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Mickey Kaus is predicting a Romney flip flop on immigration, and over at Commentary Seth Mandel has just posted "Will Romney Regret Immigration Stance?"  

From Seth's piece, an excerpt:

But as a general-election issue, Romney may have put himself in a box. Romney is not just to the right of Gingrich and Perry on the issue; he’s to the right of every Republican presidential nominee in recent history. After Ann Coulter and Peter Robinson discussed the topic on a Ricochet podcast last week, Ben Domenech jumped into the fray with some statistics that reveal why the GOP’s border state politicians are telling Romney to cool it:

mitt

"Now, I’m skeptical of a lot of data about illegal immigrants because, well, it’s a bit difficult to assess. But as far as such data goes, the folks at Pew do a pretty thorough job. They estimated recently that two-thirds of illegal immigrants have been here for more than a decade...."

If you support hard-line policies to curb illegal immigration, at some point you have to ask yourself whether your plan really calls for the deportation of 6.4 million adults (out of the 10.2 estimated total) who have been in this country for at least a decade, almost half of whom have children under the age of 18. If the answer is yes, you are left with two follow-up questions: Can this in any way be considered realistic? And presuming you do not accomplish this (for a host of reasons), have you just told 3 million parents in the demographic that accounted for 56 percent of the nation’s population growth in the last decade that your party wants them and their children out?

In other words, is it possible your plan is both bad politics and bad policy?

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Joined
Apr '11
wmartin

The good news is that hispanics (more accurately, Mexicans ; "hispanic" is not an actual racial group) don't vote at a high rate, so it doesn't really matter much how offended they get. I even doubt that they will know enough about national issues to care, since they are among the least engaged of all residents.

That 56 % stat just fills me with dread, I have to say. The best way to ensure that you become a third world country is to import a lot of third world people.

ParisParamus
Joined
May '10
ParisParamus

Vice President Marco Rubio.

Nathaniel Wright
Joined
Aug '10
Nathaniel Wright

Vice President Brian Sandoval.


Joined
Apr '11
wmartin
ParisParamus: Vice President Marco Rubio. · Jan 17 at 1:49pm

Why would Mexicans care about Cubans?


Joined
Dec '11
Nobody's Perfect

Forget the politics for a moment.  

The issue is very simple: the American people have a fundamental right to hold government responsible for enforcement of our laws, no matter how difficult or politically inconvenient that may be.  For government to turn a blind eye in the instance of one particular law undermines the entire concept of justice.

David Williamson
Joined
Mar '11
David Williamson
Nobody's Perfect:   For government to turn a blind eye in the instance of one particular law undermines the entire concept of justice.

I am sure Mr Holder will sort this out, post haste!

Oh, wait, what about the Black Panthers, Fast and Furious, and the Immigration law suit against AZ?

Um, we need a change of Government.

ParisParamus
Joined
May '10
ParisParamus

Why would Mexicans care about Cubans?

Why would legal immigrants care about keeping out illegal ones?


Joined
Apr '11
wmartin

ParisParamus: Why would Mexicans care about Cubans?

Why would legal immigrants care about keeping out illegal ones? · Jan 17 at 2:17pm

I don't think they do care that much. Mexicans don't vote much, and are very unengaged in national politics. They rank immigration as a very low concern when asked.

Kofola
Joined
May '10
Kofola

Do Romney supporters really believe that he's not going to truck immediately to the traditional GOP position on immigration the minute it becomes convenient? I found it particularly funny how Coulter continually attacked the GOP's stance on immigration as being in the interests of big business, while continually trying to claim that the candidate most representative of the interests of big business is going to somehow more likely that the others to change this.

Let's be real here. It doesn't really matter who wins. No one should expect the issue to be appropriately addressed anytime soon.

Edited on Jan 17 at 3:00pm
Nathaniel Wright
Joined
Aug '10
Nathaniel Wright

Some Romney supporters want him to "truck immediately free market" (which is very different than "Left") on immigration the minute it becomes convenient.

There is nothing that requires supporting a more open border to be a "Left Wing" position.  There are many free market and conservative reasons for it.  Just as there are many reasons to enforce against illegal immigrants that have nothing to do with race.

The more people argue that this is a Left/Right issue, the more the dialogue feeds into the Left's "victocrat" mentality.

Brian Sandoval would be a great pick for Vice President.  Governor of a Western swing state, former judge, former State Attorney, and intelligent.

Duane Oyen
Joined
May '10
Duane Oyen

You can enforce border laws just fine without ethnic rancor as long as you apply both the carrot and the stick.  Bush and Chertoff pushed ahead with the fence construction, waiving environmental legal barriers, at the same time, they were clearly not anti-Mexican immigrant.  If you are being overrun by illegal workers, replace them with legal guest workers whose whereabouts you can track and regulate.

Iron hand, velvet glove, soft-spoken, promote assimilation, accept immigration.  Instead, 90% of the rhetoric on the Right comes off as anti-Latino first and foremost.

Brian Clendinen
Joined
Mar '11
Brian Clendinen
Nobody's Perfect: For government to turn a blind eye in the instance of one particular law undermines the entire concept of justice. · Jan 17 at 2:00pm

Nobody’s, you might be an exception but my experience is people with that viewpoint on immigration are really saying “don’t turn a blind eye to the laws I agree with. Other laws, many maybe I have broken or I think are bad laws, I don't have an issue with the government turning a blind eye to. Copyright violations, a lot of reporting reqs, licensing: turn a blind eye.”

