A special post for Duane Oyen
Duane, Ricochet's editors pointed out your post on Ricochet's Facebook page asking for my reaction to these op-eds about Turkey. Here's my take, for now. I just wrote this piece, Murky in Turkey, for City Journal.
And I've just sent a longer piece about the Turkish-Brazilian nuclear deal with Iran to World Affairs Journal, which should be published in their next issue. I guess the world will have to wait for my views about that until they run it.
I broadly agree with the editorialists mentioned on Powerline: something significant and ominous is happening here. I would stress two things in addition, though. The first, as I say in my City Journal piece, is how little we understand about what, precisely, is going on.
I want to know exactly what the relationship is between the AKP and the İHH. (It is not necessarily as warm as many reports are suggesting; for all we know the İHH may have double-crossed Erdoğan after assuring him there would be no unpleasantness on that boat). I want to know exactly how the decision to allow the Mavi Marmara to sail was made: Was it made at the Cabinet level? Was there dissent? Who were the dissenters? Why, I wonder, has Turkish President Abdullah Gül been silent to the point of invisibility in the aftermath of the event? What does the military--which has also been silent to the point of near-invisibility--make of this?
I want to know just what's going on between the AKP and Fethullah Gülen: Were they aware that he planned to criticize the İHH? Did they encourage him to do so, and if so, why? I want to know why the Turkish media, which ordinarily does offer a wide spectrum of opinions, has been so remarkably monolithic about this: Is it really because they're all just feckless, neo-Islamist idiots? Or is something else going on--have the dissenters been silenced, and if so, how? (The easy answer is that they've been silenced through financial consolidation, intimidation and harassment, which has been going on for some time, but why is it suddenly working so well? This was not an entirely monolithic and compliant press before this incident.)
I want to know why, despite all of this, no one here is raising the possibility of severing Turkish-Israeli military cooperation, even though the government is intimating that the Israelis are mixed up with the PKK. Doesn't it seem strange to you that a government that is on the one hand accusing Israel of cooperating with its greatest (real) enemy is planning to continue to rely on Israel to modernize its tanks and furnish its drones?
I want to know what the Iranians make of all of this: Doesn't it seem to you they've been awfully quiet, all things considered?
I'm not trying to spin conspiracy theories here; quite the opposite. I'd like to encourage a bit of epistemological modesty. There is obviously a lot we don't understand. Someone in the West may know the answers to these questions, but they're not being reported.
Second, the reporting I'm seeing is missing a lot of details that strike me as important. For example, I wonder if people realize that the protests here are not that big, and not that widespread, and that moreover they're not spontaneous: They're being organized by the AKP, which is frantically sending text messages to its supporters inviting them and urging them to join. I'm not seeing much reporting that suggests the feeling I'm getting from speaking to ordinary people here, which is that above all they're confused. I'm looking for reliable opinion polls--how is the AKP polling now? How is Kılıçdaroğlu polling? But I haven't seen them yet.
Informally, I'm seeing signs of a backlash, as in this comment, posted by a Facebook acquaintance:
we are Only Turk not arab or etc..only line connect us is religion, we have 5000 years history in this geograpy but muslim since 1300 years so we are 1st turk then muslim we are just turk different then them different blood i just ashamed from the ones inside us who thinks like radical arabic way, if ATATURK was still alive i bet he would cut pff all radical muslim turks head's again.
There are a million important things to understand about this comment and others like it, culturally and historically, but I'm not seeing the kind of analysis in the Western media that would help readers make sense of it.
The reporting strikes me as a bit superficial, basically. I don't disagree with the overall message--that something very ominous is happening--but I wish it went a bit deeper. Given the significance of what's happening here, it should.
I'm obviously going to do my best to find out the answers to these questions (and to keep raising them). I'll let you know if I have any luck.
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May '10
Re: A special post for Duane Oyen
Claire, as an American who has never been to Turkey, I can't help but wonder if this is somehow related to the brief period a couple months ago when Erdogan was arresting dozens of Turkish military officials and there was concern that the military would launch a coup. A coup didn't materialize. I do remember some reportage from months before that alleging Israeli involvement in the Ergenekon conspiracy. Perhaps the peace flotilla is payback of some kind? Thoughts?
