A Grab Bag of Good Economic News. Sort Of.
Our side is in a strategic bind. On the one hand, we want the economy to improve. Nobody likes unemployment to be this high, or growth this slow.
But on the other hand, it kills us that things might improve under this guy, when he's done everything he can to hobble the economy.
But on the other other hand, we need to digest the following indicators, and adjust our pitch to the moderate swing voters accordingly. Because the only way to win in November is for some of the folks who voted for Obama to vote for our side.
Two big items:
1. Walmart says that the economy is "back on track." From Forbes:
Americans are back in Wal-Mart stores, says CEO Mike Duke.
And expecting strong sales this year, Wal-Mart, a Dow component, raised its quarterly dividend 9%. “We are pleased that the strength of our financial position allows Walmart to again increase our dividend payout to shareholders,” Duke Thursday said in a news release.
2. Consumer confidence hit a one-year high in February. From Reuters:
Consumer confidence scaled a one-year high in February as optimism about the labor market offset concerns over rising gasoline prices, an independent survey showed on Tuesday.
The Conference Board said its index of consumer attitudes increased to 70.8 this month - the highest reading since February last year - from an upwardly revised 61.5 in January.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index rising to 63.0 from a previously reported reading of 61.1 in January.
"Consumers are considerably less pessimistic about current business and labor market conditions than they were in January," said Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said in a statement.
"And, despite further increases in gas prices, they are more optimistic about the short-term outlook for the economy, job prospects and their financial situation."
So we're going to need to be pretty tightly focused, it seems to me, on jobs, debt, and government waste. And gas prices. Anything else I'm missing? Again, the key is to win back Obama voters. Anything else and we're just spinning our wheels.
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Jan '11
Re: A Grab Bag of Good Economic News. Sort Of.
Repeal of Obamacare, tax & entitlement reform (not sure if that falls under your definition of debt).
Dec '10
Re: A Grab Bag of Good Economic News. Sort Of.
Could the increase in Walmart's fortunes be accounted for by the fact that enough people have swallowed their pride to start shopping there?
Could number 2 be explained by exuberance engendered by the first ray of hope in years?
Shouldn't the unemployment numbers for February be out by now? Are they being withheld until after tomorrow's primaries?
Dec '11
Re: A Grab Bag of Good Economic News. Sort Of.
I remember the recovery summer. Riding along the bottom is going to have peaks and valleys too.
Jun '11
Re: A Grab Bag of Good Economic News. Sort Of.
It is a mixed bag at best. factory orders and shipments dropped this month and inventories are up. Last month was bad for durable goods
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/03/05/biggest-drop-in-factory-orders-shipments-in-more-than-a-year/
Jan '11
Re: A Grab Bag of Good Economic News. Sort Of.
Need to paint a vision of an economically prosperous America 5-10 years down the road -- where are we going as a nation? -- to compete with President Obama and more importantly with China.
Aug '10
Re: A Grab Bag of Good Economic News. Sort Of.
The mighty American economy is trying to get up off the mat after taking numerous roundhouses and body blows from the last two administrations. Romney will help it to its feet - Obama will kick it in the ribs when it gets to its knees to send it down for the count.
Mar '11
Re: A Grab Bag of Good Economic News. Sort Of.
Which summer was the recovery summer? Wasn't there more than one?
It would be nice to think that some people might be annoyed at the performance of the Apologizer-in-Chief in foreign policy, but I don't know how big a swath of the precious independents that might gain us.
Feb '11
Re: A Grab Bag of Good Economic News. Sort Of.
The economy will never improve under this President unless he does a u-turn and undoes all that he's done to date. There may be a slowing of the decline and a few brief seasonal bump-ups, but this man is sucking capital out of the private sector at such a rate that there can never be an economic recovery. Furthermore, the capital he is spending is being spent incredibly inefficiently -- even by the standards of the federal government. I bet the multiplier on governmental spending now is probably on the order of .65 or lower. (A $1.00 spent by the government putting $0.65 into the economy, i.e. destroying a third of the value of what was spent.)
He may be effective in playing with the statistics to pretend things are better (for example, if unemployment were calculated now as it was when Reagan came to office, we'd be over 15%; if it were calculated now the same as when Bush left office it'd be around 11%), but he won't make any real improvements.
