And it Starts ...
Some very interesting observations in the DC Examiner today from FOR (that's Friend of Ricochet, for the uninitiated) Byron York:
For days, there's been talk of a Newt Gingrich boomlet in the Republican presidential race here in Iowa. After Friday night's Reagan Dinner at Hy-Vee Hall in downtown Des Moines, that Gingrich boomlet talk might turn into talk of a Gingrich boom.
Five candidates -- Gingrich, Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul -- addressed a crowd of about 1,000 GOP faithful at the state Republican party's biggest fundraiser of the year. In brief interviews after the dinner -- the only question was which speaker did the best job -- audience members were unanimous: Gingrich, Gingrich, Gingrich.
... In a dozen interviews, the score was Gingrich 12, the rest of the field 0.
... [Newt] appears to be on the move; in other Iowa surveys, Gingrich has broken into double digits after being in the low- to mid-single digits as late as August. And in conversations with a lot of Iowa voters in Des Moines and around the state in the last several days, it's remarkable how many voters named Gingrich as their first or second choice. If any frontrunners fade -- and given recent experience, that seems likely to happen -- Gingrich seems poised to make real progress toward a place in the top tier.
I suspect this is our trajectory for the remainder of the race. With Bachmann and Perry marginalized, and Herman Cain regularly demonstrating that he has a hard time bearing the scrutiny that accompanies being a front-runner, Newt slowly but steadily becomes the conservative alternative.
Don't get too comfortable if you're in the fervently anti-Romney camp, however. The reality is that Newt has never had to endure the spotlight that comes with being at the front of the pack either. And the second that he does, the allegations about his personal life --- ignored when he was seen as little more than an eccentricity on the trail -- will come back with a vengeance. This is still Mitt Romney's race to lose -- and given that caution seems to be the cardinal value of his campaign, knocking him off his pedestal is going to be a very difficult proposition.
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Aug '10
Re: And it Starts ...
Newt's a smart guy and a great speaker but totally undisciplined. This character flaw is why he couldn't stay faithful to his ex-wives and why he would make a bad chief executive.
Oftentimes smart guys tend to be undisciplined because they can skate through challenges while others have to work at them. Although he is on the other end of the spectrum ideologically, Newt shares this trait with Obama and Clinton - a couple of other smart but undisciplined types.
Newt belongs in the pundit class where we can all be dazzled by his brilliance without worrying about him making decisions that will actually impact our lives.
Edited on Nov 5, 2011 at 1:42pmDec '10
Re: And it Starts ...
I'm glad you put this up, Troy. I've had to admit to myself that I'm fickle. Gingrich is now my favorite of the Republicans who are running. Baggage and all. I still like Cain, but he's got to prove he can learn from his mistakes.
Gingrich's "follow Obama around" in the general is just audacious enough to work. And he's the only one brilliant enough and historically literate enough to pull it off.
The video of his Iowa speech is in this post at HotAir.
And as to Romney being hard to knock off, I still can't figure out why? Why? The man did the exceedingly un-conservative work of implementing ObamaCare before Obama did. And then had the audacity to put himself forward as a Republican candidate after the ascendance of the Tea Party. I don't understand how he gets even 25% of the GOP vote. The only thing I can come up with is undue reverence for administrative competence and timidity. Someone please explain.
Dec '10
Re: And it Starts ...
Can you (or anyone) give some examples of Gingrich's lack of discipline in policy matters? I'm aware of the global warming commercial with Pelosi. I'm not sure that's a discipline problem. I'm also aware of his criticism of the Ryan plan. I need to look into that more to try to determine what was behind it, but it's not obvious to me that it was a discipline problem either. Perhaps I'm not clear on what you mean by "undisciplined," but what other issues should I be looking at as examples of this? I don't mean this as a challenge. I'm sincere in wanting to understand and take a closer look at this charge.
Jun '11
Re: And it Starts ...
Ummm...allegations? You mean the facts about his personal life.
Troy Senik
allegations about his personal life...
Oct '10
Re: And it Starts ...
Newt strikes me as a classic revolutionary. He's great as figuring out how to get into power, but not very good with power once he has it. His term as Speaker was illustrative of that. Smart fellow, but not someone I would trust with a lot of power.
Nov '11
Re: And it Starts ...
Speaking as someone who would much prefer a "conservative alternative" to Romney, I want to know: Is there any substantial reason to believe Gingrich is more conservative, more trustworthy, or a better leader?
He is a livelier speaker than any of the rest and says intriguing things, of course. But Romney is also saying most of the right things these days, if a little more cautiously (as you would expect from someone with an eye on the general election).
Given a choice between two politicians, neither of whom we have any particular reason to trust, offering broadly similar policy proposals, it seems to me at this point wiser to go with the one who is apparently scandal-free and honorable in his personal life.
Edited on Nov 5, 2011 at 2:31pmAm I missing anything?
Apr '11
Re: And it Starts ...
If Mitt Romney is our John Kerry, then Newt Gingrich is our Bill Clinton.
