Advice to Romney: Keep Calm and Carry On
Yesterday's Gallup poll distinguished Rick Perry as the clear leader among GOP presidential hopefuls, providing him with a comfortable 12 point lead over Mitt Romney. Based on that poll, and a host of others--Rasmussen, PPP, YouGov--just like it, it would appear that Romney is in serious trouble. But Nate Silver on his inimitable FiveThirtyEight blog lists four reasons why Romney should for now remain calm and keep his powder dry.
First, with these shiny new numbers will come higher expectations for Mr. Perry, particularly during the three Republican debates that will be held in September.
Second, Mr. Romney should have a fair amount of breathing room since the Republican field is heavily tilted toward very conservative candidates like Mr. Perry. Were Rudolph W. Giuliani or Chris Christie to enter the race, Mr. Romney might face a bit more pressure, as he would if Jon M. Huntsman Jr. were somehow to surge. Still, the conservative part of the Republican field is far more crowded, and will be even more so if Sarah Palin runs.
Third, Republican elites have not given Mr. Perry a warm welcome. Of course, the same can be said for Mr. Romney; that Republicans have been casting about for a candidate like Paul Ryan or Mr. Christie reflects poorly on him as well as Mr. Perry. But as Barack Obama looks more and more vulnerable, Republicans may begin to prioritize electability over ideological purity.
Finally, although national polls at this stage have a fair amount of predictive power, they are hardly foolproof. At this point in 2007, Rudy Giuliani had about 29 percent of the Republican vote, about where Mr. Perry is now.
At this point in the game, my own bias tilts toward Perry. But I find that the fourth point should give Romney at least some comfort. I'd also add that since Perry officially joined the fray precisely twelve days ago, MSM coverage on the race has very much zeroed in on Perry's perceived flaws and vulnerabilities. Whether this is because he's feared as the biggest threat to Obama's reelection efforts by the toadies in the media, or because all of the other candidates' foibles have already been exhaustively exploited, this is at least temporary (and I'd guess long term) good news for Romney who can fly under the media radar for a while, unmolested.
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Jul '11
Re: Advice to Romney: Keep Calm and Carry On
Romney is much more vulnerable than Nate Silver's piece implies (see Seth Mandel's convincing critique of Silver's analysis over at Contentions). For example, Guiliani's standing in the polls in 2007 should give no comfort to Romney - as the past two weeks show, Perry is no Guiliani when it comes to campaigning: he's skilled, disciplined, and most importantly, in tune with his own base. It's unlikely he'll be too cute by half and hand pick battlegrounds (e.g., Florida) that won't matter after the early contests. He'll compete everywhere and be competitive everywhere. The nomination is his to lose - Romney can only hope for a gaffe of titanic proportions or some unforeseen skeleton to find its way out of Perry's closet.
May '11
Re: Advice to Romney: Keep Calm and Carry On
"Third, Republican elites have not given Mr. Perry a warm welcome."
Just who are these Republican elites? Name names please.
They are obviously not Tea Partiers.
Aren't they the same elites who gave us John McCain, George W. Bush (couldn't veto a spending bill), Bob Dole and fought against Reagan forcing him to carry George H.W. Bush?
The judgement of these elites seems to be questionable.
Sep '10
Re: Advice to Romney: Keep Calm and Carry On
Clearly the Kinky Friedman endorsement of Perry has had an effect but I think it is far to soon call anyone a front runner. I fear that Perry could win the battle and lose the war although I fear the same of Romney so we need this contest
May '10
Re: Advice to Romney: Keep Calm and Carry On
On a policy basis I would prefer Perry. But there is a slick underlay there to Perry that makes me uncomfortable. I have a feeling that we will be encountering some Clinton-level scandal stuff before long that will have legs.
As I said to my baby brudder, GW Bush to Perry is like Eisenhower to LBJ (except for the policy matters). Perry reminds me a lot more of Tom Delay- in a bunch of respects- than of Paul Ryan.
Jul '11
Re: Advice to Romney: Keep Calm and Carry On
Romney is to the Republicans what Dick Gephardt was to the Democrats: a perennial seeker of a higher office he can never attain. He is destined to be little more than a footnote in history.
Dec '10
Re: Advice to Romney: Keep Calm and Carry On
This is a fantastic time to be a Republican. As I mentioned to Cobalt Blue earlier today, this is the first chance we've had in a long time to pick the best candidate and not just the most electable candidate. Electability is still in there, but it has moved down a peg or two on importance. If Romney wants the nomination he will have to earn it.
May '10
Re: Advice to Romney: Keep Calm and Carry On
Diane Ellis, Ed.
That seems backwards to me. If Obama is more vulnerable, shouldn't Republicans believe they have more freedom to nominate somebody who is less "electable" and more ideological?
Oct '10
Re: Advice to Romney: Keep Calm and Carry On
my advice to romney is to not attack perry. let him self implode. maybe in the debates he will do that.
Jun '10
Re: Advice to Romney: Keep Calm and Carry On
Romney simply doesn't satisfy his base. This one point alone goes a long way in explaining Perry's sudden popularity. Keep in mind that the Republican base is much more active and much more ideological than the electorate at large. Despite Romney's machine and all his cash the base will not accept another John McCain. It's going to be Rick Perry warts and all.
May '10
Re: Advice to Romney: Keep Calm and Carry On
I agree about the activist base. That is not the entirety of the base, just the loud members. Read Henry Olson's piece on that. Right now the firebrands are going for flavor-of-the-week, getting wildly enthusiastic about every possibility of someone who will be snarky and sassy toward Obama. That's why we see pleading for Christie without any vetting of his views, strong support for mouthy and shallow mediocrities like Bachmann, etc.
Fun to watch, but not particularly electability-smart, in my view.
I sure wish we could talk Jeb into running. Smart, record of achievement, nice, likable, articulate, speaks well off-the-cuff, big swing-state popular, appeals to Latinos, what's not to like?
May '10
Re: Advice to Romney: Keep Calm and Carry On
Duane Oyen
I sure wish we could talk Jeb into running. Smart, record of achievement, nice, likable, articulate, speaks well off-the-cuff, big swing-state popular, appeals to Latinos, what's not to like? · Aug 26 at 11:25am
Maybe he should take his wife's last name.
May '10
Re: Advice to Romney: Keep Calm and Carry On
Mark Wilson
Duane Oyen
I sure wish we could talk Jeb into running. Smart, record of achievement, nice, likable, articulate, speaks well off-the-cuff, big swing-state popular, appeals to Latinos, what's not to like? · Aug 26 at 11:25am
Maybe he should take his wife's last name. · Aug 26 at 1:49pm
That would be a great idea. Brings in a whole new set of supporters, as well.