An Encouraging Dollop of Insider-y Gossip
Peter Robinson ·
September 10, 2012 at 8:51pm
From a friend at a major news organization:
What I hear is that things are a lot more unstable than the polls suggest. Romney could lose by a point or, in the event of a break, win by five.
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Nov '10
Re: An Encouraging Dollop of Insider-y Gossip
Unstable meaning, "we can't predict what is going to happen." That is encouraging, given that the other side seems to always be in control of the game.
May '10
Re: An Encouraging Dollop of Insider-y Gossip
That does not sound encouraging to me. Lose by a point?
The nation is pretty messed up. We may really be too far gone, if we reelect Obama.
Apr '11
Re: An Encouraging Dollop of Insider-y Gossip
That's it. Be incouraged by an "insider" while the rest of us out here in the hinterland think that pessimism is very premature at this point.
As I thought yesterday on another thread, the suit of the DOJ against Gallup might play a point or two in the polls.
May '12
Re: An Encouraging Dollop of Insider-y Gossip
It has been a day of concern for me. However --- two bright spots:
1) Romney is down by 1 in the "swing state" Rasmussen poll (while 5 behind in the over all polling). . . or . . is it relevant that Obama wins bigger in "non-swing" CA, NY, or Mass?)
2) Input from Michael Medved: No presidential incumbent has been re-elected, if he is doing poorer than his first term (which Obama is).
Hope this holds true.
Edited on September 10, 2012 at 9:21pmMar '11
Re: An Encouraging Dollop of Insider-y Gossip
I'd like to know more about that first sentence.... hearing from who? unstable how?
Jun '10
Re: An Encouraging Dollop of Insider-y Gossip
It's a turnout election. And really, most elections are. Whoever generates more enthusiasm within their natural base...wins.
Mar '12
Re: An Encouraging Dollop of Insider-y Gossip
The MSM, and it appears at least some of their peers at places like Fox, are in the tank over the numbers. However it appears that Rasmussen and his lot are in the tank for Obama. The numbers are slanted in a particular way, using whatever methodology is required to make the Dem/lib/socialist look good.
Having people have heart palpitations over the numbers may make for good television, but it makes for miserable politics.
For a long time, I have had the impression that IF the people elected actually served those who elected them, the electors would like to get on with their lives. Lives as spouses, lives as parents, lives with their congregations, lives with their extended families and neighbors, lives coaching or watching Little League or City League as their kids grew up.
Unfortunately for us, our elected officials held us in contempt and are largely fit to be replaced.
Maybe the greatest generation, the people who opened the floodgates for this kind of political shenanigan, are a bit less great. I love my father but with rare exception since FDR, Reagan as an exception, we could have done a lot better.
Aug '10
Re: An Encouraging Dollop of Insider-y Gossip
"Keep Calm and Ricochet On"
Aug '10
Re: An Encouraging Dollop of Insider-y Gossip
Where does this insider get his/her information, if not from "the polls"?
Jan '12
Re: An Encouraging Dollop of Insider-y Gossip
...and who ever 'lies, cheats and steals' their way to victory, too!
Jan '12
Re: An Encouraging Dollop of Insider-y Gossip
"It is the best of times, it is the worst of times..."
Automation will be our undoing, both at the ballot box, in the short term, and in cyberspace, in the long.
The marvel of the internet that allows us to chat and pay our bills on-line , is also the same technology which can make voter fraud, on a massive scale, possible and hard to prove.
Obama and his side, will not relinquish power, and unless the voting public is in a 'revolutionary' mood (where we could win by a landslide), it is not likely that we will prevail if it is close, because they simply will not let it happen!
Jul '10
Re: An Encouraging Dollop of Insider-y Gossip
I don't remember where I saw it, but it was buried in the story; by design was my thought. It said the undecideds are primarily white men in their 50s, stressed about the economy. I don't think these voters are exactly ripe for the picking by Obama.
Nov '10
Re: An Encouraging Dollop of Insider-y Gossip
My thought is that this is a little like a military operation: don't reinforce failure; that is a bad choice under the best of circumstances
But, once committed, so long as the situation is "fluid" or "unbalanced", in other words, so long as the outcome is uncertain, pound harder on the original line of attack and never give up. I pray and expect that that is what Romney and Ryan will do.
They have the winning side; they must hang on like pit bulls and grind away. Optimism and pessimism have no place in the calculations at this point.
May '12
Re: An Encouraging Dollop of Insider-y Gossip
I try and ignore this sort of Post. This fretting over this Poll and that Tidbit, this statement that sets the Conservatives off or the Liberals on.
The only news worth remembering in the last few days is this:
Unemployment = 8.1%
OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT! The stat they've juked!
The rest of this is the 24-Hour News Industry doing what they've been reduced to. Idle Chatter.
Jan '11
Re: An Encouraging Dollop of Insider-y Gossip
At the Ace of Spades HQ, there is often mention of a "preference cascade" - which I find a fascinating possibility
Sep '12
Re: An Encouraging Dollop of Insider-y Gossip
I could be wrong, but aren't things always pretty unstable until the debates? Particularly in the case of an unpopular incumbent and an struggling economy? It seems that Reagan in September '80 and Clinton in September '92 were in much the same position that Romney is in September '12.
Re: An Encouraging Dollop of Insider-y Gossip
We should relax. In October, lots of people who say today that they are for Obama will ask a sample question: Can we tolerate four more years of this?
Let me add that in 1997 36% of those called participated in Pew Foundation polls. Now the number is 9%.
The fact that Obama could not fill a football stadium with screaming supporters tells the tale.
Be of good cheer!
Aug '10
Re: An Encouraging Dollop of Insider-y Gossip
Why don't we agree to the obvious ?
If you see it in the paper , chances are that it's not true.
If you watch Alphabet TVs ABCNBCBSCNN, you know it's not true.
If you read it on Ricochet, then whip up a frenzied comments stream and we 'll deal with it in a thoughtful , yet cynical manner.
As a noted German dictator once decided on Sep 1, 1939, to heck with the polls.
Apr '11
Re: An Encouraging Dollop of Insider-y Gossip
Paul A. Rahe: We should relax. In October, lots of people who say today that they are for Obama will ask a sample question: Can we tolerate four more years of this?
Let me add that in 1997 36% of those called participated in Pew Foundation polls. Now the number is 9%.
The fact that Obama could not fill a football stadium with screaming supporters tells the tale.
Be of good cheer! · 1 hour ago
This, Professor. Hope you are well.
Are you going to believe those numbers or your lying eyes? My gut as well as my eyes and ears tell me a different story. Plus, I'm in a swing state.
Edited on September 11, 2012 at 1:32amMar '11
Re: An Encouraging Dollop of Insider-y Gossip
Edward Smith: I try and ignore this sort of Post. This fretting over this Poll and that Tidbit, this statement that sets the Conservatives off or the Liberals on.
The only news worth remembering in the last few days is this:
Unemployment = 8.1%
OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT! The stat they've juked!
The rest of this is the 24-Hour News Industry doing what they've been reduced to. Idle Chatter. · 2 hours ago
Unemployement stayed high during the depression. Wages stayed low. Businesses still failed. And people re-elected FDR in droves. Not because he actually accomplished anything. Not because he solved any problems. Any objective, honest man has to admit that he did more harm than good. So why did get get elected four times?
Because he gave them... "hope".
Feel better now? Me neither.