All This Over 407,000 Votes?
I get that this election was particularly problematic and that the last half dozen or so presidential elections have been close. But Jim Geraghty puts it well:
On Wednesday, I added up Obama’s margin in a few key states, to get a sense of just how agonizingly short the Romney campaign finished from 270 electoral votes.
Some of those straggling precincts have reported, and so here is an updated set of numbers, according to the results this morning on the New York Times’ results map:
Florida: 73,858
Ohio: 103,481
Virginia: 115,910
Colorado: 113,099
Those four states, with a collective margin of, 406,348 for Obama, add up to 69 electoral votes. Had Romney won 407,000 or so additional votes in the right proportion in those states, he would have 275 electoral votes.
Obviously there's plenty of soul-searching and blame-giving to go through, but as we hear what the liberal media think about what the right needs to do to improve (how generous of them -- really), could we keep these figures in mind?
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Apr '11
Re: All This Over 407,000 Votes?
Isn't it interesting that the Democrats and the Beltway Republicans both have the same advice for us. ¿Por qué?
Apr '11
Re: All This Over 407,000 Votes?
Thanks for answering the question I asked last week, and got no comments on.
http://ricochet.com/member-feed/The-Electoral-College-was-actually-quite-close
Jul '12
Re: All This Over 407,000 Votes?
I've changed my view of this election on the basis of this information. We still have nobody but ourselves to blame for lack of turnout, but if just about 203,000 people had switched their votes we'd be singing a very different tune right now.
And shame on anybody who didn't vote for Romney who did vote for George W. Bush or McCain.
Mar '11
Re: All This Over 407,000 Votes?
If all Republicans have to offer in 2016 is 408,000 more voters in 4 states we are doomed.
May '10
Re: All This Over 407,000 Votes?
I don't know. I mean, I hate it. But, at the same time, I hardly blame them.
I spoke with the owner of the small business the other day. His reaction to the election was "everything is run by the oil companies and the banks. Nothing we do is gonna change that."
It made me realize how deeply alienated from the establishment elites so many "normal Americans" feel. Romney came across as one more of the monied elites.
We really need a more populist message, including a "get back to basics": It's not just about jobs, it's about getting power out of DC and back to the people. It's about recovering our culture, our way of life.
We won't succeed unless we link it all with moral decay.
Edited on November 12, 2012 at 6:00pmNov '12
Re: All This Over 407,000 Votes?
Indeed. Then there's this:
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2012/11/12/breaking-romney-got-zero-votes-59-philadelphia-voting-divisions-zero
May '12
Re: All This Over 407,000 Votes?
At the risk of self aggrandizement, I am attaching a link to my most recent Post.
http://ricochet.com/member-feed/2016-It-s-Morning-in-America-And-We-ve-Been-Drinking-Paint-Thinner/%28comment%29/527631#comment-527631
Sep '10
Re: All This Over 407,000 Votes?
It certainly is. But, remember, there's no Ruling Class.
Jan '11
Re: All This Over 407,000 Votes?
Two weeks ago: Obama was president, the Democrats run the Senate but without a super-majority, and the Republicans run the House but without a super-majority.
Today: Obama is president, the Democrats run the Senate but without a super-majority, and the Republicans run the House but without a super-majority.
Note that in 2010, when the current alignment was achieved by Republicans, it was called a "shellacking."
And yet, Thomas Edsall proclaims victory in the culture war for liberals. Jonathan Chait proclaims that Obama won the class warfare. Plenty of Republicans are saying that we have to abandon social issues and cave on every policy.
Deep breaths, people ... deep, cleansing breaths... there there ... this will pass ...
Edited on November 12, 2012 at 6:15pmOct '11
Re: All This Over 407,000 Votes?
We might start learning Soviet chants !
Is it just me but does the left not only was planning on winning, but was planning the post election psychological beat up of the right to cause preemptive surrendering of everything from social cons to immigration ?
Nov '12
Re: All This Over 407,000 Votes?
As has been pointed out on NRO, Jim Geraghty's figures paint an interesting picture but they need to be put in the context of vote totals, counties and state-wide percentages. It could very well be the case that some of those vote deltas would actually be outside a reasonable margin one could capture.
We're stuck with this Electoral College voting system whether we like it or not. I for one wish states would start apportioning electors based on winner-takes-all in individual legislative districts as opposed to state-wide. Then, at least, rural and suburban voters wouldn't feel trapped and dictated to by big city political machines. Think about it for a minute, all of Illinois (I have a friend who lives in rural southern IL) is completely dominated by Clark County (aka, Chicago)....how is that at all fair?
Jun '11
Re: All This Over 407,000 Votes?
katievs
I don't know. I mean, I hate it. But, at the same time, I hardly blame them.
I spoke with the owner of the small business the other day. His reaction to the election was "everything is run by the oil companies and the banks. Nothing we do is gonna change that."
It made me realize how deeply alienated from the establishment elites so many "normal Americans" feel. Romney came across as one more of the monied elites.
Katie, part of the reason for this is that supposedly respectable people such as the POTUS and the senator-elect from the People's Republic of Massachusetts spent so many hundreds of millions of dollars selling the "alienation" message.
With all due respect to the business owner you spoke with, his conclusion is utter nonsense and is evocative of Senator-Elect Fauxcahontas' "system is rigged" garbage.
I have friends and family members who latch on to this same simplistic fatalism. It's weird how easily manipulated people are by this divisive, destructive message.
Apr '11
Re: All This Over 407,000 Votes?
katievs
We really need a more populist message, including a "get back to basics": It's not just about jobs, it's about getting power out of DC and back to the people. It's about recovering our culture, our way of life.
