Americans Prefer Bankruptcy
This isn't good news. From today's NYTimes:
As labor battles erupt in state capitals around the nation, a majority of Americans say they oppose efforts to weaken the collective bargaining rights of public employee unions and are also against cutting the pay or benefits of public workers to reduce state budget deficits, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.
This suggests a bunch of things. First, that we've been celebrating a little too much. There's still a lot of hard word persuading people that we're right about this stuff. Sometimes, between pinning medals on each other and preaching to the choir, we forget that. Or, at least, speaking for myself, I forget that. There are still an awful lot of liberals out there.
Second, that tax cuts -- anathema to us -- aren't anathema to a lot of other folks. We think we're broke. We think America is teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. They think there's nothing wrong with our balance sheet that a hefty hike in the income tax won't solve:
Tax increases were not as unpopular among those surveyed as they are among many governors, who have vowed to avoid them. Asked how they would choose to reduce their state’s deficits, those polled preferred tax increases over benefit cuts for state workers by nearly two to one. Given a list of options to reduce the deficit, 40 percent said they would increase taxes, 22 percent chose decreasing the benefits of public employees, 20 percent said they would cut financing for roads and 3 percent said they would cut financing for education.
They're wrong on economics, of course. But they're right about the basic math. We need to, once again, insist that economic growth -- and jobs -- only come in a low-tax environment that rewards entrepreneurial capitalism.
And third, here's what we're up against:
The nationwide telephone poll was conducted Feb. 24-27 with 984 adults and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for all adults. Of those surveyed, 20 percent said there was a union member in their household, and 25 percent said there was a public employee in their household.
Check out that last sentence: 25% of the respondents have a public employee in the house? One in four? Sure -- that means the poll is skewed. I mean, I hope it's skewed. Twenty-five percent of America's workforce is part of a government union? Really? So, um, it's official. We're France.
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Sep '10
Re: Americans Prefer Bankruptcy
If we're France there should be more overturned flaming cars in the street. I assume the poll oversampled people at home during the day, which would oversample shift workers, which would oversample unionized shift workers. Or, maybe the sample was concentrated on unionized newspaper employees.
Jun '10
Re: Americans Prefer Bankruptcy
How many times have you been told not to read the Times?
May '10
Re: Americans Prefer Bankruptcy
I'm going back to bed and pulling the covers over my head.
Jul '10
Re: Americans Prefer Bankruptcy
I wouldn't worry too much Rob. This is pretty illuminating:
But 61 percent of those polled — including just over half of Republicans — said they thought the salaries and benefits of most public employees were either “about right” or “too low” for the work they do.
That's obviously a crock, and it's easily fixed. I'd bet that anywhere the issue is on the front burner (which is not nationwide, yet) a constant drumbeat about the relative compensation of public & private sector employees can flip those poll numbers. The fact that half of Republicans believe this tells me that the old narrative that public employees trade pay for security & benefits still has traction.
We shouldn't be complacent, but as long as we keep saying:
They make more than you. They have greater job security and better benefits than you. They take all of those things from your wages.
we'll win the argument.
May '10
Re: Americans Prefer Bankruptcy
I'm no polling expert, but I am a labor and employment lawyer. Union membership rates fell last year to under 7% of the private sector workforce for the first time ever, so less than one in ten people in the private workforce are unionized. Overall, the total percentage of unionization is a bit higher when you include the public sector but, still, the number only goes up to about 12% of the total public and private sector workforce.
So, again, I'm no polling expert but methinks that 984 person sample was horribly skewed. I can guarantee they didn't call many (if any) people in my neck of the woods in the Carolinas. Union membership in NC and SC is typically around 4%, maybe a tenth of a point or two less.
Beaufort still calls you, Rob.
Jan '11
Re: Americans Prefer Bankruptcy
The larger sample size of the 2008 election yielded the same conclusion.
Better to build the Titanic than to ride it.
Dec '10
Re: Americans Prefer Bankruptcy
Rob, you should check out Ed Morrissey's dissection of this poll at Hot Air: http://hotair.com/archives/2011/03/01/a-peek-under-the-hood-of-the-nytcbs-poll/. In a nutshell: the CBS/NYT poll horribly oversamples both Democrats and union members.
Dec '10
Re: Americans Prefer Bankruptcy
Now more than ever, and moving forward, any poll sponsored by MSM entities should be highly suspect. The left thinks the ends justifies the means and they see any challenge to the power of public sector unions as an existential threat. They are capable of doing almost anything to preserve that power.
