry about such an attack on American soil, and it would be an undeclared act of war either way. I'm not disputing that. But it is a response to a specific buildup with clear aggressive intent. · Jan 12 at 7:10am
I see. So blowing up the cars of American politicians, those who want to bomb Iran, would not be an act of terror because it would be specific and it would be a response to a planned buildup for the purpose of clear, aggressive intent.
Try again.
Perhaps what you mean is, "We're good. They're bad. So we can kill their scientists because they're too evil to have big guns."
Who is demonstrating moral equivalence? It's an act of terrorism. Period.
Edited on January 12, 2012 at 4:16pmJul '11
Re: Another Iranian Nuclear Scientist Assassinated
The CIA is not responsible for this. The number of forms and clearances is beyond belief just to order a pencil. I'd like to take this time to criticize the Jews who clearly have no reason to fear Iran or their nuclear program or holocaust in general. Oh wait, I just removed my brain tumor. Sorry for being incredibly naive. Go Mossad, get at few more. Drop the ace of spades on their corpse if you want to. When your lives are threatened by a madman with a purpose, he forfeits his life and the lives of anyone working with him.
Jul '11
Re: Another Iranian Nuclear Scientist Assassinated
American politicians that say, "Bomb bomb bomb , bomb bomb Iran"( sing it like the Beach Boys) would normally have to get clearance from congress until recently.
May '10
Re: Another Iranian Nuclear Scientist Assassinated
I support Israel's right to declare war on Iran. Acts of terror, though, are abhorrent, whether perpetrated by Israel, the United States, or Santa Clause and his elves.
Please don't insinuate antisemitism. It's a slur, not an argument.
Edited on January 12, 2012 at 5:05pm