And We're Off ...
Troy Senik, Ed. ·
Jan 3 at 11:19am
2012 is going to be a big year at Ricochet. And we're starting it out in style tonight with the Iowa Caucuses (and, as you may note by my newly appended suffix above, I'm starting it out by joining Ricochet's editorial staff). As of this writing, we've still got about five and a half hours until caucus time.
Beware of pundits bearing authoritative predictions in the interim. The Iowa Caucuses are uniquely difficult to predict because of their amorphous structure. Early returns are also consistently misleading.
I won't hazard any predictions, but here are a few developments to watch given the contours of the field:
- As is now being universally pronounced, Mitt Romney will near prohibitive status if he pulls off consecutive wins in Iowa and New Hampshire. That being said, a non-Romney candidate(s) who follows the example of Barack Obama in 2008 -- mining seemingly low-value caucuses and primaries for delegates -- could stay in this thing for the long haul given the party's newfound reliance on proportional allocation in the early races. Consider: after the Super Tuesday contests, only a little over 60 percent of the delegates will have been chosen. If those delegates are distributed amongst a number of candidates, with no one having a lopsided majority, the race could be nearly as competitive then as it is today.
- Given all the hype that has preceded tonight, the media is likely to treat performance relative to expectations (rather than absolute performance) as the key metric afterward. Rick Santorum's rise has been so precipitous that he'll be regarded as a winner as long as he finishes within the top three (should he somehow fail to the reach that threshold, however, his campaign is essentially over.) Romney will be fine if he finishes behind either Paul (who is unelectable) or Santorum (who will probably have a hard time finding legs outside of Iowa). But even though the difference may be just a matter of a point or two, Romney will come in for further scrutiny about his inability to close the deal if he comes in third.
- The most interesting slot tonight may be # 3. While it's a longshot scenario, a third-place performance by either Gingrich, Perry, or Bachmann (she the least likely of the three) would revive a campaign (at least in the media's eyes) overnight.
- It would be almost unheard of to get through the Iowa Caucuses without at least one dropout. The most likely prospect: Michele Bachmann. Her base seems to be moving towards Santorum and if she finishes fifth or sixth less than five months after winning the Ames Straw Poll, it will underscore how far she has fallen in the Hawkeye State. On top of that, Bachmann has a congressional race to tend to in Minnesota. The odds are good that that campaign will begin tomorrow.
How about you? What do you see coming when the results start rolling in later tonight?
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Comments :
Re: And We're Off ...
Welcome aboard, Troy! I'm actually kind of excited for tonight's results, despite myself. I'm interested in everything but only in terms of performance relative to expectations.
I'm beginning to be intrigued by the fact that no one went negative against Romney during Iowa. I'm not sure that waiting for the Obama campaign to go negative against him is a wise strategy for GOP victory ...
Dec '10
Re: And We're Off ...
I have no predictions but I do have one hope: I hope Paul disappoints. I know I've just painted a giant target on my face, so fire away Paulestinians.
Jul '10
Re: And We're Off ...
I'll just say this: There are two campaigns who have headquarters in NC. Citizens get to vote in a primary held on May 8th.
The two candidates with headquarters?
President Obama.
and
Speaker Gingrich.
As a matter of fact, a PAC supporting Gingrich is advertising now in North Carolina.
Re: And We're Off ...
No target but are you sure that's what you want? If you like Perry, and you do, I should think you'd want Paul to exceed expectations at the expense of Romney and Santorum -- whose the most viable of the remaining? Perry heading into South Carolina.
Jul '10
Re: And We're Off ...
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.:
I'm beginning to be intrigued by the fact that no one went negative against Romney during Iowa. I'm not sure that waiting for the Obama campaign to go negative against him is a wise strategy for GOP victory ... · Jan 3 at 11:32am
Probably because their polling said that it would be better to be the "Romney alternative" than to try to take him down now. They know he has enough money to last awhile.
Why waste resources?
May '10
Re: And We're Off ...
I suspect that Bachmann may have done herself some real damage in her home district. All the Pawlenty allies are now enemies, former friends such as PowerLine are more skeptical now, etc.
Troy, you should ask King Banaian if he has any on-the-ground sense of how Mn 6 has reacted to her campaign over the last year, as opposed to representing, you know, the people who sent her to Washington.
Dec '10
Re: And We're Off ...
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.
No target but are you sure that's what you want? If you like Perry, and you do, I should think you'd want Paul to exceed expectations at the expense of Romney and Santorum -- whose the most viable of the remaining? Perry heading into South Carolina. · Jan 3 at 11:38am
The real battle in Iowa is, ironically, for third place. I don't think any votes lost to Paul will land on Romney. They could go to Santorum for his staunch social conservatism, or they could go to Perry for his executive experience and leadership skills. The battle between Perry and Santorum is based on their retail politics skills, and I hope Perry's come through for him and carry him at least to Florida. What I want most of all is to have a real contest for the official non-Romney that is based more on ideas, positions, and proposals than on gaffes.
Re: And We're Off ...
