A Winner Last Night As Yet Unmentioned
There was a winner last night whom no one on Ricochet has yet mentioned. I have in mind Hillary Rodham Clinton. In his press conference today, President Obama denied that the “shellacking” his party received had anything to do with his policies, but no one – apart, perhaps, from Chris Matthews, whose leg may still be tingling – believes anything of the sort: least of all, Mrs. Clinton and her canny, if wayward, consort.
As I have argued in more detail elsewhere, there are bound to be recriminations within the Democratic Party, and President Obama is apt to draw primary opposition in 2012 from both the left and the right in his party; Hillary can hardly afford to stay out, and I doubt that she will be genuinely reluctant to do so.
Here is what I predict. Sometime within the next few months, Barack Obama’s Secretary of State will find it necessary to resign her post over a matter of principle – one involving, say, the Obama administration’s policy with regard to Israel. A month or so later – under pressure, of course, from Democrats deeply worried about the future of her party, Mrs. Clinton will find herself "forced" to declare her candidacy for the Presidency of the United States.
What do you think? And who else will enter the fray?
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May '10
Re: A Winner Last Night As Yet Unmentioned
Professor, you're going to have to duke it out with Rob for credit on this one when it come to pass. Maybe the INTERNS can go through past podcasts and posts and document the First Mention. Regardless, it seems we are in fact on step closer -- if only Madame Secretary can keep her underlings off Twitter in the meantime.
Oct '10
Re: A Winner Last Night As Yet Unmentioned
An inplausible but alternative scenario would be Obama finding some way to make a face saving withdrawl, leaving Billary to ride in and save us all from those evil teabagging conservatives.
Jul '10
Re: A Winner Last Night As Yet Unmentioned
That is the best brief description of Bill Clinton ever.
Re: A Winner Last Night As Yet Unmentioned
Yeah, all too plausible. If it happens, we make that birthday Tweet to Ahmadinejad trend all day, every day, until it goes away.
Oct '10
Re: A Winner Last Night As Yet Unmentioned
I also am going on record as being in full agreement with your prediction as the 2nd...3rd....ah, am I fourth person to be so prescient. Anyway, I think you're right and I plan to feel pretty smart for agreeing with you early on.
When Carville was so critical of Obama's handling of the oil spill, the only reasonable explanation seemed to be that he was preparing the way for Hillary. I think it's inevitable that she will run and your scenario sounds very plausible.
May '10
Re: A Winner Last Night As Yet Unmentioned
Yes, of course she will challenge. How many of those defeated old-line Democrats, or the humiliated state party chairmen, are getting their first consolation call from a Clinton? Lots of commiseration and perhaps an occasional "I told ya so" between old political friends. I'm sure the old Clinton network is buzzing these days.
Jul '10
Re: A Winner Last Night As Yet Unmentioned
Paul, great point. Especially the one about resigning over Israel. As the former Senator from NY, that note is in perfect pitch.
The question is this: How will the MSM play it?
They were firmly in the Obama camp during the primaries.
What would make them call off the dogs in this case?
Re: A Winner Last Night As Yet Unmentioned
Drudge has been hilarious in tracking Hillary's whereabouts during the runup to yesterday's Dem debacle. Gotta love the juxtaposition of Hillary at a "women's empowerment event" in New Guinea while Barack is being shellacked.
Sep '10
Re: A Winner Last Night As Yet Unmentioned
Somewhere I mentioned this last night. I'm searching 883 pages of transcript to prove it.
Jul '10
Re: A Winner Last Night As Yet Unmentioned
The belief that she could win and he can't.
Aug '10
Re: A Winner Last Night As Yet Unmentioned
Won't happen. Remember, the Dems are still the party of hardcore identity politics. And in that game, the only thing worse than running against a woman is running against a black man.
The only possible way she could unseat him is by running against him from the left; but for all their cries about how Obama caved on the public option, the left knows he's still the most liberal President we've ever had. Hillary's base may still be strong, but they're not the kind of impractical, radically lefty dreamers that would sincerely believe a more liberal candidate is possible.
I suppose she could copy her husband and tack hard to the center, trying to split the GOP vote and capture independents in the general. But she'd never survive the Democrat primary or the stigma of party traitor.
Nail in the coffin: when is the last time a primary challenger actually managed to take his party's nomination away from a sitting President?
Nov '10
Re: A Winner Last Night As Yet Unmentioned
For the last few days Rush Limbaugh has been saying that Hillary will benefit if the Democrats lose big in the election. Before the election he suggested that Hillary supporters who are still angry over 2008 could help her by voting Republican this time. The bigger the fall of Obama in 2010 the better for her candidacy in 2012.
Aug '10
Re: A Winner Last Night As Yet Unmentioned
Did Obama say the party took a shellacking or that HE did- I thought it was the latter, which would fit in with his narcissism- now who else in his party thinks they were put on earth to lead America?I believe she will go for it-2016 is just too far away for her to take the risk.
Oct '10
Re: A Winner Last Night As Yet Unmentioned
I think you're right. A contested second term from within the party strikes me as improbable. The Clintons are better at silent but deadly rather than a public stink. I don't think a primary campaign is likely, but anything could happen at the convention.
Edited on Nov 3, 2010 at 5:34pmRe: A Winner Last Night As Yet Unmentioned
Here is the problem for the Clintons. The polls show that 47% of Democrats want to see a primary challenge to Obama. Someone will take up the challenge, and that someone will win a primary or two -- and, even if Obama is renominated, that someone will be in front of Hillary in 2016, when she will be a bit long in the tooth.
Aug '10
Re: A Winner Last Night As Yet Unmentioned
Bayh v Daniels?
Re: A Winner Last Night As Yet Unmentioned
I've been in the Hillary in '12 camp for months, Paul. I think it's her last chance to run. And the Clintons love to run. Sure it's never happened before, but history can be made.
Jul '10
Re: A Winner Last Night As Yet Unmentioned
Jerry Brown will run.
Oct '10
Re: A Winner Last Night As Yet Unmentioned
I'll take your word for it, but 47% surprises me. Whose polls are those?
Oct '10
Re: A Winner Last Night As Yet Unmentioned
After his win yesterday, nothing would surprise me.