And it Starts ...
Out today:
PPP's first Wisconsin poll since Mitt Romney announced Paul Ryan as his running mate finds him taking a small lead over Barack Obama in the state, 48-47. That represents a 7 point shift from PPP's last look at the state in early July, which found Obama ahead 50-44.
Particularly interesting is how this breaks down:
The biggest change Ryan's selection seems to have brought about is the unification of the GOP. Romney's gone from a 78 point lead with Republicans on our last poll (87-9) to now an 88 point lead with them (93-5). There's also been a tightening with independents. Obama still has a 4 point lead with them at 47-43, but that's down from a 14 point advantage at 53-39 six weeks ago. Democrats are unchanged from the previous poll.
I've been skeptical from the get-go (though hoping to be proved wrong) that we'd be able to flip Wisconsin this time around, as I thought that the extrapolations from the Walker recall got excessively enthusiastic. And while this news is encouraging, being within the margin of error is still far from a slam dunk (and, as noted in the comments, PPP is far from the last word on such matters).
That being said, you have to be heartened by the direction the Badger State is moving in, particularly as revelations of the Obama campaign's financial difficulties come to the surface. If the Romney campaign can effectively expand the map of battleground states at the same time that Obama's fundraising efforts flag, the White House gets caught in a vicious cycle that it's difficult to claw out of. That could be a lot of fun to watch.
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Comments:
Jan '11
Re: And it Starts ...
From the article about Obama's fundraising difficulties:
And this guy thinks he can fix the deficit? He can't control his own campaign. In 2008, they argued that managing his campaign was a sign of his executive ability. Now what are they going to say?
May '12
Re: And it Starts ...
PPP is starting to skew their sample to be much more pro-Republican. Their poll yesterday in Missouri showing Akin still beating McCaskey is a GOP +9 sample, as opposed to a Dem +2 sample they used in May. This Wisconsin poll has a GOP +2 sample, which seems optimistic in a traditionally blue state. I don't trust PPP at all.
Edited on August 21, 2012 at 10:07pmAug '11
Re: And it Starts ...
Now, how many times do I have to tell you people that Obama will lose Wisconsin. Take it from a resident -- there is no enthusiasm for the President here.
I'm sure down there in Madison -- and in Gwen Moore's district -- there is probably some measurable anger and hatred for Republicans. That's a constant, and yes, Obama can bank on that. But winning this state? Nope. Not a chance.
Wisconsin became a toss-up with the mid-terms, and a solid Red State over the last year, after the anti-Walker demonstrations started in Madison. The more they demonstrated, the more they turned the rest of the state against the Democrats. And when Romney wins here in November he can, ironically, thank the Democrats for ensuring it.
Yeah, yeah, maybe I'm optoomuchstic, but I can count the number of Obama yard signs I've seen in this college town on one hand. And they all say "Defeat Obama."
Apr '11
Re: And it Starts ...
I said this in another thread, and just as important is that this 1 pt lead represents a 15 pt swing in WI from '08! Nobody can convince me that WI is the only state where this is occuring!
Edited on August 21, 2012 at 10:13pmJun '12
Re: And it Starts ...
DrewInWisconsin
Now, how many times do I have to tell you people that Obama will lose Wisconsin. Take it from a resident -- there is no enthusiasm for the President here.
I'm sure down there in Madison -- and in Gwen Moore's district -- there is probably some measurable anger and hatred for Republicans. That's a constant, and yes, Obama can bank on that. But winning this state? Nope. Not a chance.
Wisconsin became a toss-up with the mid-terms, and a solid Red State over the last year, after the anti-Walker demonstrations started in Madison. The more they demonstrated, the more they turned the rest of the state against the Democrats. And when Romney wins here in November he can, ironically, thank the Democrats for ensuring it.
Yeah, yeah, maybe I'm optoomuchstic, but I can count the number of Obama yard signs I've seen in this college town on one hand. And they all say "DefeatObama." · 0 minutes ago
If you're wrong, you'll never live it down.
Nov '11
Re: And it Starts ...
Cylon: PPP is starting to skew their sample to be much more pro-Republican. Their poll yesterday in Missouri showing Akin still beating McCaskey is a GOP +9 sample, as opposed to a Dem +2 sample they used in May. This Wisconsin poll has a GOP +2 sample, which seems optimistic in a traditionally blue state. I don't trust PPP at all. · 18 minutes ago
Edited 9 minutes ago
Don't either, but it matches what we've seen in one or two others in WI.
If Jim Geraghty's speculation is correct, the Missouri skew is unique to the circumstances: it's currently in their interest to show Akin still competitive, since that encourages him to stay in the race.
Isn't it rather unbelievable that we're even talking about that possibility? Obama running out of campaign cash?!
Mar '11
Re: And it Starts ...
Yes, it will be a fitting end to Mr Obama's Presidency when his campaign goes bankrupt and he has to retire to write a few more fictional autobiographies and give uplifting, vacuous, speeches in order to pay off the debt.
Re: And it Starts ...
Mark my words. There will be a landslide. If you go by Gallup, Romney is 11 points ahead of where Reagan was in 1980, and we have not yet begun to fight.
Aug '12
Re: And it Starts ...
While I a hope that those like Prof. Rahe are correct, I'd like to see a state-by-state analysis. The way I see it, Obama still has an easier route to 270 than Romney. Romney does not have to run the table of toss-ups, but it is close.
Apr '11
Re: And it Starts ...
Even in the recall, we only had an R+1 electorate. The PPP Wisconsin poll has a pretty bad sample, so I still can't really believe Romney will carry it.
Off topic, but Akin was just on Hannity's radio show. He claimed that his continued candidacy would "bring the country together."
Jun '12
Re: And it Starts ...
Leigh
Isn't it rather unbelievable that we're even talking about that possibility? Obamarunning out of campaign cash?! · 42 minutes ago
Actually, no, it's not that farfetched.
Nov '11
Re: And it Starts ...
ConservativeWanderer
Leigh
Isn't it rather unbelievable that we're even talking about that possibility? Obamarunning out of campaign cash?! · 42 minutes ago
Actually, no, it's not that farfetched. · 0 minutes ago
But would anyone have predicted four years ago?
I love the parallel. If I were the Romney people, I'd try and make an ad out of that.
Mar '11
Re: And it Starts ...
DrewInWisconsin
Now, how many times do I have to tell you people that Obama will lose Wisconsin. Take it from a resident -- there is no enthusiasm for the President here.
I'm sure down there in Madison -- and in Gwen Moore's district -- there is probably some measurable anger and hatred for Republicans. That's a constant, and yes, Obama can bank on that. But winning this state? Nope. Not a chance.
Wisconsin became a toss-up with the mid-terms, and a solid Red State over the last year, after the anti-Walker demonstrations started in Madison. The more they demonstrated, the more they turned the rest of the state against the Democrats.
The one thing I haven't been able to figure out how to account for when extrapolating from the Walker recall results is how many of those who voted for Walker were voting against the recall itself, considering it illegitimate, but will still vote Democrat in the future.
Edited on August 22, 2012 at 3:43amApr '11
Re: And it Starts ...
As a follow up to my 15 pt WI swing comment from above we have this news from CT: Rasmussen has Obama up 51-43. An 8 pt deficit is nothing to crow about, but keep in mind that Obama won CT by 22 pt in '08. So CT has a 14 pt swing away from Obama. Can someone please come on here and convince me that WI & CT are the only 2 states where this is happening!