A Strong GOP Field
When sitting presidents run for reelection or sitting vice-presidents attempt to succeed their bosses, the opposition generally looks weak and disarrayed by comparison. Who can forget “Gary Hart and the Seven Dwarfs” in 1988? And, if the opposing field is large enough, it’s almost certain to include a loony or two who manage to diminish the stature of the group as a whole. A lot has been said about the relative merits of possible Republican candidates for the presidency in 2012, and Washington handicappers have been busy rating the strengths and weaknesses of each of them. And, of course, no matter what their strengths, it’s still a daunting challenge to overcome the trappings and power of the White House.
Putting that aside, however, I don’t think there’s much doubt that the Republicans have, by far, the stronger bench. Once past Barack Obama, who are the bright and rising stars for the Democrats? Does anyone seriously believe Joe Biden will be the heir apparent? Who is proposing ideas and exciting their base? Who is making a serious effort to outline a path for the future? If the President is reelected (and who really thinks that’s a lead-pipe cinch?), there will certainly be Democrats who will emerge and begin jockeying for position heading toward 2016, but they’ll suffer the handicap of trying to point out their virtues without appearing to undermine Obama.
For now, however, whatever the perceived weaknesses or handicaps of any potential GOP candidate, I think Republicans have far more reason to be bullish about their party’s future than do the Democrats. Maybe it’s just the good feelings brought on by Easter weekend, but it seems to me the serious ideas and the serious people are on our side.
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May '10
Re: A Strong GOP Field
Alan Grayson? Anthony Weiner?
Honestly, there are 12 "Generation X" members of the Senate, the next generation of leaders. Who has the most impressive cast?
Aug '10
Re: A Strong GOP Field
Good point. This could an example of the Chicago Way in action, backfiring on itself. Anyone with charisma, intelligence, and talent - assuming someone like that could be a Democrat - will be mercilessly torpedoed by the likes of Rahm Emmanuel, Andy Stern, Trumka, or a dozen other thugs hired by the Sophomore-in-Chief.
They would present a serious threat. Especially in contrast to the ineptitude, incompetence, implied malice, and depraved indifference we're seeing in the White House.
Jun '10
Re: A Strong GOP Field
Pat has obviously overlooked Anthony Weiner (and Alan Grayson could decide to run for president).
Seriously, Pat makes a good point. 21 senators are over 70--12 Democrats. Schumer is 60 and Durbin is 66 (neither would make a good candidate). The three youngest senators are all Republicans (Ayotte, Rubio, and Lee). Thune is 50 and Toomey is 49.
And that doesn't even take into account the governors. Can you think of a single Democratic governor who would be a credible candidate? I can think of several Republican governors.
When you think about it, their strongest candidate is Hilary, who is 63 now and will be 68 on election day 2016. Rubio or Ryan would eat her lunch.
Jun '10
Re: A Strong GOP Field
EJHill
Alan Grayson? Anthony Weiner?
Honestly, there are 12 "Generation X" members of the Senate, the next generation of leaders. Who has the most impressive cast? · Apr 22 at 10:17am
EJ: Curses, foiled again. You beat me to the best punch line: Weiner and Grayson.
May '10
Re: A Strong GOP Field
Consider also that of the House membership 18% of the Republican conference is 45 or younger. Only 9% of the Democratic conference is that young.
Mar '11
Re: A Strong GOP Field
Yes, but are the voters serious - i.e. have we gone past the tipping point, discussed recently by Secretary Rumsfeld? (great Podcast, BTW - then we had a serious Govt!)
If Mr Obama wins in 2012, then in 2016 we could have 8 years of Mrs Obama, and then 16 years of the kids... or a Constitutional amendment to remove the 2-term limit (could also remove the born-in-the-USA requirement, and age limit, while we are at it, just in case).
Edited on Apr 22, 2011 at 11:03amAug '10
Re: A Strong GOP Field
Increasingly, 2012 looks like Obama versus Obama to me, with Obama losing in a landslide.
The GOP is showing absolutely nothing to get excited about, but Obama is providing plenty for the electorate to be sick and tired of.
Oct '10
Re: A Strong GOP Field
2012 is worrisome, but I'm convinced the long view is all ours. Thaddeus McCotter, Aaron Schock, Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, and the others mentioned above. Then there are the youngsters just peaking over the political horizon like George Prescott Bush, Jeb Bush's oldest. I know, another Bush, but he seems promising. And don't forget Tricia Willoughby...
