A Point About the Isfahan Explosion that Should Be More Obvious
You know that scene in Repo Man where Agent Rogersz says, "It happens sometimes. People just explode?" That's true of any big city, especially in the developing world: Things just explode. Lots of things just explode: natural gas, propane tanks, improperly stored industrial chemicals, grain elevators, meth labs. Happens every day.
All we know is that there were reports of a loud noise, like an explosion. Isfahan is a city of 1.5 million people. There's a lot more going on there than uranium conversion.
I'm seeing excited commentary all over the place to the effect of, "an explosion in a city with a nuclear facility in Iran--that cannot be an accident." Well, actually, it can be. Dumb accidents are a lot more common than successful conspiracies to sabotage a highly-guarded nuclear facility.
- Comment (12)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (1)
Comments :
Dec '10
Re: A Point About the Isfahan Explosion that Should Be More Obvious
The Isfahan explosion comes in the wake of the explosion at the Iranian missile base and the explosion at the Hezbollah weapons dump in Lebanon, as well as other incidents like the Stuxnet virus and the strange deaths of Iranian nuclear scientists. Once may be an accident, twice may be a coincidence, but three times is most probably enemy action. (And when things do random blow up, there is seldom the kind of mad scramble to deny and misattribute them that we've seen in Isfahan.)
Dec '10
Re: A Point About the Isfahan Explosion that Should Be More Obvious
The interesting thing is that the Isfahan explosion occurred in broad daylight. I hope we are able to learn just what blew up, because it will be fascinating to find out if it was military-related and what possible causes there might be for an explosion at such a place.
Edited on Nov 29, 2011 at 12:08amRe: A Point About the Isfahan Explosion that Should Be More Obvious
Oh, sure there is. I'd guess "deny and misattribute" is a government reflex at this point. I'm not saying it wasn't sabotage. I'm just saying that we really don't know what it was, and lots of things cause explosions. There's always a tendency in these situations for people to focus on what they think is important--the nuclear program--and forget that there's also a whole city there, a big one, where explosions presumably happen just as often as they do in any big city with lax controls on hazardous and flammable materials, which is to say, all too often.
Aug '11
Re: A Point About the Isfahan Explosion that Should Be More Obvious
Dan Meridor has said as much this morning in Israel as reported in this article in the Jerusalem Post.
Personally I'm hoping that its some kind of internal Iranian insurgency that is supported by the Mossad and the CIA, and that no innocent Iranians were harmed. How cool would it be for the Arab Spring/Islamic Winter to trigger major instability within Iran, leading eventually to at least one pro-Western semi-Democratic regime in the region..... shut up, stop laughing. I can dream!
Aug '11
Re: A Point About the Isfahan Explosion that Should Be More Obvious
Kinda reminds me of Freud's "sometimes a cigar is just a cigar"
Re: A Point About the Isfahan Explosion that Should Be More Obvious
Yes, I think my point is basically Meridor's: Most of life isn't the movies, and Occam's Razor still applies.
If a "big explosion" were reported in Beersheba, it wouldn't make sense to think--"Wow, that's close to Dimona! IRG sabotage!" But we're talking about roughly the same area, geographically speaking.
Feb '11
Re: A Point About the Isfahan Explosion that Should Be More Obvious
Claire Berlinski, Ed.
Yes, I think my point is basically Meridor's: Most of life isn't the movies, and Occam's Razor still applies.
Occam's Razor includes discounting anything said in the name of Dan Meridor, a sort of David Brooks of the Israeli right.
Edited on Nov 29, 2011 at 1:11amMar '11
Re: A Point About the Isfahan Explosion that Should Be More Obvious
Heh. All true, but still, I'd like it if we had someone on the ground in Iran leaving things in the wreckage from time to time. Like this:
It's true that you can think too much. It follows that the other guy can think too much too. Give him something to think too much about.
May '10
Re: A Point About the Isfahan Explosion that Should Be More Obvious
Repo Man reference!! Some of the best work Harry Dean Stanton and Emilio Estevez ever did.
"Everyone could stand a hundred chest x-rays a year! They ought to have 'em, too!"
Oct '11
Re: A Point About the Isfahan Explosion that Should Be More Obvious
A ray of common sense. Thanks Claire.
Mar '11
Re: A Point About the Isfahan Explosion that Should Be More Obvious
Israel P.
Claire Berlinski, Ed.
Yes, I think my point is basically Meridor's: Most of life isn't the movies, and Occam's Razor still applies.
Occam's Razor includes discounting anything said in the name of Dan Meridor, a sort of David Brooks of the Israeli right. · Nov 29 at 1:10am
Edited on Nov 29 at 01:11 am
True. The Israeli version of a "RINO", I think.
Aug '11
Re: A Point About the Isfahan Explosion that Should Be More Obvious
Jerusalem Post is now reporting that they have satellite confirmation that the blast was at the uranium enrichment faciliy