Edited on Mar 1, 2011 at 7:07amFeb '11
Re: Americans Prefer Bankruptcy
Many people, especially younger people, don't even have a land-line phone and hence any telephone survey based on calls to land-line phones will miss these people entirely.
Other people, such as me, *do* have land-line phones, but will hang up on any call made by an autodialer if it keeps me waiting for more than about 5-10 seconds.
Jul '10
Re: Americans Prefer Bankruptcy
The poll is being called shoddy by John Steele Gordon over at Commentary.
From the NYT's story:
Edited on Mar 1, 2011 at 7:29amMay '10
Re: Americans Prefer Bankruptcy
There was a story in our local paper this morning that city to which I pay taxes was going to give its police force a 3% raise. Now, if Tom is a good cop, and Harry is a lousy cop why do they both deserve a pay rise? That's the insanity of collective bargaining.
Aug '10
Re: Americans Prefer Bankruptcy
Nickolas
Now more than ever, and moving forward, any poll sponsored by MSM entities should be highly suspect. The left thinks the ends justifies the means and they see any challenge to the power of public sector unions as an existential threat. They are capable of doing almost anything to preserve that power. · Mar 1 at 7:04am
Edited on Mar 01 at 07:07 am
Like reading a Zogby on "Arab Americans think that blah blah blah ..." when his brother is head of the Arab American Institute. CBS and NYT writers all shared the same red diapers, weaned on the milk of corporate distrust, and were wet-nursed by Norma Rae.
Re: Americans Prefer Bankruptcy
I regard The New York Times as I regard Barack Obama. They are the gift that keeps on giving. This fraudulent poll is designed to encourage the Fleebaggers of Wisconsin and their cousins in Indiana, and it will reinforce the predilection of the radicals and the union thugs up in Madison. Ladies and gentlemen, it cannot be the case that the Democrats are this foolish. I once again detect the hand of that evil genius Karl Rove.
Jul '10
Re: Americans Prefer Bankruptcy
Fleebaggers. Pure genius.
Dec '10
Re: Americans Prefer Bankruptcy
"Second, that tax cuts -- anathema to us -- aren't anathema to a lot of other folks." Surely you meant "tax increases"?
Re: Americans Prefer Bankruptcy
Rasmussen has a slightly different take.
Edited on Mar 1, 2011 at 9:12amRe: Americans Prefer Bankruptcy
Yikes. Forgive me. I just got off the red-eye from LAX to Washington, DC. Momentarily stupified.
Feb '11
Re: Americans Prefer Bankruptcy
Part of the problem here is that the term "collective bargaining rights" is ill-defined, specifically as it applies in the Wisconsin context (at least in my limited Google searches). When I hear "collective bargaining" I think organization, representation, and striking. Is Wisconsin attempting to limit any of these? As Americans we have the right to free speech and free association; if the employees decide to gather, appoint a representative, and go on strike, what exactly are we proposing the consequence of that will be? Will we arrest the strikers? On the other hand, if are we talking about not guaranteeing job security while out on strike, no binding arbitration, and eliminating mandatory union membership then these are issues we can work with - and win with. Let's define the debate properly and not allow ourselves to be demagogued.
Feb '11
Re: Americans Prefer Bankruptcy
TAX CUTS FOR BILLIONAIRES / PAY CUTS FOR TEACHERS
Here's the problem.
Balancing the budget is for conservatives and libertarians what Global Warming is for lefties, a moral imperative not an economic one.
There is zero possiblity of the United States going bankrupt. That claim is entirely bogus. It is impossible for a country that prints its own currency to reach a point where it cannot pay the debts it owes in that currency.
If the Treasury Dept. wanted to it could have a trillion dollar coin, coined tomorrow and delivered to the Chinese to pay what we owe them. The Chinese could deposit that coin in their Fed account and begin spending their dollars buying things from Americans. The Chinese don't want to do that. They want us to buy stuff from them.
Cutting government spending during a recession is exactly equivalent to raising taxes and is therefore a mistake. Conservatives have yet to explain how balancing the budget is going to reduce unemployment, I assume that's because they know it won't.
The only people who benefit economically from a balanced budget are people who are owed dollars. You know, the Chinese, Japanese, Saudis etc.
Oct '10
Re: Americans Prefer Bankruptcy
Everyone's been expecting public-union support to plummet this year; I guess we celebrated too early that it had finally happened. Gah.