Re: A special post for Duane Oyen
Here's what I want to know: how do you get those curvy and circle-y things to appear about the Turkish letters? And how do you pronounce that "g" with the upside-down yarmulke on it?
May '10
Re: A special post for Duane Oyen
It's 2am, I'm going to bed, I've just read that "something very ominous is happening," and I really needed a laugh. Thanks.
Re: A special post for Duane Oyen
Scott, that's my job.
May '10
Re: A special post for Duane Oyen
Long time listener, first time poster...
Wow! What an amazing information supertreat it was to hear the Berlinski portion of the show. Please bring her back soon. Can't wait to get over to City Journal and learn more.The last time I was steeped in this much Turkey talk I was sitting on my parents Ottoman listning to They Might Be Giants, Istanbul (Not Constantinople).
By far, this was my favorite Steyn-free episode yet. I have to admit, I was partially burning my breakfast for some portions of the show. Where is Mark on cruise exactly? Safe trip wherever it may be to Mr. Steyn from an, er... "follower?". With Rome out of the "mare nostrum" business, be sure to give "peace" a wide berth. I only hope it's not so wide as to land in the Caribbean. Oy veh. In any case, I want to say a big thank you to everyone who makes the show and this site work!
One last thought, If anyone at Ricochet should happen to be speaking with Haley Barbour again soon. Please tell him never to mention the words "mare nostrum" within earshot of President Obama.
Re: A special post for Duane Oyen
Welcome, Twark Main! And thanks for the kind words about the Steyn-less podcast. Peter and I are sensitive souls. We know that without Mark it's sort of like Sinatra and Sammy Davis, Jr. without....Liza Minnelli.
And we also agree: Claire is fantastic. If and when Ricochet is rich, we'll pay for her to move anywhere on the planet (with the cats) as long as she keeps posting and contributing.
And we have no idea where Mark is, exactly. At sea, we're told. Which I assume doesn't include on the deck of a blockade-running flotilla on its way to Gaza.
May '10
Re: A special post for Duane Oyen
Thanks for the information. After reading the City Journal piece, I have only one question- is it likely that Erdogan was blind-sided and unaware that the 50 commando mercenaries had boarded the boat in what was apparently a separate operation? That might explain a bit of this.
http://www.jpost.com/Israel/Article.aspx?id=177618
Re: A special post for Duane Oyen
Claire, your Facebook friend got me thinking. By my fuzzy algebra, a nation with 5000 years of history, such as Turkey, sees the founding of Islam a mere 1300 years ago in roughly the same aspect as a modern American views the events of the 1950s. Soooo, is he saying -- and would you agree -- that this particular Turk's understanding of Islam is akin to our view of Scientology (born approximately 1952)?
May '10
Re: A special post for Duane Oyen
Quoting Murky in Turkey..."The media are certainly playing a role in this conflict, but in the end the power is, as it always has been, with those who control the militaries—and they’re saying little."
Claire, who really controls the Turkish military? I thought it was autonomous to the elected government leadership and, possibly, even more powerful since it is regarded as the guardian of secularism. But, with the AKP entrenched in so many aspects of the government, including using the judicial system as a tool to punish dissenters and using tactics like Ergenekon to create severe intimidation to any others...I question (with fear) the fortitude of the military leaders to honor their oath.
In his defense of Sudan’s al-Bashir, Erdogan said, “A Muslim can never commit genocide”. Rob, please make me laugh, too.
May '10
Re: A special post for Duane Oyen
Ursula Hennessey: Claire, your Facebook friend got me thinking. By my fuzzy algebra, a nation with 5000 years of history, such as Turkey, sees the founding of Islam a mere 1300 years ago in roughly the same aspect as a modern American views the events of the 1950s. Soooo, is he saying -- and would you agree -- that this particular Turk's understanding of Islam is akin to our view of Scientology (born approximately 1952)? · Jun 7 at 5:17pm
Ursula, I can laugh at that because we're not 99.8% Scientologists! Thank Heaven!!