A Question for Claire: Ottomania?
James Poulos ·
February 4, 2012 at 8:16pm
So, Claire. The National is now running analysts' commentaries floating a joint Turkish-Jordanian-Gulf intervention in Syria, meaning a Turkish intervention. None less than Anne-Marie Slaughter says this is "a realistic scenario." Obviously this is about the last possible thing the Russians would want. (Well, second last.) But Turkey is, in spite of it all, in a position of relative strength and freedom of operation.
And so: how likely do you judge such an eventuality to be? If at all likely, how soon?
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Apr '11
Re: A Question for Claire: Ottomania?
Well one thing is sure Syrian army General Mustafa Ahmad al-Sheikh is right that events are moving fast in a malign direction. There are large sectarian groups in Syria that will be at each others throats. This will reverberate all over the ME. Since Syria's Shia near neighbor Iran is such a destructive influence in Syria, Lebanon, Afghanistan and Iraq it is worth noting David Goldman's recent short article on Iran.
He posits economic and social conditions are deteriorating so rapidly in Iran that they will have to make some kind of move to try and salvage the Iranian revolution and increase national revenue:
"Iran is planning to double its defense budget even though its currency is collapsing."
"At least for the time being, sanctions strengthen the relative position of the regime, while undermining its long-term staying power — unless, of course, Tehran begins a new set of regional wars under a nuclear umbrella."
http://pjmedia.com/spengler/2012/02/03/lessons-about-iran-from-hitler/
Dec '10
Re: A Question for Claire: Ottomania?
jonorose
James Gawron
There are never guarantees. The only problem with Bush in Iraq was that after "Shock and Awe" he waited years to bring on the "Surge".
If we learn from the past rather then whine about it we will be Victorious...
Only problem is, I have to live with the consequences (its about 70km as the crow flies from where I sit right now in the North of Israel to the Syrian border)
Surely you must be joking,
You actually feel secure with the status quo. Missiles of increasing number, range, acuracy, and payload are being moved close to the border as we speak. To do nothing is stupidity. You will get many, many, young Israeli soldiers killed when Hesbollah attacks. They have the mentality of a rabid dog. They thirst for Israeli blood and Jihad. They say so in their charter. They say so when interviewed by reporters. When that psychotic atheist monstor Chomsky went for a visit, while Israeli 19 year olds were losing their lives, they said again that they wanted no two state solution but wanted all the Jews dead.
You let them build up and you did nothing. WAKE UP!!
Edited on February 5, 2012 at 11:18pmMar '11
Re: A Question for Claire: Ottomania?
Claire Berlinski, Ed.
That's two of us. And whether or not people further away feel it as intensely as we do, it's everyone.
Here's some good reporting, in the sense that the reporter at least seems to be trying to present the context and to let the reader know what he doesn't know. · 19 hours ago
I agree with both jonorose and Claire; while there is no doubt about the nature of the Assad regime (and its allies), there is no reason to expect what follows it to be any better. In fact, from the analysis I've read I would guess that the successor regime is likely to be Salafist / Muslim Brotherhood.
None of this means that one ought to allow the current regime to survive, however, and any chance to weaken Syria, Iran and Hezbollah is to be seriously considered. It just means that (to paraphrase Claire) we need to think very, very carefully about our steps.
Aug '11
Re: A Question for Claire: Ottomania?
James Gawron
.......You let them build up and you did nothing. WAKE UP!! · 12 hours ago
Edited 12 hours ago
You wake up. You appear to be completely out of touch with the reality of the situation.
FYI, removal of Assad will have zero effect on the tens of thousands of rockets in the hands of Hezbollah or Hamas. I am well aware that Israel will have to deal with that at some stage.
And yes, many Israeli soldiers - and civilians - will die. To me the army means many of the people closest to me - my family and friends. My daughter is currently in the army and is thus considered a legitimate military target by most of the left. My house - and thus my wife and kids - will be in danger of those rockets and suicide bombers. So believe you me, I understand the consequences of war. I've lived through several of them in the last few years.
How about you?
Dec '10
Re: A Question for Claire: Ottomania?
jonorose
James Gawron
.......You let them build up and you did nothing. WAKE UP!! · 12 hours ago
Edited 12 hours ago
FYI, removal of Assad will have zero effect on the tens of thousands of rockets in the hands of Hezbollah or Hamas. I am well aware that Israel will have to deal with that at some stage.
How about you? · 2 hours ago
Jonrose,
I am sorry if I am insulting you but there is no other way. The removal of the Assad regime will stop the Syrian supply line to the North. The Israeli military will clear the ones that are there out and that will be an end to it.
Also, the end of Assad will end the tyranny in Lebanon. Lebanon has been a Christian country for a 1,000 years. It is only the murdering Syrians which have created the horror which is Lebanon.
To break the hold of Tehran is of paramount importance. They are the EVIL force behind everything. Assad has been their willing agent.
This is like invading Sicily before Normandy. A stepping stone to final Victory!
Aug '11
Re: A Question for Claire: Ottomania?
James Gawron
Jonrose,
I am sorry if I am insulting you but there is no other way. The removal of the Assad regime will stop the Syrian supply line to the North. The Israeli military will clear the ones that are there out and that will be an end to it.
Also, the end of Assad will end the tyranny in Lebanon. Lebanon has been a Christian country for a 1,000 years. It is only the murdering Syrians which have created the horror which is Lebanon.
To break the hold of Tehran is of paramount importance. They are the EVIL force behind everything. Assad has been their willing agent.
This is like invading Sicily before Normandy. A stepping stone to final Victory! · 1 hour ago
I'm not insulted, and apology accepted. But to think that Iran is the only bad guy in the region is extremely naive. Its not like its "Shia bad, Sunni good". Remember that Al Qaeda is Sunni. So are the Salafists and the Moslem Brotherhood, all of them detest non-Muslims - Jews, Israelis and Americans highest on their list - just as much as the Iranians. Its replacing one brand of Islamofascism with another.
Dec '10
Re: A Question for Claire: Ottomania?
Jonorose,
I understand your concern but we must move forward or we will be caught frozen in place. Iran is the principle mad regime. The Iranian population is the most educated and the most likely to succeed as an emergent economy like India and China. They are held in place by pure dictatorial tyranny. Iran openly supports holocaust denial and the absolute destruction of the state of Israel. If Obama had destabilized Iran in 2009 we probably wouldn't be dealing with a Muslim Brotherhood controlled Egypt. They are purging ala Stalin in the 30s all the old Mubarak people.
The Saudis and the Turks hate Iran. The insanity of Amadinejad and the Supreme Leader is a threat to both the Saudis and the Turks. There is nothing that they would like more then to be rid of them. They can not say so but it is obvious that is what they want.
It is Obama that is naive. He imagined he was helping his Muslim step father. Instead he has let the Jihadist Pandora out of her box. We must put it back in pronto or everyone is at risk.
Regards,
Jim