And I could totally get on board with a Newt candidacy.
Good lord, what am I saying?!
Dec '10
Re: And it Starts ...
As to Newt's personal baggage, is there, or has there ever been, a man in the universe without baggage, apart from Jesus Christ? Marital infidelity during presidency seems to be the norm, with the possible exception of GWB, who had the baggage of alcoholism to carry around. It is one thing to scrutinize the private behavior of the man in office (which, as Rob so passionately articulated, doesn't even matter for Democrat presidents) and quite another to insist on sinless purity as a prerequisite for candidacy. I believe in the possibility of conversion of the heart and, until Newt has shown otherwise, I'll believe he's had one. Up until recently, this has been a typical American attitude. Do I need to catch up with the unforgiving times?
Oct '10
Re: And it Starts ...
No one is proposing sinless purity. However, if his wife can't trust him, why should we?
Dec '10
Re: And it Starts ...
Am I missing anything?
What has Gingrich done to cause you to doubt his policy proposals?
Feb '11
Re: And it Starts ...
Does this mean that Santorum will be the one, simply by being last in line?
Jun '10
Re: And it Starts ...
According to Newt Gingrich's daughter, her mother, Jackie, that Newt supposedly divorced "while on her death bed" is very much alive today and lives in Georgia. And before they got divorced, they were separated for several months. The divorce was well in motion before Jackie was hospitalized. And as you might imagine, Jackie was not begging her cheating husband to stay. Apparently, she was through with him.
Dec '10
Re: And it Starts ...
Publius
No one is proposing sinless purity. However, if his wife can't trust him, why should we?
It's fair to take Gingrich's infidelity in his marriages into account. Character does matter; it does to me, anyway. But I don't see how it follows that, because he cheated on his wife, we can't trust him to pursue the public policies he advocates. Apples and oranges, to my mind.
Sep '10
Re: And it Starts ...
If this is a pivotal election on which the future of the country rests, as some suggest, then it follows one should be looking for a person that could become a dynamic leader capable of inspiring significant change. Both Cain and Newt have considerable short comings but there is an outside chance they could become such a leader. I think there is little chance that Romney could rise to the occasion.
Oct '10
Re: And it Starts ...
Freeven
But I don't see how it follows that, because he cheated on his wife, we can't trust him to pursue the public policies he advocates. Apples and oranges, to my mind.
Not to mine. If he took an oath before God to be faithful to his wife and broke it, how can we trust him when he swears on a Bible to protect and defend the Constitution so help him God?
Jul '10
Re: And it Starts ...
It's been an hour or so, here's Newt on Medicare reform.
Short version: we'll fix it by removing waste and fraud. Yep. No pandering there.
Mar '11
Re: And it Starts ...
I've got nothing against Newt, but Mr Cain is climbing out from under the bus, and remains my preferred not-Romney.
May '10
Re: And it Starts ...
How does a President Gingrich escape the box he created for himself (and for us)with his description of the Ryan Plan as "right-wing social engineering"? Seems to me the Republican House would now have an easier time pushing its agenda with a President Romney -- who's essentially endorsed the Ryan reforms -- than with Newt.
And if this is so, the "conservative alternative" isn't really an accurate label for him.
Nov '11
Re: And it Starts ...
Freeven
Am I missing anything?
What has Gingrich done to cause you to doubt his policy proposals? · Nov 5 at 3:32pm
Well, there was the global warming ad, he's been at best iffy on the individual mandate in the past, and the way he dealt with the Ryan budget in May was... not reassuring. Frankly, my biggest problem is that his affair while publicly attacking Clinton over Lewinski, beyond the infidelity itself, seems so utterly irresponsible and shamelessly hypocritical as to make it difficult to consider him credible on anything. And it would weaken him in the general -- it wouldn't be the infidelity they would go after so much as the hypocrisy.
But I'm asking why he should be considered reliable more than arguing otherwise. I'm open to being convinced, I simply haven't found anything convincing so far.
Edited on Nov 5, 2011 at 4:35pmOct '10
Re: And it Starts ...
Leigh
Well, there was the global warming ad, he's been at best iffy on the individual mandate in the past, and the way he dealt with the Ryan budget in May was... not reassuring.
The Lean Six Sigma nonsense that he reverted to in one of the early debates was a good reminder of how he's prone to intellectual fads such as global warming. That doesn't disqualify him from office, but it does tend to remind me that he can be, as others have pointed out, a bit intellectually undisciplined at times.
Leigh
Frankly, my biggest problem is that his affair while publicly attacking Clinton over Lewinski, beyond the infidelity itself, seems so utterly irresponsible and shamelessly hypocritical as to make it difficult to consider him credible on anything. And it would weaken him in the general -- it wouldn't be the infidelity they would go after so much as the hypocrisy.
I'm not looking for perfection so the Lean Six Sigma stuff is easy enough to pass over. Everyone has their quirks, but I agree that this episode of his public life makes me very suspicious of his trustworthiness.