I think that's right, Michael. No one ever solidified "conservative alternative" status long enough to train their fire on Romney instead of the candidates on their right flank. Of those who had a shot, Perry was the one with the most inclination and the greatest resources. Romney managed to expertly defang him with the immigration issue, however, and he's been trying to play catchup ever since. All that to say it's not just luck. Romney has been very sharp in preempting his opposition.
Michael Tee
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.:
I'm beginning to be intrigued by the fact that no one went negative against Romney during Iowa. I'm not sure that waiting for the Obama campaign to go negative against him is a wise strategy for GOP victory ... · Jan 3 at 11:32am
Probably because their polling said that it would be better to be the "Romney alternative" than to try to take him down now. They know he has enough money to last awhile.
Why waste resources? · Jan 3 at 11:38am
May '10
Re: And We're Off ...
Out after tonight:
Michele Bachmann (Cue Liza Minelli - If you can't make there, you can't make it anywhere...)
Feb '11
Re: And We're Off ...
All the not-Romneys who fell back had a hand in their own regressions.
If Santorum is called a disappointment because his sudden rise created expectations a bit beyond his current reach, that would be a different thing altogether.
Aug '10
Re: And We're Off ...
I would love to see Ron Paul as Vice-President. My gut tells me he needs some time in the executive branch to see how realpolitik works in foreign affairs.
Feb '11
Re: And We're Off ...
Misthiocracy
I would love to see Ron Paul as Vice-President. My gut tells me he needs some time in the executive branch to see how realpolitik works in foreign affairs. · Jan 3 at 12:08pm
He would destroy the campaign both with what he says and by becoming a distraction. On the other hand, if he actually achieved the office, it would increase the total amount of prayer for the health of the President.
Jun '10
Re: And We're Off ...
I share your hope.
Dec '10
Re: And We're Off ...
Misthiocracy
I would love to see Ron Paul as Vice-President. My gut tells me he needs some time in the executive branch to see how realpolitik works in foreign affairs. · Jan 3 at 12:08pm
I would actually prefer someone like Perry for VP. He is a retail master. He has been a legislator and understands the process. Most importantly, he would be more in the mold of Cheney than of Biden in that he could exert pressure on the legislature and foreigners without being laughed at. If he can't get the top spot (which is likely) then I would gladly settle for him being the wizard behind the curtain pulling levers.
Dec '10
Re: And We're Off ...
Troy Senik, Ed.
The only thing that will give Romney near-prohibitive status would be wins with over 50% of the vote in IA and NH. If he wins with 20-25% in IA and 40% in NH, he gives further proof that 60% of the GOP voters want someone other than him or Ron Paul as their nominee.
Gingrich's poll numbers are still high enough in SC and FL to keep him in the race through those contests. Perry's bank account may be flush enough to keep him likewise in through January. But if Perry comes in 5th or below tonight, he won't have any momentum to pull up his SC/FL support and he will have to drop out after January -- unless Santorum crashes after IA and can't keep in the pack.
At this moment, I predict a four-man race by February: Romney, Paul, Gingrich and either Perry or Santorum... and it's not looking good for Perry right now. Maybe tonight will change that.
May '10
Re: And We're Off ...
Ack! Can't call you an editrix and it disrupts my categorization of the Three Furies. Plus I'm still sore that my edit of Rob's Red Eye didn't make the front page (it wasn't that anti-COC; some was, but that was bleeped).
My prediction: Safe, righteous, nutty, solid & doofy. Not a high-paying superfecta, I suspect many hold that ticket.
Re: And We're Off ...
Yes and no. The opposition is only electorally significant if it (A) unifies around one candidate or (B) creates the prolonged delegate fight that I described in the original post. Scenario A looks unlikely, as we've already cycled through virtually everyone in the field (and it's difficult to imagine Santorum's current momentum holding up outside of Iowa). As for B, it would require the candidates lagging Romney to have both the patience and the resources to endure a prolonged (i.e., several month) fight for the nomination. That would be the most interesting scenario, but I'm not sure they have the infrastructure to pull it off.
Stuart Creque
The only thing that will give Romney near-prohibitive status would be wins with over 50% of the vote in IA and NH. If he wins with 20-25% in IA and 40% in NH, he gives further proof that 60% of the GOP voters want someone other than him or Ron Paul as their nominee.
Jan 3 at 12:39pm
Dec '10
Re: And We're Off ...
Troy, the problem for Romney is that the voters still seem unwilling to coalesce around HIM. By contrast, in SC, FL and even to some extent in NH, voters are coalescing to some degree around Newt. As successive non-Romney-non-Paul candidates drop out of the field, if Romney can't pull them over the fence into his camp, Gingrich or the other remaining non/non candidate will pick up those who used to support the dropouts. It really depends on whether those voters' second choice is Anybody But Mitt: so far, that seems to be the case, because they've cycled through the ABM choices and fairly stubbornly refused to settle for Mitt.
Aug '10
Re: And We're Off ...
Tell the truth, Troy - did Peter make you pinky swear to hate everything Mitt in order to become a Ricochet editor?
It obviously was a requirement for Diane and Mollie...
Edited on Jan 3 at 2:09pmDec '10
Re: And We're Off ...
I heard Murphy on Dennis Miller just a while ago, and he thinks Paul will underperform. How's the weather in Iowa today?