Already a Fascinating Week...
Hello everyone, Michael Duffy here, posting for the first time. Thanks for having me aboard. And thanks to my patient handlers at Ricochet for putting up with my pathetically weak tech skills.
In a political year that already boasts an accelerating pace, the first week of June is shaping up as an important bell ringer: already this morning, the Supreme Court has begun to clarify what cases it will -- and won't -- hear during next year's term; Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, who haven't exactly been singing from the same hymnal lately, host a fundraiser tonight in NYC, one of three Obama will attend in a single evening; and as readers of this site know, Wisconsin's much-watched gubernatorial recall comes tomorrow. One of the smarter takes I've read on that vote, by the usually prescient John Ellis, tells us in very specific terms what Tuesday's vote means for the November election.
It can be read here. Let me know what you think.
- Comment (19)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (1)
Comments:
Jul '10
Re: Already a Fascinating Week...
I guess I'm old fashioned, but a win is a win however it's sliced. Let others paw through the goat entrails for deeper meaning.
Like Axelrod, for example. I see him making the case that Walker really lost if the analysis is sophisticated enough. I further see the oddly-named MSM swallowing it hook, line and sinker. It's what they do.
Jan '11
Re: Already a Fascinating Week...
Why are we arbitrarily imposing a handicap? By what logic do we say that a Walker victory by one or two points isn't good enough?
I don't dispute that pundits will add a handicap to Walker. But I'd like to discuss why we're doing it, and why we're creating/accepting an excuse for the Left to walk away claiming victory, if in fact they lose.
In football, bookies (excuse me, analysts) create point spreads. The point spreads are only a measure of the bookie's skills at predictions. But then these same analysts (excuse me, bookies) have the gall to disparage a team because it doesn't always meet the point spread. But the point spread is the bookie's expectation in the first place! If the team doesn't match the point spread, that's the bookie's fault, not the team's.
That's what this looks like. Political pundits are laying down a point spread. These pundits want to blame Walker if he doesn't match their expectations. Instead, the results should be used as evidence that the pundits don't know what they think they know.
Sep '11
Re: Already a Fascinating Week...
This is about as clear a case of the media "managing expectations" as I can think of. The gist of the article is clear: anything less than a 6% margin of victory by Scott Walker will be a crashing disappointment, and should steel the resolve of those stalwarts in Chicago to Further the Fight.
Bosh.
The MSM devoted all kinds of print space and broadcast airtime to the protests last spring; they devoted all kinds of print space and airtime to the start of the recall campaign; they devoted all kinds of space and time to the filing of the petitions.
Big media play.
But then the polls started adding up, consistently showing Walker ahead. Even Democratic polls showed Walker ahead. The media's response?
Crickets.
Now it's getting ugly--the Left is mailing voters directly, showing them when they have voted--and which of their neighbors have voted (or did not). Legal--but clearly meant as intimidation. And the MSM response?
Crickets.
Now we have the MSM response. Yes--the Obama campaign has decided Barrett's losing. But unless Walker wins by at least 6, this is a moral victory!
Nice try. Not buying it.
Sep '10
Re: Already a Fascinating Week...
John Murdoch: This is about as clear a case of the media "managing expectations" as I can think of....
Now we have the MSM response. Yes--the Obama campaign has decided Barrett's losing.But unless Walker wins by at least 6, this is a moral victory!
Nice try. Not buying it. · 7 minutes ago
Ricocheters: John Ellis isn't a member of the MSM. He's a first cousin of George W. Bush, and he's very Republican. He's not trying to manage expectations for the Left.
Now about his actual thesis: the recall in Wisconsin is a bit decoupled from the Presidential race. There are reports of many "Walker-Obama" voters in Wisconsin--Democrats who can be reliably counted on to pull the D lever, but who are sick of the nonsense in their state and want it over with. So I'm not sure that a 6 point win for Walker means big trouble for the president.
However, the New York Times opines that the recall may hurt Obama by energizing Republicans in a state the Obamabots are counting on. From their lips to God's ears.
Re: Already a Fascinating Week...
dogsbody
Ricocheters: John Ellis isn't a member of the MSM. He's a first cousin of George W. Bush, and he's very Republican. He's not trying to manage expectations for the Left.
Now about his actual thesis: the recall in Wisconsin is a bit decoupled from the Presidential race. There are reports of many "Walker-Obama" voters in Wisconsin--Democrats who can be reliably counted on to pull the D lever, but who are sick of the nonsense in their state and want it over with. So I'm not sure that a 6 point win for Walker means big trouble for the president.
However, the New York Times opines that the recall may hurt Obama by energizing Republicans in a state the Obamabots are counting on. From their lips to God's ears. · 2 minutes ago
I agree, dogsbody. But that's still awful news for Obama. Ticket-splitters will be his undoing.
Sep '10
Re: Already a Fascinating Week...
Rob Long
But that's still awful news for Obama. Ticket-splitters will be his undoing. · 8 minutes ago
Good point! If enough Democrats split tickets away from Obama in November, Romney will win.
Personally, I'm hoping that Anna Wintour makes an ad directed at those Wisconsin dairy farmers.
Jan '11
Re: Already a Fascinating Week...
I understand that a "mild" Walker win won't prove that there's a dramatic flight from Obama in November. Maybe a huge win by Walker will show that Obama's really in trouble.
But again, that becomes a self-reinforcing prophecy.
It reminds me of Pat Sajak's Ricochet story last week about the damage the networks caused when they called the 2000 Florida election before the Panhandle had finished voting. People who heard the reports likely figured that their votes didn't matter (they'd been told the election was already over), so they didn't bother to vote.
If Walker wins by 4%, it may not prove that Obama's in trouble, true. But ... if Walker's victory is deemed "disappointing," we all know it will be used as "evidence" for the converse ... they'll say that it shows Obama is still strong.
