America, in a Moving Van
In my post yesterday regarding out-migration from California, I referenced the recent "Rich States, Poor States" study produced by the American Legislative Exchange Council. This publication, which is in its 5th annual edition, is invaluable because, as often as we talk about states as "laboratories of democracy", we rarely bother ourselves with the logical correlate of that belief: that public policy in each of the states should be systematically analyzed and compared to give us an idea of best practices. That's exactly what Arthur Laffer, Stephen Moore, and Jonathan Williams do in the study and the results are fascinating.
What has struck me most as I read through the report are the migratory patterns that the authors note. During the last decade, these were the states with the highest net domestic migration:
- Florida
- Texas
- Arizona
- North Carolina
- Georgia
- Nevada
- South Carolina
- Tennessee
- Washington
- Colorado
And these were the states in the bottom 10 (1 being the worst):
- New York
- California
- Illinois
- Michigan
- New Jersey
- Ohio
- Louisiana
- Massachusetts
- Connecticut
- Maryland
You may notice a few patterns. The vast majority of states gaining in population are either solidly conservative or at least-right leaning, while most of the losers incline in the other direction. Taxes and regulation tend to be far lower in the states with higher in-migration than in those that are bleeding citizens.
But here's the one that jumped out at me: Of the 10 states with the biggest gains, eight are right-to-work states (the exceptions, Washington and Colorado, owe their popularity in part to being destinations of choice for Californians who aren't willing to leave their liberalism behind.) Meanwhile, only one of the 10 states at the bottom is right to work -- Louisiana, whose decline in population is an aberration attributable to Hurricane Katrina rather than economic causes. Perhaps the slogan should be amended to "live better, work union, and watch the whole thing burn to the ground around you."
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Aug '10
Re: America, in a Moving Van
With the Shale oil boom and overall economic changes I would guess in the net positive side. But the Obama moratorium on Gulf Oil production isn't helping.
Dec '11
Re: America, in a Moving Van
Florida, Tennessee, and Texas have no individual income tax but Nevada wins- no individual or corporate or franchise taxes.
Jul '11
Re: America, in a Moving Van
Michael Horn: While this is validating in some respects, it's also slightly alarming.
Are the states receiving the migrating population becoming more liberal? Or are the people moving becoming more conservative?
If the new arrivals are making the red states more blue, then this is not something to celebrate. Does anyone have data on this? · 5 hours ago
Not slightly - it's highly alarming.
I had a front row seat for the mid-eighties to late-nineties systematic destruction of Austin, Texas until I was able to escape through a tunnel under the wall that the occupying Californicators had built using organic bricks and free-trade concertina.
I knew we were in trouble in when I couldn't drive to work without see California license plates.
It's a mistake to think that only the conservatives are leaving California - liberals don't hate taxes, they just hate taxes that they have to pay.
To the people of California: Texas is full. Do not come here.
Apr '11
Re: America, in a Moving Van
One of the fascinating things with this data is the negative correlation with the unemployment rate. People move for work, sure, but not many of them move to North Dakota, where the jobs are. They move to, eg., Nevada, land of no taxes, but also no jobs; Nevada is the most unemployed state in the country, at 12%. I do get that immigration doesn't help, but 12% is still unbelievably high.
North Carolina, #4 on the migrated to list, clocks in at #47 on unemployment list, Georgia and Florida at #43 equal, South Carolina #42. The rest of the top 10 are rank in the 30s on unemployment, except Texas at #20.
On the other side of the non-existent Berlin Wall, the homelands of the emigres are, once you get past the top 5, relatively low in unemployment. Louisiana clocks in next to Texas, Ohio at 28, Connecticut 30, Maryland 16 and Massachusetts 15. With Connecticut weighing in at 7.7% and Massachusetts at 6.5%, those are all much better than average (8.2%).
Dec '10
Re: America, in a Moving Van
I'm just way simpler than you all. I look at those lists and all I can see is that one list of states is dominated by liberal governance (net losers) and the other is dominated by conservative governance (net winners). That's it. It's all I get.
And don't bet on formerly conservative states being spared the liberal blight. That's exactly what's happened here in Colorado (although we've always had a hippie "green" element contributing some weird electoral pathology). If you live in a destination location which is also relatively prosperous, you're vulnerable.
Mar '12
Re: America, in a Moving Van
The influx of tax refugees from Boston and environs is a major talking point amongst relatives (and their neighbors) living in Maine and New Hampshire. They move north to affordable housing and lower sales taxes (ask anyone who used to live in MA if they ever snuck across the border to NH, home of no sales tax). Then, to the local's dismay, they start agitating because things aren't as "nice" as they were back home, and the cycle starts.
Dec '11
Re: America, in a Moving Van
James Of England
One of the fascinating things with this data is the negative correlation with the unemployment rate. People move for work, sure, but not many of them move to North Dakota, where the jobs are. They move to, eg., Nevada, land of no taxes, but also no jobs; Nevada is the most unemployed state in the country, at 12%.Carolina #42.
Percentages are tricky things. Nevada has a high unemployment rate because the state attracted an unusual number of outsiders from dysfunctional economies and perhaps is unable (currently) to absorb them all. The fact remains that the state tax policies are impressive in their pro-business slant.
Apr '11
Re: America, in a Moving Van
EThompson
Percentages are tricky things. Nevada has a high unemployment rate because the state attracted an unusual number of outsiders from dysfunctional economies and perhaps is unable (currently) to absorb them all. The fact remains that the state tax policies are impressive in their pro-business slant. · 59 minutes ago
When the Dems took Congress five years ago (Jan 2007), Nevada had an unemployment rate of 4.2%. Since then, its population has gone up by 4.4% (according to the BEA), and its unemployment rate has gone up by 7.8% to 12%. The former is a part of the reason for the latter, but it's simply not big enough to explain even half of it (some of the people coming to Nevada created jobs).
I like the politics of Nevada, too, but the best spin we have is that there's a lot going on in the economy above and beyond government influence. 12% is simply enormous; Hispanic unemployment is at 19%, in failed state territory, worse than Detroit's.
Oct '10
Re: America, in a Moving Van
Romney should be tying Obamanomics to California in his future speeches.