A Question from Someone Whose Earliest Memory Is from 1989
Among my earliest life memories are the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake and seeing footage of the Berlin Wall falling later that autumn. I was too young to remember George H. W. Bush's 1988 convention vow that he wouldn't raise taxes, but I do remember in 1992 when Pat Buchanan, Ross Perot, Bill Clinton, and others forced Bush to eat crow over his broken promise. Then Bush lost, and his defeat was attributed to his reneging on his tax pledge as though he were the first and only politician to ever fail to deliver on a campaign promise.
Those must have been simpler times or something because Barack Obama promised to close Guantanamo, not raise taxes on middle class families, cut the deficit in half, televise the health care debates, increase the transparency of his administration, allow consumers to keep their insurance plans if they liked them, reduce insurance premiums, not allow the unemployment rate to top 8 percent if his stimulus was passed, not hire lobbyists, create 2.5 million shovel ready jobs, not ship stimulus jobs overseas, and so on and so forth.
And yet the man still has a better than decent chance at winning in November. What gives? Do Americans simply have lower expectations of their presidents than they did two decades ago? Or is it only Republicans that are held to their campaign promises?
Forgive me as I hide behind my youth to ask what may well be an embarrassingly naïve question.
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Comments:
Aug '10
Re: A Question from Someone Whose Earliest Memory Is from 1989
Congrats hnymnr !
So three questions appear to ask why democrats get all the breaks ?
The disenfranchising of 2/3 of the country ?
A successful coverup of cosmic proportion ?
Divine sarcasm ?
Consider hyperspeed ( Took two weeks for the Loma Prieto earthquake to bring down the wall- Reagan retained certain rights as past Gov !) karmic crapshoot . It's only like 6 pm out there ?
Edited on September 14, 2012 at 2:58amMay '10
Re: A Question from Someone Whose Earliest Memory Is from 1989
Diane Ellis, Ed.: ... Ido remember in 1992 when Pat Buchanan, Ross Perot, Bill Clinton, and others forced Bush to eat crow over his broken promise.
...
Or is it only Republicans that are held to their campaign promises?
· · 8 minutes ago
It wasn't only Bush's opponents, but every single member of the media except Rush Limbaugh and the insignificant conservative press. All anyone heard from any mainstream outlets was how out of touch Bush was. Now all anyone hears from mainstream outlets is how out of touch (and mean, and stupid, and arrogant, and racist, and dishonest, and incompetent, &c.) Romney is.
Take this week's events, for example. We just witnessed the biggest foreign policy failure in years, fruit of the Obama administration's naïve handling of events during the so-called Arab Spring, and the default narrative is how Romney was wrong to point this out! Humbug I say!
May '11
Re: A Question from Someone Whose Earliest Memory Is from 1989
I think it's safe to say that there is almost zero chance that Obama will be re-elected. At least that is how I will remember it on November 7.
Aug '10
Re: A Question from Someone Whose Earliest Memory Is from 1989
Diane, you have to realize this wasn't just some campaign promise nestled in amongst a laundry list of bullet points. It was a solemn vow, repeated again and again, and worded so strongly that it appeared to have bedrock underneath it:
He then was duped into raising them, some kind of quid pro quo deal with the Democrats as I recall. I'm sorry, but we Republicans hold our elected leaders to a higher standard than the Democrats.
I voted for Perot.
Jan '11
Re: A Question from Someone Whose Earliest Memory Is from 1989
We're at the point where the candidate doesn't matter. Democrats are going to vote for him. Republicans are going to vote for Romney. The only remaining question is how many, not for whom.
This is supposed to be the period when Americans "evaluate" the candidates, but there isn't any evaluation going on. We're all locked in.
Independents are supposed to be the cushion, favoring one party when it's doing well, or rejecting it when it isn't. But I'd argue that there just aren't that many independents, no matter what the polls say. I'm now more convinced that independents are a fiction; they've made up their mind, but they just don't want to tell a pollster who they're going to vote for.
Which suggests that independents embody the Bradley Effect. A whole lot of people don't want to publicly admit that they won't vote for Obama, since they'll be labeled as racists. That's why the polls are useless, and why experts who rely on them can be ignored.
That's why I suspect Paul Rahe is right. Landslide.
Mar '11
Re: A Question from Someone Whose Earliest Memory Is from 1989
Promise keeping is still important to the same people-Republicans. Many of those people voted Perot on principle. But their people stay true blue through thick and lie.
Apr '12
Re: A Question from Someone Whose Earliest Memory Is from 1989
It is the soft bigotry of low expectations
Re: A Question from Someone Whose Earliest Memory Is from 1989
I admire your optimism. And some days I share it. But folks on Intrade seem to think Obama's got this one in the bag.
Oct '10
Re: A Question from Someone Whose Earliest Memory Is from 1989
I remember Ike well. Truly a stong figure as President and Commander in Chief. Our recent Presidents have amounted to nothing more that children in short pants when it comes to leadership.
Where is the next Strong Horse to be found ? A lot depends upon that.
Apr '11
Re: A Question from Someone Whose Earliest Memory Is from 1989
We live in a world of feelings. Intentions are important even if follow through falls far short. That he means well is enough.