---
They'll sell it to Wisconsin as "resistance is futile."
Sep '10
Re: Already a Fascinating Week...
There will also be a hugely important Wisconsin race for an open US Senate seat in November that needs to be factored into the calculation. The Democrats will be running a radical leftist US Representative from Madison, and the Republicans will either have RINO squish (but massively popular) ex Governor Tommy Thompson, or one of three more conservative candidates. That GOP primary race has been largely ignored to date with all the recall hype.
Sep '11
Re: Already a Fascinating Week...
dogsbody
Ricocheters: John Ellis isn't a member of the MSM. He's a first cousin of George W. Bush, and he's very Republican. He's not trying to manage expectations for the Left.
I'm thrilled that he's Dubya's first cousin. But he also worked in the elections unit of NBC News during the 2000 presidential election.
I haven't worked with the elections unit of NBC. I have worked with the elections unit of ABC. Regardless of who he's cousins with, his membership in Skull & Bones at Yale, or whether he's the real-life T. Coddington van Vorhees, he's MSM.
And no, I'm still not buying it.
Re: Already a Fascinating Week...
Here's one view from the mostly ignorant, late-to-the-party, MSM: If Walker wins, even by one vote, its a huge, huge deal. He has been both careful in the way he crafted his measure (compared to, perhaps, his counterparts in Ohio) and shrewd about going on the offensive early and staying there. And by charging at his critics all year, he has seized an opportunity with both hands and helped put a state that hasn't gone bluesince 1984 up for grabs this fall. That's a huge-r deal.
Apr '11
Re: Already a Fascinating Week...
I think Ellis had that right. It's a huge deal if he wins, and it's a separate huge deal if he wins by a big margin. Ellis didn't suggest that an even bigger transition might happen in November, but we won't have news about that tomorrow. What will happen if there's a decent margin is that we'll have an easier time in a dozen other states in November.
Re: Already a Fascinating Week...
Just a note to say howdy, Mike. It's marvelous to have you with us. (And I'm with you: A Walker win would be huge for Wisconsin and huge-r for the country.)
Re: Already a Fascinating Week...
Of course, I meant "red" when I wrote "blue." Wisconsin hasn't gone Republican since 1984. Sigh. Another sign of hopeless MSM behavior. Apologies to all. (And thanks, Peter, for the chance to try and hold my own here. )
Mar '12
Re: Already a Fascinating Week...
Welcome to Ricochet, Michael. Nice to have you join us.
Dec '10
Re: Already a Fascinating Week...
If Walker does manage to win, it will be just barely better than the resignation of Palin, as some form of recovery from the walloping administered to decent public servants. For example, from Time magazine:
Parallels to the recent popular uprising in Egypt were apparently irresistible; a website popped up comparing Walker to ousted Egyptian autocrat Hosni Mubarak, and Washington Post columnist Harold Meyerson dubbed Walker “the cheesehead pharaoh of the Middle West.”
Love that third person, attributed to some website and a newspaper as cover, but we all get what the magazine's point of view was, as it attempted to sway public opinion in dentist's waiting rooms across the country. I get why Time has a topical piece about Scott Walker this week, playing him up as "The Survivor", but I also get that part of what he has had to survive is Time magazine.
Guess what? There are other Americans that realize this, as well. Probably even in Wisconsin.
Jul '10
Re: Already a Fascinating Week...
Mark Belling Fan, how about a Member post on that topic?
You in Austin already?
Nov '11
Re: Already a Fascinating Week...
A big Walker win portends Wisconsin going red in November. As a matter of electoral math, it will be extremely difficult for Obama to win in November without winning Wisconsin.
A Walker win, by whatever margin, will affect expectations among people with money to spend on presidential politics, making it easier for Romney to fund his campaign and harder for Obama.
Moreover, Obama does not want to have to put much money into states like Wisconsin.
On the ground in Wisconsin, ordinary people are beginning to think that Walker's reforms really have worked and that a large majority of Wisconsin citizens have benefited and will continue to benefit from those reforms.
In other words, Wisconsin citizenry might be on a path toward concluding that cutting public union power was not just a good emergency measure, but was a good idea for everyday use, and if they reach that conclusion, the state's political color-change could become equally permanent.
Nov '11
Re: Already a Fascinating Week...
Yeah, what's up with Bubba so publicly trashing Obama's vulture-capitalist meme, when he said of Romney:
We learned long ago that Clinton chooses words precisely for very particular reasons. For example, he could truthfully say he "did not have sexual relations with that woman," because the operative legal definition of "sexual relations" did not include felatio. (Pardon me for alluding to that sad tale, but it helps illuminate my question.) Clinton is a master rhetorician, an international grandmaster rhetorician. He knows how to use words to accomplish his aims.
Since Clinton never says anything accidently, even when he seems to be speaking casually, I have to think Clinton said what he said about Romney because he intended some very particular effect. What might that be?
Edited on June 5, 2012 at 3:26amOct '10
Re: Already a Fascinating Week...
The only point that I agree with the Ellis article on is that if Walker loses, it hurts Romney and the Republican chances in November 2012. A Walker win by any percentage is very positive for Romney.
The MSM will try to spin it positively if Barrett loses, but I would take several positives from a Walker win. Romney can tap into a highly organized grass roots infrastructure for his campaign. Voter participation in the election is estimated at 60%. It illustrates that you can successfully talk to voters as adults, and draw a dividing line between public sector unions and private sector unions and their effect on the taxpayer that is understandable to the average voter. After all, the first public sector union was created in Wisconsin in the 1930s. In addition, President Obama will have to spend more time and money in states like Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota detracting from his efforts elsewhere. A Scott Walker victory by any percentage is a very big deal.