America, in a Moving Van
In my post yesterday regarding out-migration from California, I referenced the recent "Rich States, Poor States" study produced by the American Legislative Exchange Council. This publication, which is in its 5th annual edition, is invaluable because, as often as we talk about states as "laboratories of democracy", we rarely bother ourselves with the logical correlate of that belief: that public policy in each of the states should be systematically analyzed and compared to give us an idea of best practices. That's exactly what Arthur Laffer, Stephen Moore, and Jonathan Williams do in the study and the results are fascinating.
What has struck me most as I read through the report are the migratory patterns that the authors note. During the last decade, these were the states with the highest net domestic migration:
- Florida
- Texas
- Arizona
- North Carolina
- Georgia
- Nevada
- South Carolina
- Tennessee
- Washington
- Colorado
And these were the states in the bottom 10 (1 being the worst):
- New York
- California
- Illinois
- Michigan
- New Jersey
- Ohio
- Louisiana
- Massachusetts
- Connecticut
- Maryland
You may notice a few patterns. The vast majority of states gaining in population are either solidly conservative or at least-right leaning, while most of the losers incline in the other direction. Taxes and regulation tend to be far lower in the states with higher in-migration than in those that are bleeding citizens.
But here's the one that jumped out at me: Of the 10 states with the biggest gains, eight are right-to-work states (the exceptions, Washington and Colorado, owe their popularity in part to being destinations of choice for Californians who aren't willing to leave their liberalism behind.) Meanwhile, only one of the 10 states at the bottom is right to work -- Louisiana, whose decline in population is an aberration attributable to Hurricane Katrina rather than economic causes. Perhaps the slogan should be amended to "live better, work union, and watch the whole thing burn to the ground around you."
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Jul '11
Re: America, in a Moving Van
Right to Work is the only way to go. Corporations that want to stay in the US have only a few logical choices. As many pointed out in your post Troy, conservatives in these states abhor liberals who move there for a better life but have no clue why they had to move and what's worse, they keep voting liberal.
Jun '10
Re: America, in a Moving Van
The laboratories of the states in action just as the Founders intended. Who'da thunk it?
Aug '10
Re: America, in a Moving Van
<devil's advocate mode = on>
80% of the top states have (arguably) nicer weather than 80% of the bottom states.
<devil's advocate mode = off>
Re: America, in a Moving Van
Doesn't hurt, but if weather was that significant of a variable I'd expect to see California at least 45 slots higher. And I also wouldn't expect quite so much growth in Southern states where going outside during the summer feels like standing behind a tailpipe.
Misthiocracy: <devil's advocate mode = on>
80% of the top states have (arguably) nicer weather than 80% of the bottom states.
<devil's advocate mode = off> · 0 minutes ago
Mar '12
Re: America, in a Moving Van
As a former Floridian, I'm not surprised to see it at the top of his list. I think it has less to do with economic/labor policy and more for it's reputation as "the" place to retire. They don't call it "God's waiting room" for nothing.
Apr '11
Re: America, in a Moving Van
Yeah. California's weather ranges from mild to sometimes a little too hot. We don't experience winter the further south you go. I live in a part that benefits from incredibly mild weather and simply gorgeous scenery.
It speaks a lot about California's governmental policy that people are actually fleeing this state.
Re: America, in a Moving Van
That's certainly a big factor, but so is the lack of a state income tax. For anecdotal evidence, look at professional sports. Sports Illustrated had a piece recently on how it's become a trend for high-income athletes to set up shop in the Sunshine State to avoid the income tax (LeBron James was pretty open about this). You've got to imagine that -- particularly given all the other inducements to living in Florida -- the trend is not limited to that industry alone.
Nov '10
Re: America, in a Moving Van
I had a great job, as close as I am ever going to get to having a dream job, in LA. And my wife had a great teaching job at a premier school in the Palos Verdes public school system. We had a great apartment less than a mile from the beach in El Segundo, a tiny beach town just south of LAX that had more in common with Mayberry than it did Santa Monica or Venice to the North. It was in many ways a perfect life for a young married couple. But we knew we couldn't afford to purchase a house and we could not afford private school for our kids. We couldn't even afford to have kids. And we saw the toll it took on people in our situation that were willing to battle reality. It was draining. We wanted to raise a family, and knew LA, and California in general, was not the place for it. So I left my dream job in order to chase a dream in Austin, TX back in 2007. And soon moved onto a street filled with similar refugees from CA, NY and MI.
Here, you can still dream.