We won't succeed unless we link it all with moral decay. · 19 minutes ago
Edited 17 minutes ago
I had a very deep discussion along these lines with my liberal brother.
He indicated to be that linking liberalism with moral decay creates a overwhelming backlash. One part of the culture war that has definitely been lost is re the taboo on 'judgmentalism'. He explicity confirmed what I had long suspected: "You conservatives are trying to make me feel guilty for my life choices." . . .
He also convinced me that the feeling that real progress has been made is very strong, and going back to basics is going backwards. You can always say, "He's just wrong, and here's why." But that kind of argument has no potential for persuasion. And in the worst case, it is open to charges of racism.
Edited on November 12, 2012 at 6:30pmJul '12
Re: All This Over 407,000 Votes?
Colin B Lane
Katie, part of the reason for this is that supposedly respectable people such as the POTUS and the senator-elect from the People's Republic of Massachusetts spent so many hundreds of millions of dollars selling the "alienation" message.
With all due respect to the business owner you spoke with, his conclusion is utter nonsense and is evocative of Senator-Elect Fauxcahontas' "system is rigged" garbage.
I have friends and family members who latch on to this same simplistic fatalism. It's weird how easily manipulated people are by this divisive, destructive message. · 4 minutes ago
I'm sorry Katie, but half of people are below average. People who get suckered in by that sort of rhetoric inhabit the bottom half. That cuts across all demographic groups and political parties. If there are potential Republican voters out there who sat at home because "Shadowy Forces in Smoke-filled Rooms" control everything, they need to get their heads examined.
Jun '11
Re: All This Over 407,000 Votes?
Majestyk
Colin B Lane
Katie, part of the reason for this is that supposedly respectable people such as the POTUS and the senator-elect from the People's Republic of Massachusetts spent so many hundreds of millions of dollars selling the "alienation" message.
With all due respect to the business owner you spoke with, his conclusion is utter nonsense and is evocative of Senator-Elect Fauxcahontas' "system is rigged" garbage.
I have friends and family members who latch on to this same simplistic fatalism. It's weird how easily manipulated people are by this divisive, destructive message.
I'm sorry Katie, but half of people are below average. People who get suckered in by that sort of rhetoric inhabit the bottom half. That cuts across all demographic groups and political parties. If there are potential Republican voters out there who sat at home because "Shadowy Forces in Smoke-filled Rooms" control everything, they need to get their heads examined. ·
They'll first need to have their heads extracted from where they are lodged.
Oct '11
Re: All This Over 407,000 Votes?
So do nothing and guarantee that nothing changes? We should at least try. We might fail, but no one succeeds by sitting on their butts complaining about how nothing gets better.
May '10
Re: All This Over 407,000 Votes?
Colin B Lane
I have friends and family members who latch on to this same simplistic fatalism. It's weird how easily manipulated people are by this divisive, destructive message. ·
I know it's nonsense. But it's also not nonsense, if you follow me. The fatalism is bad. Not to distinguish between Romney and Obama is bad. (That, too I blame on the erosion of true education, the propagandist in the MsM, and on the debauchery of the "entertainment industry.")
But what's also bad is the Republicans not appealing to this deep sense of alienation among large swathes of the public. Unless we give cogent explanations what's gone wrong and how it might be addressed--not just on the economic front, but even more on the moral front--we'll keep losing.
Lots and lots of decent people are feeling hopeless and helpless to stop the decline. If they say anything about morality, they get tarred as bigots for their pains.
May '10
Re: All This Over 407,000 Votes?
HoosierDaddy
I had a very deep discussion along these lines with my liberal brother.
He indicated to be that linking liberalism with moral decay creates a overwhelming backlash. One part of the culture war that has definitely been lost is re the taboo on 'judgmentalism'. He explicity confirmed what I had long suspected: "You conservatives are trying to make me feel guilty for my life choices." . . .
He also convinced me that the feeling that real progress has been made is very strong, and going back to basics is going backwards. You can always say, "He's just wrong, and here's why." But that kind of argument has no potential for persuasion. And in the worst case, it is open to charges of racism.
It seems to me you're making my point. The left is winning through erosion of the moral foundations of the civil society. If we don't fight on that front, we're doomed.
Mar '11
Re: All This Over 407,000 Votes?
I think this is an important point. Looking at the states on Geraghty's list, Romney lost Colorado by 5 points - that's big for a swing state. He also lost Virginia by 3.
Also, let's not fool ourselves: the Electoral College only survives in its current form as long as most elections deliver the popular vote winner into office. Had Romney garnered 204,000 more votes in these 4 states and won, Obama would have still lost with a higher margin of the popular vote than Al Gore had. Two such results in 12 years would probably guarantee that the horribly flawed National Popular Vote project became reality.
May '10
Re: All This Over 407,000 Votes?
Majestyk
I'm sorry Katie, but half of people are below average. People who get suckered in by that sort of rhetoric inhabit the bottom half. That cuts across all demographic groups and political parties. If there are potential Republican voters out there who sat at home because "Shadowy Forces in Smoke-filled Rooms" control everything, they need to get their heads examined. · 6 minutes ago
I'm not a genius, but I'm not below average, and I think they have a totally valid point. It's not a few conspirators in a smoke-filled back room. But it is a system. A complex. And it's not crazy for people to think that no matter who gets in office, the Leviathan keeps growing and getting more powerful, while the individual is less and less able to govern his own affairs.
Also, keep in mind: the bottom half vote too. Then might not be able to grasp the Laffer curve, but they know they're being lied to and played and manipulated by the media and by politicians.
Edited on November 12, 2012 at 6:48pm