Of course, we think he means well because we project what we want on this invisable man. We have dressed him in empathy and idealism and forget he is naked. He is proud and we think that because he is a minority, that he should be proud. We don't understand that there is not a shred of humility and the pride is unwarrented.
Worse then that, everyone wants to be him. So they are voting for themselves and what they feel entitiled to. Hard to do without something if you can get it just for a vote and just for a little less freedom. These people have never been free--they have always been dependent on others. Not only for support, but for decisions they feel unqualified to make.
It isn't hopeless, but it won't be easy to change the mind set.
May '10
Re: A Question from Someone Whose Earliest Memory Is from 1989
I agree with KC. The only Americans who don't know who they will vote for yet are stupid, careless or conceited. They will be won over by rhetoric and imagery as shallow as themselves.
Sep '12
Re: A Question from Someone Whose Earliest Memory Is from 1989
KC Mulville:
Which suggests that independents embody the Bradley Effect. A whole lot of people don't want to publicly admit that they won't vote for Obama, since they'll be labeled as racists. That's why the polls are useless, and why experts who rely on them can be ignored.
Is polling a non-anonymous process?
Also, I wouldn't put much stock in intrade. Only one poll that really matters -- the recounts!
Dec '11
Re: A Question from Someone Whose Earliest Memory Is from 1989
As one who lives and breathes among numerous "four percenters," I certainly agree with this:
KC Mulville:
I'm now more convinced that independents are a fiction; they've made up their mind, but they just don't want to tell a pollster who they're going to vote for.
But I disagree with this:
KC Mulville:
A whole lot of people don't want to publicly admit that they won't vote for Obama, since they'll be labeled as racists.
A whole lot of people will vote for Obama, but don't want to admit it.
Jun '12
Re: A Question from Someone Whose Earliest Memory Is from 1989
Because the lickspittle press (hat tip to Rob Long) have convinced half of America that all that shouldn't matter and that our founding principles are either quaint but outdated or something to be superseded by euro-style statism.
May '10
Re: A Question from Someone Whose Earliest Memory Is from 1989
Diane, simple thought experiment: Who is it that serves as America's mouthpiece to remind Presidents of their promises unkept?
Is it not the MSM? They are lapdogs of the Dems in general, and the Dem President in particular. They will get all blustery over a Republican doing anything off the line. But they will protect a Dem come hell or high water.
Case in point: CNN did two videos, Romney/Obama Revealed. To the thoughtless uncritical observer they seemed both balanced and fair. But the video on Romney went back to high school and explored all manner of early influences, as well as his obvioushistory with Bain, Olympics, MA Gov. The video on Obama covered basically just the last four years. Utterly. Issuing was any mention or exploration of college years, Bill Ayers, Jeremiah Wright, Tony Rezco, or the host of other negative influences that a moderately intelligent but attentive conservative could tell you about.
This is why it is so important to know in advance what message you're going to get out REGARDLESS of the media's questions.
Jun '10
Re: A Question from Someone Whose Earliest Memory Is from 1989
I agree with Tom. The MSM now overtly provides cover for the left.
The other major change in the last 20-30 years has been the leftward lurch of the Democrats. This hasn't been a slowly-moving trendline--it's been a lurch, and especially so since 2000.
The Democrats now proudly defend positions that only the most radical of them would have uttered a few decades ago (for example, the "you didn't build that" line).
Add to that a third factor, cultural decline, and you end up with the America of 2012.
Mar '12
Re: A Question from Someone Whose Earliest Memory Is from 1989
About 1978 I worked my 1st phone bank for the State GOP. I remember distinctly one call. After I listed the items of what was "most important to you", the woman whispered "battered women". About that time, trust funders were moving to this St., and within two decades we were dark blue w/ long-time U.S. Sen's who are lib/prog/Alinskiites. My daughter worked on GHWB's campaign here; still gets a ration for it. A cockeyed optimist, I think we have an opportunity to change things. It seems like such a lost cause, few want to try. We need a local/ground-up plan. The press operates from a state-owned building in the St. capital, and has no interest in rocking the boat. Our young people leave the State to have a viable financial future. We may move on, too, for retirement. Being a political junky, I ask people their preferences. Many are hesitant to open up, until I tell them I'm Tea Party. Will this State go for Romney? The Lord works in mysterious ways -- and answers prayers.
Re: A Question from Someone Whose Earliest Memory Is from 1989
Believe it or not, there are decent, smart people out there who have a really hard time making political decisions. They lead real lives and don't understand how to evaluate politicians who seem so divorced from reality.
I don't really understand these people, but I live with one.
Apr '11
Re: A Question from Someone Whose Earliest Memory Is from 1989
Diane Ellis, Ed.
I admire your optimism. And some days I share it. But folks on Intrade seem to think Obama's got this one in the bag. · 54 minutes ago
And what would it cost to manipulate Intrade? Serious question.
May '10
Re: A Question from Someone Whose Earliest Memory Is from 1989
Two things cost Bush that election
1. It was pretty clear he really wasn't all that enthusiastic about winning (you would be too young to remember his Hamlet-like dithering before he actually announced)
2. Ross Perot, who disappeared without a trace the day after the election