An Update on the Governors' Races
There have been a lot of surprises in the governors' races this fall. For instance, a Daily Kos/PPP poll shows Abercrombie in a 48-48 tie with Aiona in Hawaii. In New Mexico, Martinez has been ahead in every poll for a month. Dudley is ahead in Oregon. There's a very tight race going on in South Carolina. Otter is under 50 percent in Idaho. And surely there will be more surprises in the run-up to the election.
Since October began, several polls show gains by Democrats, but the question is, is that the inevitable “coming home” by Democrat voters that will result in nothing more than closer Republican victories or is it a real rally by the Democrats? My own view is that there is some closing – whether it will affect just the GOP margin or the outcome of the race will be a state-by-state affair.
I expect a final outcome of about 30 GOP governors come January.
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Aug '10
Re: An Update on the Governors' Races
What is the latest on the Deal (R) v. Barnes (D) race in Georgia? There have been a lot of recent news articles about Deal's finances recently which I think have hurt him.
I had the opportunity to meet him and hear him speak yesterday which made me feel better. But I am afraid we may be in for another four with King Roy.
May '10
Re: An Update on the Governors' Races
Here in Texas I was briefly worried about Rick Perry. No problem. Obama is like a cement overcoat on Bill White.
Sep '10
Re: An Update on the Governors' Races
In Wisconsin, Barret (D) has closed in a bit on Walker (R) over the last couple polls. This is mostly because of a shotgun blast of attack ads in the last few weeks. The primary race forced Walker to spend much of his resources, so he is being outspent at the moment, but that should change in the coming weeks.
However, I see little chance of a Democrat win here. The numbers just won't work. Wisconsin, generally speaking, has two massive liberal/progressive/socialist hubs in Madison and Milwaukee. The rest of the state is mostly independent to conservative leaning. The big factor this year is that both candidates are from the Milwaukee area (mayor vs. county exec). Walker is a very unique commodity given his ability to gain votes in Milwaukee County as a Republican. No Democrat has won statewide race in several decades without at least 60% of Milwaukee County.
This will be a significant governorship for the GOP to hold during the 2012 presidential campaign.
Jun '10
Re: An Update on the Governors' Races
In Minnesota, as usual, we have a third-party "middle-of-the-road" candidate (Tom Horner) that will draw significantly from one or both of the major-party candidates. That makes the predictions much more difficult. In this case, I think Horner draws more from the Republican (Emmer), and helps the Democrat (Dayton). Same old same old.
Jul '10
Re: An Update on the Governors' Races
What the heck is wrong with you people?
Jesse Ventura, Al Franken and Mark "I'm closing my office and fleeing the Capitol" Dayton?
I understand partisanship. But you guys have descended into bad comedy.
Jul '10
Re: An Update on the Governors' Races
Back off, Kenneth! We're only half crazy. Well, 50% +1.
Part of what we are seeing - here and elsewhere - is the media/poll machine doing its best to convince Democrats that they have a chance. I know some of the recent MN Governor polls have been outrageously skewed in their sampling.
The real question is, what will happen when Ds and Rs wake up on election day? Republicans and Independents will jump out of bed and race to the polls to vote. I don't think Dems will. Is anybody in Minnesota really excited at the prospect of a Dayton governorship? I don't think so.
Look for the polls to continue to show tightening, and then be proved utterly wrong on election day.
Jul '10
Re: An Update on the Governors' Races
Hay, mesquito..... who's Bill White?
May '10
Re: An Update on the Governors' Races
I wish Erlich was doing better in Maryland. The prospect of more O'Malley is enough to make me want to move back to Virginia.
May '10
Re: An Update on the Governors' Races
The google says he's a Democrat deranged enough to run for statewide office in Texas.
May '10
Re: An Update on the Governors' Races
Whoa, there - "a very tight race in South Carolina"? Is there something I'm missing?