A Sobering Thought for Conservatives Considering Sitting Out 2012
The ever-lucid Sean Trende has a fascinating and insightful piece up on RealClearPolitics today that wonders aloud whether the historical analogy most germane to Mitt Romney in 2012 is Richard Nixon in 1968. The whole thing deserves reading, but this passage -- buried towards the end -- considering whether Nixon's tenure sans Watergate would have been worth the candle for the GOP is a blow to the solar plexus:
For one thing, the most important thing a president does is choose Supreme Court justices. During Nixon’s term, he replaced two very liberal Justices: Earl Warren and Abe Fortas. He also shored up the conservative wing by replacing Justices Hugo Black and John Marshall Harlan. This sharply limited Warren court activism. Had Hubert Humphrey selected the next justices, his appointees certainly wouldn’t have included William Rehnquist or Lewis Powell, and a slew of critical 5-4 and 6-3 decisions from the 1970s would have gone the other direction.
Likewise, Antonin Scalia is 75 years old, as is Anthony Kennedy. If Obama were to replace either of them, the resulting court would probably be the second most liberal court in history, with only the 1962-1969 Warren court being further to the left. The next president would also have an excellent chance at replacing Ruth Ginsburg. While Romney’s choices may not be ideal conservatives -- though they certainly might be, depending on the makeup of the Senate -- they would almost certainly be different than Obama’s.
This is bracing stuff for conservatives disgusted with their current field of potential presidential candidates. And it's a reminder that staking out a position of philosophical purity, while it may feel like a moral victory, amounts to a practical defeat.
Regular readers know my skepticism of Romney well. But if he turns out to be the choice, it's a no-brainer. President Obama has already accrued influence that will far outlast his presidency with Obamacare (assuming that the Supreme Court doesn't overturn it). Do conservatives really want to expand his institutional footprint even further by setting up a situation in which he has the chance to midwife a new era of judicial progressivism on the highest court in the land? Assuming Trende's worst-case scenario, you're talking about a Supreme Court with six solidly liberal justices, five of whom will have decades on the court in front of them. I long for a conservative candidate as much as anybody ... but that's too high a price to pay for being a true believer.
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Dec '10
Re: A Sobering Thought for Conservatives Considering Sitting Out 2012
Troy, I can't agree more. My lack of support for Romney is no secret, but when it comes to the court and the unelected regulatory state, I will do what I must to make sure Obama doesn't get another shot at burying our nation under his ideology.
Nov '11
Re: A Sobering Thought for Conservatives Considering Sitting Out 2012
Hear, hear! Another Warren court would change America beyond recognition, especially if it lasted decades. We have to remember that it only takes one generation to change a culture irreversibly.
The Native Americans who gave up their traditional ways of life to trade with the newcomer Europeans found that after one generation they had lost the knowledge that made their old lives viable. If the welfare/nanny state is allowed to expand unchecked, it will only take one generation for American self-reliance to be gone for good.
Dec '11
Re: A Sobering Thought for Conservatives Considering Sitting Out 2012
Absolutely! Too much of the time I think those who consider themselves "staunch" conservatives look for a political candidate resembling real estate's concept of a "hole in the market". It doesn't exist. Here's to attempting to think beyond the obvious.
May '10
Re: A Sobering Thought for Conservatives Considering Sitting Out 2012
You are entirely correct.
And, this is the excellent case against 3rd party candidates, and why it is so phenomonally irresponsible for Ron Paul, Donald Trump, whatizname, and whozits to be talking about a third party run.
Jul '10
Re: A Sobering Thought for Conservatives Considering Sitting Out 2012
Yes. Must Vote Romney. I. Have. Answered. National. Review's. Call.
Except for this guy.
Thomas Sowell.
Look, if America is going to hell in a handbasket, I want it to happen quick, like a flu shot.That makes the cure work faster. I couldn't care less about Obama's appointees. He's has had two already, and having a "conservative" pick is no guarantee for a conservative Justice. See O'Connor and Souter, just to name two.
This argument holds no water. Either Texas et al. will secede ten years from now or twenty, or never if a true conservative with ideas gets elected.
Your pick: Obama, Romney, or Anyone Else except Paul.
