Anecdotal But Puzzling Observations From France
Mischa, Leo and I went out for a walk last night and noticed two things that don't quite fit with the picture you'd get from reading the news.
1) Recession? We sure didn't see it. The French are shopping their brains out. The stores were packed. Huge lines at the toy stores, the clothing stores, the luxury-goods stores--you could barely get the stroller down the escalator. This was a pre-Christmas rush the likes of which I've never seen in Paris. What's up with that?
2) Low birth rates in Europe? Maybe I'm more primed to notice babies and baby paraphernalia because I've got one with me, but I can't ever remember seeing so many babies and kids in Paris, or so many stores selling baby clothes, amusements for kids, merry-go-rounds, puericulture, or pregnant women. And no, these kids definitely aren't all named "Mohammed," so put that idea out of your head; these were little Jean-Claudes and Marie-Frances. If this (fairly ordinary) Parisian neighborhood is anything to go by, the French fertility rate has soared.
I just checked: It's not just anecdotal evidence. The French fertility rate has indeed soared.
| Year | Births | TFR |
|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 734,338 | 1.73 |
| 1997 | 726,768 | 1.73 |
| 1998 | 738,080 | 1.76 |
| 1999 | 744,791 | 1.79 |
| 2000 | 774,782 | 1.87 |
| 2001 | 770,945 | 1.88 |
| 2002 | 761,630 | 1.86 |
| 2003 | 761,464 | 1.87 |
| Year | Births | TFR |
|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 767,816 | 1.90 |
| 2005 | 774,355 | 1.92 |
| 2006 | 796,896 | 1.98 |
| 2007 | 785,985 | 1.96 |
| 2008 | 796,000 | 1.99 |
| 2009 | 793,400 | 1.99 |
| 2010 | 797,000 | 2.00 |
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Comments:
Nov '10
Re: Anecdotal But Puzzling Observations From France
If the French can be counted on for anything, it is to fornicate their way out of a demographic crisis.
May '10
Re: Anecdotal But Puzzling Observations From France
As I tell my socialist friends, "If you want your dream to continue, you'd better start having grandchildren immediately."
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You can get some interesting data here.
Edited on December 18, 2011 at 12:17pmOct '10
Re: Anecdotal But Puzzling Observations From France
Hypothesis A: The recession has driven retailers to hold their winter sales before Christmas, instead of afterwards as traditional, so as to give rise to exactly this result.
Hypothesis B: Paris is France's Washington DC, as well as its NY (and Boston), so it is insulated from the real world somewhat with all its bureaucrats.
Hypothesis C: Macroeconomics is bunk, and measurements of aggregates have increasingly little to say about life as it is experienced by individuals.
Mar '11
Re: Anecdotal But Puzzling Observations From France
Nobody is showing the numbers of French newborns broken down by religious/ethnic lines. I'd wager heavy money that the growth in the birth rate is Islamic in nature.
May '10
Re: Anecdotal But Puzzling Observations From France
I wonder if the shopping has something to do with the particular nature of this economic crisis. I mean, what people are experiencing is that money in the bank disappears. Might as well buy stuff with it before it goes.
Nov '10
Re: Anecdotal But Puzzling Observations From France
Isn't France rather well known for its historically erratic birthrate? It was a huge issue in the two decades or so prior to WWI, for example, especially with regard to its then primary competitors, Germany and Great Britain. Those two - despite much larger emigration - still grew significantly faster. I wonder if there is some underlying theme there....
Re: Anecdotal But Puzzling Observations From France
Not that I'm seeing. Definitely not.
Sep '11
Re: Anecdotal But Puzzling Observations From France
Claire, I was in France just last summer and I'm glad that you noticed the same thing. I'll vouch for it being a national trend, I spent most of my time in and around Marseille/Toulon. What also was surprising to me, and my surprise may be cultural, were the number of relatively young mothers, most probably about 23. They were also not Islamic, even in the south.
Isn't the recession only a prediction for 2012? Or am I misinformed?
Edited on December 18, 2011 at 4:03pmRe: Anecdotal But Puzzling Observations From France
Gabriel Sullice: Claire, I was in France just last summer and I'm glad that you noticed the same thing. I'll vouch for it being a national trend, I spent most of my time in and around Marseille/Toulon. What also was surprising to me, and my surprise may be cultural, were the number of relatively young mothers, most probably about 23. They were also not Islamic, even in the south.
Isn't the recession only a prediction for 2012? Or am I misinformed? · Dec 18 at 7:02am
Edited on Dec 18 at 07:03 am
The Washington Post seems to have noticed the same thing. They're talking about an atmosphere of "foreboding" in Paris--but if there is, it's imperceptible to me.
Nov '11
Re: Anecdotal But Puzzling Observations From France
FWIW
Claire Berlinski, Ed.
Not that I'm seeing. Definitely not. · Dec 18 at 6:05am
FWIW, a Pew Reseach Center study, with Muslim and non-Muslim population projections/comparisons: The Future of the Global Muslim Population. See, e.g., this chart comparing Muslim and non-Muslim fertility rates in individual European countries.
The usual caveat applies, "Lies, dern lies, Pew Center statistics."
May '10
Re: Anecdotal But Puzzling Observations From France
Paris, as has been noted many times in the flagship Ricochet Podcast, is not typical of France. As for the sales the last time I lived there, I do recall the laws pertaining to sales, and pertaining to store hours being relaxed just before Christmas.
Nov '10
Re: Anecdotal But Puzzling Observations From France
??? A birthrate of 2.0 means that the French --and with them French culture-- are dying off at a less rapid rate than was previously thought. Gee, where are they holding the celebration? If anecdotal evidence is what you go by, wandering some of the less congenial banlieues might might have left you less optimistic.
May '10
Re: Anecdotal But Puzzling Observations From France
Semi-tangent: you might find it surprising (or not) that, at least when I lived there, a store could not advertise "we will beat the competition's price" or "we will match the competition's price." Not sure if "buy one, get one free" was allowed. Twins are allowed.
Re: Anecdotal But Puzzling Observations From France
I took the RER through some of those banlieues, and they're horrible, but they've always been horrible. It didn't look worse, but that's a low standard.
Like I said, it's anecdotal evidence and no more--but this neighborhood looks like a baby-factory--and it sure didn't look this way to me five years ago.
Jan '11
Re: Anecdotal But Puzzling Observations From France
Anecdotal or otherwise, babies mean hope for the future. Including the ones named Muhammad.
May '10
Re: Anecdotal But Puzzling Observations From France
Like I said, it's anecdotal evidence and no more--but this neighborhood looks like a baby-factory--and it sure didn't look this way to me five years ago.
Well, maybe the vibrant, shrinking segment of French society is all huddled together in Paris? I actually haven't a clue.
Dec '10
Re: Anecdotal But Puzzling Observations From France
Wow Claire, Great News!
I've never heard a better leading indicator then this one. The heck with the GAO! Babies and buying just like love and marriage. Slammminnn All Right!!!!!! Pennies from Heaven. Pappa needs a new pair of shoes! Oh..ah..well..sorry Claire, I got carried away.
Sep '11
Re: Anecdotal But Puzzling Observations From France
Very likely. For some years now, shops (stores) in London have started sales before Xmas. (Even we don't have silly rules about that like the French). Last year the shops were heaving. This year I haven't been into town, because I've been ill, but locally, even in the middle-class bits, it seems to me to be very quiet. Inflation is now running at nearly 5%, unemployment is rising, and people are getting scared.
But round my way the middle classes are still breeding for England!