Jan '12
Re: America, in a Moving Van
Troy just so you'll know next time, out-migration is called emigration and in-migration is called immigration.
Jan '11
Re: America, in a Moving Van
Also, the purchasing power from one's wages goes further in right-to-work states.
Re: America, in a Moving Van
I'm familiar. The distinction confuses readers sometimes, however, and my rule of thumb is not to use diction that causes the reader to pause when diction that doesn't would do the job just as effectively.
Dec '10
Re: America, in a Moving Van
I'm surprised Washington made it so high on the list; you can get a Starbucks anywhere these days.
Dec '10
Re: America, in a Moving Van
While this is validating in some respects, it's also slightly alarming.
Are the states receiving the migrating population becoming more liberal? Or are the people moving becoming more conservative?
If the new arrivals are making the red states more blue, then this is not something to celebrate. Does anyone have data on this?
Mar '12
Re: America, in a Moving Van
Logic dictates that the ones heading to redder pastures would be more sympathetic to conservative ideals. Also, if they are making the red states bluer by addition, they also make their former homes redder by subtraction. I have a feeling it's the opposite. I think this represent folks "Going Galt" on a state level. This would make the political make-up of each state more homogeneous. Redder reds and bluer blues. Like a good laundry detergent.
Michael Horn: While this is validating in some respects, it's also slightly alarming.
Are the states receiving the migrating population becoming more liberal? Or are the people moving becoming more conservative?
If the new arrivals are making the red states more blue, then this is not something to celebrate. Does anyone have data on this? · 24 minutes ago
Sep '11
Re: America, in a Moving Van
This is something I pointed out under Troy's post from yesterday. I think Chairborne is being optimistic in thinking that most people actually understand why their state is losing jobs. Most folks simply don't pay attention.
Michael Horn: While this is validating in some respects, it's also slightly alarming.
Are the states receiving the migrating population becoming more liberal? Or are the people moving becoming more conservative?
If the new arrivals are making the red states more blue, then this is not something to celebrate. Does anyone have data on this? · 47 minutes ago
Sep '11
Re: America, in a Moving Van
I bet Louisiana knocks Washington off the first list in the next go round...
Re: America, in a Moving Van
I suspect it's probably a combination of the two. I've yet to see a good empirical analysis of this, but my anecdotal experience has been that about 2/3 of California refugees are actively fleeing the liberal mindset and the products thereof. The other 1/3, as Dutch mentions, like the mindset but hate the outcomes, not realizing the two are inextricably linked. People in the latter group, however, tend to migrate elsewhere in the West, as they'd rather die than live in the South.
DutchTex: This is something I pointed out under Troy's post from yesterday. I think Chairborne is being optimistic in thinking that most people actually understand why their state is losing jobs. Most folks simply don't pay attention.
Michael Horn: While this is validating in some respects, it's also slightly alarming.
Are the states receiving the migrating population becoming more liberal? Or are the people moving becoming more conservative?
If the new arrivals are making the red states more blue, then this is not something to celebrate. Does anyone have data on this? · 47 minutes ago
53 minutes ago
May '11
Re: America, in a Moving Van
I wonder where Louisiana would settle if the factored out the Katrina-effect?
Dec '10
Re: America, in a Moving Van
Troy Senik, Ed.: I suspect it's probably a combination of the two. I've yet to see a good empirical analysis of this, but my anecdotal experience has been that about 2/3 of California refugees are actively fleeing the liberal mindset and the products thereof. The other 1/3, as Dutch mentions, like the mindset but hate the outcomes, not realizing the two are inextricably linked. People in the latter group, however, tend to migrate elsewhere in the West, as they'd rather die than live in the South.
DutchTex: This is something I pointed out under Troy's post from yesterday. I think Chairborne is being optimistic in thinking that most people actually understand why their state is losing jobs. Most folks simply don't pay attention.
There's a reason I refer to Seattle as San Fran North or the freak overflow...
Dec '10
Re: America, in a Moving Van
Troy Senik, Ed.: I suspect it's probably a combination of the two. I've yet to see a good empirical analysis of this, but my anecdotal experience has been that about 2/3 of California refugees are actively fleeing the liberal mindset and the products thereof. The other 1/3, as Dutch mentions, like the mindset but hate the outcomes, not realizing the two are inextricably linked. People in the latter group, however, tend to migrate elsewhere in the West, as they'd rather die than live in the South.
26 minutes ago
"If they would rather die, they had better do it, and decrease the surplus population."
Sorry, Troy, your last bit there reminded me of a quote from the greatest Christmas movie ever.