A Small Warning
Although Americans may be much less interested in the debt ceiling debate than I think they should be, the rest of the world is studying this with fascination. I can't but imagine that quite some number of people are thinking, "Goodness! A weakened, self-absorbed, distracted America! Now's the chance to get away with anything!"
That would be the context in which to interpret this news item, I suspect:
China has demanded that the United States stop spy plane flights near the Chinese coast, saying they have "severely harmed" trust between the two countries, state-run media reported Wednesday.
The comments came after Taiwanese media reported two Chinese fighter jets attempted to scare off an American U2 reconnaissance plane that was collecting intelligence on China while flying along the Taiwan strait in late June.
Beijing's defence ministry said the US must discontinue such flights, calling them a "major obstacle" as the two Pacific powers try to put a series of military disputes behind them, China's Global Times reported.
So: Two PLA Sukhoi-27s cross the centerline chasing one of our U2s. Everyone downplays it--must have been an accident, nothing to see here. That's sort-of normal: These kinds of things do happen periodically in the Taiwan strait and have for decades and responsible politicians express displeasure but basically try to downplay them because what else are you going to do.
Then China starts demanding that the United States stop flying U2s near its coast. Note the asymmetry: They're not saying, "Well, that's sort of normal, these kinds of things do happen and have for decades and responsible politicians express displeasure but basically try to downplay them because what else are you going to do."
Roger Cliff, a specialist on the Chinese air force at the Project 2049 Institute--I don't know much about them--believes that last month's incident was more provocative than Taipei let on. He then says:
"Unless China has frequently done so in the past, which I doubt, crossing the centerline to shadow a U-2 is rather provocative,” he said. “I can’t think of any reason why China would start to do that at this particular time ... "
Really? He can't? A bit lacking in imagination there, I'd say.
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Comments :
Jun '10
Re: A Small Warning
Hit 'em when they're down -- that's what they are thinking. I agree with you, Claire.
China has some time bombs it's dealing with: it wants to prove their system superior to ours before they implode. If they can win that PR battle they think they can last longer. They want us to kowtow (literally).
Also, aren't all those extra men going to go into the mix in a way that will make China more pugnacious? Doesn't there have to be some sort of resolution of this as this generation gets older?
Sep '10
Re: A Small Warning
I have no way of knowing if the incident was more proactive than normal. But it did occur in June before the debt ceiling debate really heated up. Thinking that China was trying to take advantage of congressmen negotiating with Biden in secret about a compromise seems a stretch to me. I agree with your hypothesis that some may seek to take advantage of the situation. I find it doubtful that this is an example of it.
Mar '11
Re: A Small Warning
Reuters reports today that China is building another aircraft carrier.
Jun '10
Re: A Small Warning
The Taiwan issue has always been considered first in their priorities. They always rattle that cage first when they feel like it might have been forgotten. The Chinese people (not just their leaders) feel the same way about Taiwan as they do about Tibet. The only difference is that the 7th fleet couldn't help with Tibet -- so they gobbled that up.
Taiwan is a middle-term goal of the Commies. It's a sore point with us. So, it makes sense that this might be moved to the front burner sometime soon. How else will they be able to decide on this timing other than trying to push Obama a little and see what kowtowing he will do?
Apr '11
Re: A Small Warning
Both a small warning and a little OT, but I thought Claire might like to see this:
Arrests of intellectuals in Aleppo may turn tide
"The random arrests of doctors and lawyers in Aleppo in the past two days could mark a turning point in the 130-day-old Syrian uprising"
http://gulfnews.com/news/region/syria/arrests-of-intellectuals-in-aleppo-may-turn-tide-1.843577
Aleppo, second largest city in Syria, twenty six miles from Turkey.
Sep '10
Re: A Small Warning
Larry Koler
The Taiwan issue has always been considered first in their priorities. They always rattle that cage first when they feel like it might have been forgotten. The Chinese people (not just their leaders) feel the same way about Taiwan as they do about Tibet. The only difference is that the 7th fleet couldn't help with Tibet -- so they gobbled that up.
Taiwan is a middle-term goal of the Commies. It's a sore point with us. So, it makes sense that this might be moved to the front burner sometime soon. How else will they be able to decide on this timing other than trying to push Obama a little and see what kowtowing he will do? · Jul 27 at 11:18am
It happened in June. The debt debate heated up late June early July.
Jun '10
Re: A Small Warning
liberal jim
Larry Koler
...
It happened in June. The debt debate heated up late June early July.
I understand your straw-man argument -- what we are talking about here is Claire's general point. Obama is getting weakened by these debt ceiling negotiations (there have been more than one) and the whole issue of our financial solvency as regards our creditors. Obama is perceived as getting weaker and weaker (Biden in secret, notwithstanding) and Commies smell weakness -- that's how they got to be Commies.
Re: A Small Warning
I don't usually approve of summing up a complex geopolitical situation in a slogan, but you just did it so well that I doubt it will ever be done better.
Jun '10
Re: A Small Warning
Claire Berlinski, Ed.
I don't usually approve of summing up a complex geopolitical situation in a slogan, but you just did it so well that I doubt it will ever be done better. · Jul 27 at 1:45pm
Thanks, Claire. Communist groups seem to be reliable in lifting up into their leadership the most evil man in the room. This has happened so many times we now know it's a feature and not a bug (as all the apologists claim).
Dec '10
Re: A Small Warning
Well, they have known for a long time, just how weak we are and how much weaker we are growing. They have just taken the Panama Canal from us, and we let them. They use our money to fund their adventures. They pay off our politicians to make sure their missiles no longer careen out of the sky.
They have been developing a long term approach to seizing Taiwan from the free Chinese, forever. Remember the provocations under G.W. Bush? Here's another Bush era provocation that was known about, but is only now becoming declassified.
Communist China is not our friend; surprise!