Too many "Inside the Beltway" believe that Romney will be their tool. Legislatively, this did not work with Bush Sr. or Bush Jr. Programmatically, it didn't work with Reagan (he stuck by Bork for all of three seconds) or with Bush, Sr. and Bush Jr. who was shamed into withdrawing Harriet Miers, who was no guarantee of conservatism (and coincidentally didn't go to Harvard).
What 'conservatives' need to realize is the perfect candidate does not exist. Reagan wasn't perfect. Get over it.
Jun '11
Re: A Sobering Thought for Conservatives Considering Sitting Out 2012
Troy, I am no Newt fan but I think Newt can beat Obama. Can Romney beat Obama? Well, yeah. Ronnie Paul? Sure. Joe the Plummer? I think yeah.
Romney, Newt, Paul, Perry, are all much more qualified than our current president.
Are the American people going to blow it 2 elections in a row? We very well could with Romney or whomever.
We better unite behind whichever alternative we have. If Obama wins, its ballgame. Over.
Edited on Dec 21, 2011 at 8:01pmDec '10
Re: A Sobering Thought for Conservatives Considering Sitting Out 2012
Terrell David: Troy, I am no Newt fan but I think Newt can beat Obama. Can Romney beat Obama? Well, yeah. Ronnie Paul? Sure. Joe the Plummer? I think yeah.
Romney, Newt, Paul, Perry, are all much more qualified than our current president.
Are the American people going to blow it 2 elections in a row? We very well could with Romney or whomever.
We better unite behind whichever alternative we have. If Obama wins, its ballgame. Over. · Dec 21 at 7:59pm
True, but like Michael Tee, I'm also worried that with only a slowdown of the crash the justices on the court won't really matter. They won't be there long enough to negatively or positively affect the outcome of our nation. Now that's a scary thought.
Jan '11
Re: A Sobering Thought for Conservatives Considering Sitting Out 2012
This has always been my main opposition to Obama: if he were simply the ideological leader of the Left, his shallowness would be rather harmless.
But his overt willingness to run around Congress, and to enforce his agenda without Congress, only magnifies the need for the other branch to hold him accountable. And yet, if he puts allies on the court who are eager to use the law as legislation, he simply replaces Congress for the Court as the legislature.
Anyone up for Lawrence Tribe on the Court? Cass Sunstein? Hillary? Biden? The disaster would be incalculable.
Aug '10
Re: A Sobering Thought for Conservatives Considering Sitting Out 2012
Barely able to find a presidential candidate , now we are asked to stack the court ? If life were that simple ! What alot of work -
Nov '10
Re: A Sobering Thought for Conservatives Considering Sitting Out 2012
The implicit assumption here seems to be that of course Romney is one with the best chance of beating Obama. With 70% of Republicans wanting someone else, and Romney's inability to give anyone a reason to vote for him, that could be a fatal mistake. It appears that the Democrats want the Republican nominee to be Romney as much as the Republican establishment does. That's a huge red flag.
Mar '11
Re: A Sobering Thought for Conservatives Considering Sitting Out 2012
Is this post directed at Mr Ryan, by any chance?
May '10
Re: A Sobering Thought for Conservatives Considering Sitting Out 2012
Michael Tee: ..............
Look, if America is going to hell in a handbasket, I want it to happen quick, like a flu shot.That makes the cure work faster.
Boy, that';s comforting. Shred America so we can save it. I've watched the last 3 years of this. I'm not sure it is working out. It is better to stop ObamaCare than to win the House in the mid-terms and still have ObamaCare moving in on fast-forward.
And, Terrell, assuming that you aren't a Paul conspiracy nut, and really believe that Newt is The Answer, I recommend that you listen to the latest Law Talk as soon as possible. Troy can tell you a little bit regarding why.
Mar '11
Re: A Sobering Thought for Conservatives Considering Sitting Out 2012
Michael Tee:
Look, if America is going to hell in a handbasket, I want it to happen quick, like a flu shot.That makes the cure work faster.
Furthermore, if it's going to hell, I want it to be under a Democrat, not a Republican, which just enforces the notion among some that there's no difference between the parties... which is an advantage for the Democrats.