I have issues with amnesty due to its perversion of rule of law. People who try to come here legally and are denied don’t get citizenship but illegal’s get amnesty, that is perverted? However, letting illegal’s get in line with no preferential treatment (including families) with everyone else in the world for green card and citizenship.

I am of the opinion we really don’t have an illegal immigration issue we have a legal immigration issue. So I am a pretty much on the open (but secure) border camp which is historically a consertive position.

Edited on Jan 17 at 2:57pm
Brian Clendinen
Joined
Mar '11
Brian Clendinen

 I am glad you wrote this Peter I was thinking along similar lines after reading Ben.

A lot of people don’t realize that you can buy a green card. I just heard on NPR today the U.S. has a program if you invest a half a million in a project in America you get a green card with-in three years. Also if you get a college teaching job in the U.S. you are always granted a green card. I am sure there are other loop holes were specific groups get preferential treatment for immigration.  

I personally hate the quota system we have, plus all the different visas types(70+ and counting). Does anyone else think it is insanely low number that the green card quota is 140k for employemnet Green Cards, 226k for Family Green Cards plus 55k for the lottery, and 10k for special categories. Also no county is allowed more than 7% of the quota (or 4% for dependants).

So I guess the real question is why do so many people come here illegally if they can find jobs so easily once here? Because it is to difficult to come legally.  

Kofola
Joined
May '10
Kofola

Nathaniel Wright: Some Romney supporters want him to "truck immediately free market" (which is very different than "Left") on immigration the minute it becomes convenient.

There is nothing that requires supporting a more open border to be a "Left Wing" position.  There are many free market and conservative reasons for it.  Just as there are many reasons to enforce against illegal immigrants that have nothing to do with race.

The more people argue that this is a Left/Right issue, the more the dialogue feeds into the Left's "victocrat" mentality.

Brian Sandoval would be a great pick for Vice President.  Governor of a Western swing state, former judge, former State Attorney, and intelligent. · Jan 17 at 2:33pm

I agree fully. Our issues with illegal immigration are largely more about us than they are about them. We can take a hardline protectionist stance on immigration but that will only hit at the symptoms, not the causes of the problems that are exposed by illegal immigration. We can handle mass immigration. It's the welfare state and cultural relativism that makes such immigration problematic.


Joined
Apr '11
James Of England

While I greatly respect Kaus, he's not thinking "Romney" here, he's thinking "moderate flip flopper". Romney has been an immigration hawk since his 1994 run, and it has always been an unpopular view in Massachusetts. It was the worst part of supporting him in 2008, particularly in California, where the "your approval fills me with shame" phenomenon of campaigning on issues you disagree with was particularly intense.

Even if it wasn't something that he had strong feelings on, while Romney might gain or lose some votes for the position, he'd lose a lot more for anything approaching a flip flop. Won't do it on Obamacare, or Romneycare, or SSM, not regarding his faith, nor Bain, and not on immigration.

Plus, it's not clear which states would be swung by it. In terms of SW swing states, Nevada and Arizona are likely his, New Mexico and Colorado are more difficult. New Mexico's governor is a Latina immigration hawk; how bad would it be for him to agree with her? The key swing states are in the Mid-West, where immigration restriction is more helpful.


Joined
Dec '11
Nobody's Perfect

Instead, 90% of the rhetoric on the Right comes off as anti-Latino first and foremost.

What a coincidence, given that 90% of illegal immigrants currently in this country are from Mexico, Central America and South America.


Joined
Dec '11
Nobody's Perfect

Nobody’s, you might be an exception but my experience is people with that viewpoint on immigration are really saying “don’t turn a blind eye to the laws I agree with. Other laws, many maybe I have broken or I think are bad laws, I don't have an issue with the government turning a blind eye to. Copyright violations, a lot of reporting reqs, licensing: turn a blind eye.”

I don't want the government to turn a blind eye to any law, even those with which I disagree.  If I disagree, I have a voice and vote to change the law.  What I don't have is the right to ignore it and expect not to suffer the consequences.  That way lies anarchy.


Joined
May '11
Larry3435

There is no group that suffers as much from the effects of illegal immigration (and I use that word loosely in this context) as legal immigrants.  Explain that correctly, and Romney should get a majority of the legal immigrant vote.  Stop the illegal immigrants from voting (aka, show ID's) and our side can flip the whole demographic.  We MUST stop being so afraid of telling the truth.

Douglas
Joined
Mar '11
Douglas

wmartin

ParisParamus: Vice President Marco Rubio. · Jan 17 at 1:49pm

Why would Mexicans care about Cubans? · Jan 17 at 1:54pm

One thing I learned in the Navy many moons ago is that different Hispanic groups often have as many beefs with each other as they do other with ethnic groups. Mexicans badmouthed Puerto Ricans, Puerto Ricans badmouthed Cubans, and Cubans badmouthed Columbians. That was something of a surprise to me. I heard stuff all the time like "I can't stand those *&^%$# Cubans, but man, they can cook". 

Hispanics, as a whole, are not a monolithic entity. The voting patterns of Mexicans and Cubans should be a clear example of that.

Brian Clendinen
Joined
Mar '11
Brian Clendinen

I have always found it fascinating that everyone think increases in illegals is mostly a border issue. Per Pew up to 50% of illegals come form overstaying visas. On estimate had 91% of non central American illegals form overstay of visas.

So a secure border best case might take care of half the issue.


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