Aug '10
Re: A Strong GOP Field
yeah, but those are just the ones born in the country. after all, what country (planet?) did they find carter, clinton and obama were from ? southern georgia, arkansas and hawaii are all pretty off the beaten path
Dec '10
Re: A Strong GOP Field
Why are we talking about Congress-critters? Isn't everyone just sick to death of presidents and candidates coming from the Senate? I think the electorate has always had a bias favoring successful governors. Obama's presidency has done everything to reinforce the desirability of executive governing experience. The 2008 election was the perfect storm giving voters the choice between Senator Castor Oil and Senator Cookie. Any surprise they chose Cookie?
The GOP would be wise to get behind a serious, credible, accomplished governor. Ahem. Mitch Daniels. And then the GOP should send in special ops agents to find out where Russ Feingold is being held in isolation and set him free. He's only 58, doncha know? Run, Russ, Run!!
Edited on Apr 22, 2011 at 12:18pmOct '10
Re: A Strong GOP Field
Pat, you can't beat somebody with nobody.
Even worse, that many Republicans would even mention Donald Trump, putting him onto the polling radar screens, much less at or near the top (for now), gives one pause as to the reasoning ability of many of those on our side.
May '10
Re: A Strong GOP Field
It's about time somebody said it. Rob and Peter have been in drug-induced comas/depression of late.
Even to look at a more narrow view of the future, the 2012 election, the aptly-named Sean Trende examines the arguments for why Obama is unbeatable, and finds none persuasive. Remember, the Conventional Wisdom is reliable as a broken clock.
I'd say this one's ours to lose, but there're always Events.
Mar '11
Re: A Strong GOP Field
Great piece by Dr Krauthammer:
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/265428/2012-racing-form-charles-krauthammer
Sadly, he describes well our not-such-a-strong field for 2012. The 2016 field is much stronger, but by then we will be even further beyond the tipping point, and it may well be too late.
As usual, the only person I disagree with him about is Sarah Palin (I think she will run, dunno if she will win). He is also a little hard on Trump, which he probably realizes now after his phone call with him.
He is exactly right about drafting Paul Ryan - that would be a strong field!
I am starting to sound like a broken record - Ryan/Rubio 2012 :-)
Edited on Apr 22, 2011 at 11:40amJul '10
Re: A Strong GOP Field
I'm keeping an eye on Gillibrand and Maria Cantwell, but I haven't seen strong indication yet that either of them wants it. If Obama is re-elected, 2016 should be fairly easy for the GOP regardless of which Democrat manages to emerge and almost regardless of which of our fine candidates we choose (but I'll be pulling for Christie-Rubio personally...)
Nov '10
Re: A Strong GOP Field
Those who agree with Pat Sajak, and most of the previous commenters do, will of course be rushing over to the Intrade Prediction Markets to load up on 2012 Republican contracts. They’re selling for 37 cents. A Democrat contract will cost you 60 cents.
Any Republican candidate wins and you make 73 cents on an investment of 37 cents for roughly 18 months, and that’s on each contract you buy. You could buy thousands of them. Not a bad return on investment, especially right now.
In fact, you don’t have to wait for the election. These prices change and the rate of change will accelerate as the election approaches. You might be able to make money as Republican prospects in 2012 get better and better, as you believe they will.
So, how many of you will be putting your money where your hopeful wishes are?
May '10
Re: A Strong GOP Field
Andrew Cuomo? Not a lot of stars on the Dem side. Most come from tiny states or are older retreads like Jerry Brown.
Re: A Strong GOP Field
Pat, I agree with you. But I will have to say that the likely contenders in 2012 do not look strong. Romney? Gingrich? Huckabee? Barber? Losers, all. Pawlenty deserves attention, as does Governor Daniels. -- who seems to me to have unwittingly made himself vulnerable.
I, too, would be happier if Paul Ryan were drafted. He lacks executive experience but he knows what he is about, and he has demonstrated that he is a formidable debater.
Feb '11
Re: A Strong GOP Field
I have one problem with this analysis of the Democrat side: a few years ago, how many would have thought that a first term senator with absolutely no accomplishments whatsoever would be a viable candidate?
And, as hard as it is to say, Cuomo's actually not doing a bad job, so far, considering. Not only did he push some actual cuts and not raise taxes, but he got a budget passed on time for the first time I can remember. He could be a big potential problem in 2016.
There's really not anyone who excites me on our side yet.Bachman get bonus points from me for making the right people go off the deep end, but I prefer executive experience. Personally, I'm watching Daniels and Pawlenty.
Mar '11
Re: A Strong GOP Field
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/post/how_paul_ryan_became_president/2011/04/22/AFK11gOE_blog.html?wprss=right-turn
Last sentence: "April 22, 2011, will be known as the day that drafting Ryan in 2012 vaulted into the mainstream. And the posse? I hear it coming."
Where is the Ricochet posse?
Mar '11
Re: A Strong GOP Field
Sorry for the double post - one day I will figure this out.
Edited on Apr 22, 2011 at 3:17pm