As for the Nixon justification, OK, so he replaced some liberal justices. But he just slowed SCOTUS down, he didn't really change it, and he also brought us rule by the administrative state... we can all thank Tricky Dick for the EPA, after all, and school lunches, and a host of other new federal programs. Nixon was indeed the Romney of his time... and this is supposed to be an argument for Mitt Romney? Really?
May '10
Re: A Sobering Thought for Conservatives Considering Sitting Out 2012
I didn't read that as an argument FOR Mitt, I read that as an argument AGAINST sitting out the election if we don't get our candidate of choice with a pure ideology. ABO.
Re: A Sobering Thought for Conservatives Considering Sitting Out 2012
Ducatista ~
That may be Trende's assumption, but it's not mine. I've said here before that I think the case for Romney's electability has been overstated because it doesn't factor in how much his seeming lack of convictions will hurt him with voters across the ideological spectrum (see Kerry, John). I think a disciplined Newt Gingrich could actually be more electable. Unfortunately, I'm growing increasingly skeptical that a disciplined Newt Gingrich exists ... and the undisciplined version is an invitation to a colossal loss.
Re: A Sobering Thought for Conservatives Considering Sitting Out 2012
As Tom Lindholtz correctly points out, this is not an argument for Romney (at least not on my end, I can't speak for Sean Trende), but an argument for prudent decision making should Romney (or the unpalatable candidate of your choice) become the nominee, at which point the question shifts from "who is best?" to "who is better?"
The Nixon example is illustrative. Say what you will about the vices of school lunches, but I'd happily cede them in order to avoid the excesses of the Warren Court.
Douglas
As for the Nixon justification, OK, so he replaced some liberal justices. But he just slowed SCOTUS down, he didn't really change it, and he also brought us rule by the administrative state... we can all thank Tricky Dick for the EPA, after all, and school lunches, and a host of other new federal programs. Nixon was indeed the Romney of his time... and this is supposed to be an argument for Mitt Romney? Really? · Dec 21 at 9:15pm
Sep '10
Re: A Sobering Thought for Conservatives Considering Sitting Out 2012
This is why I want the GOP to nominate someone who can beat Obama. I'm just not sure Romney, or any of the current candidates, can do it.
May '11
Re: A Sobering Thought for Conservatives Considering Sitting Out 2012
Along the same lines, I was never enthusiastic about Ronald Reagan. But Al Haig, Cap Weinberger, John Lehman, and David Stockman were appointments I was enthusiastic about. Likewise G. W. Bush and Condoleezza Rice, Don Rumsfeld, and John Bolton.
I find that every Republican gives me some cabinet officials I shrug at, some I am satisfied with, and a few who really pursue the right policies. Democrats give me some cabinet officials I think are disasters, some I shake my head at and some I shrug at. Occasionally I get a Robert Gates or a Leon Panetta who are satisfactory.
I have never (in my adult life) had a Republican who was on my short list during primary season win the general. Every Republican has given me better policies than I would have gotten from a Democrat, and a few really exceptional cabinet officials as well.
So not only is there a question of judicial appointments, but cabinet appointments as well.
May '10
Re: A Sobering Thought for Conservatives Considering Sitting Out 2012
Why do we always gets these articles stating that conservatives should abandon ideological purity and hold their nose in the general, but never articles expressing the same sense of urgency toward the establishment should we elect a conservative nominee?
As it stands, I will always vote for the lesser-of-evils candidate, but I want to see the establishment promise that they won't thrown Gingrich, Perry, Paul, or any of their other undesirables under the bus should any one of them receive the nomination.
Too often this strain of argument seems like GOP moderates positioning so as to blame conservatives for a loss, regardless of the nominee, as much as trying to gin up support.
Sep '10
Re: A Sobering Thought for Conservatives Considering Sitting Out 2012
My primary concern is what will lead to the demise of the establishment Republican Party. Bush failed to place a high enough priority on stopping terrorism resulting in 9/11. His response was the LBJ guns and butter approach that help foster the financial crisis. If Gore had won the Dems would have been blamed for the entire mess. I am going to vote for another Bush because some 75 year old justice might retire? Give me a break?