The only good bet on real economic improvement under Obama is a Put option.
Aug '10
Re: A Grab Bag of Good Economic News. Sort Of.
My first thought, too.
Jul '11
Re: A Grab Bag of Good Economic News. Sort Of.
Yes you're missing Obama's scandals. We ignore them at our own peril.
Dec '10
Re: A Grab Bag of Good Economic News. Sort Of.
Walmart sales and consumer confidence might have something to do with this chart from the Fed. For a moment, at the start of the recession, I thought that people had learned a lesson about easy credit. It appears that they have not.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=5uh
Edited on March 5, 2012 at 10:54pmFeb '12
Re: A Grab Bag of Good Economic News. Sort Of.
I haven't heard the following arguments much, wonder why not:
A reelected Obama is an unfettered Obama. If you think he's bad now, realize he's restraining his impulses so he gets reelected. And he will get to nominate Supreme Court Justices.
I'm also counting on what Brietbart's shop has in the queue as a constant drip of evidence about Obama's radicalism. Could the Harvard tapes show Obama saying things like, "America and capitalism need to be brought down, and I'm committed to making that happen." At CPAC Breitbart certainly appeared confident about having very damning evidence.
Feb '11
Re: A Grab Bag of Good Economic News. Sort Of.
...and the Fed policies to support this insane level of deficit spending is building an inflation bubble that will crush swaths of the economy when it pops. So we have the worst of both worlds on the monetary policy: artificially low rates wiping out savings now, to be followed by a wip-saw of high inflation when the bubble blows. People on fixed incomes will be destroyed if this keeps up much longer.
Edited on March 5, 2012 at 10:58pmAug '11
Re: A Grab Bag of Good Economic News. Sort Of.
The King Prawn: Could the increase in Walmart's fortunes be accounted for by the fact that enough people have swallowed their pride to start shopping there?
Could number 2 be explained by exuberance engendered by the first ray of hope in years?
Shouldn't the unemployment numbers for February be out by now? Are they being withheld until after tomorrow's primaries? · 29 minutes ago
Yes--my husband and I wondered about that too. They should have been out last week.
Dec '10
Re: A Grab Bag of Good Economic News. Sort Of.
Anthony Kaiser: Walmart sales and consumer confidence might have something to do with this chart from the Fed. For a moment, at the start of the recession, I thought that people had learned a lesson about easy credit. It appears that they have not.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=5uh · 6 minutes ago
Scary stuff. It may be a safe assumption that the stagnating economy and wages coupled with inflation in both fuel and food are forcing people who tried to get off credit to start relying on it to make ends meet.
Dec '10
Re: A Grab Bag of Good Economic News. Sort Of.
EasternShoreGirl
The King Prawn: Could the increase in Walmart's fortunes be accounted for by the fact that enough people have swallowed their pride to start shopping there?
Could number 2 be explained by exuberance engendered by the first ray of hope in years?
Shouldn't the unemployment numbers for February be out by now? Are they being withheld until after tomorrow's primaries? · 29 minutes ago
Yes--my husband and I wondered about that too. They should have been out last week. · 4 minutes ago
Friday, according to the LA Times.
Mar '11
Re: A Grab Bag of Good Economic News. Sort Of.
I don't think that improving Walmart sales is a positive economic indicator. When Neiman Markups increases its dividend I will believe the economy is on the mend.
Re: A Grab Bag of Good Economic News. Sort Of.
maureen dirienzo: I haven't heard the following arguments much, wonder why not:
A reelected Obama is an unfettered Obama. If you think he's bad now, realize he's restraining his impulses so he gets reelected. And he will get to nominate Supreme Court Justices.
A friend just made that argument to me on Saturday. He's pretty apolitical but he said that an unrestrained Obama scared him.
Re: A Grab Bag of Good Economic News. Sort Of.
Economy
Chronic joblessness, especially for your children.
Slight growth at the cost of a staggering, society-ending pyramid of debt that will need to be paid for by your children, with no way out offered by the president.
War on energy. EPA and coal; Keystone XL.
Government overreach
Obamacare: If you like the latest "contraception" controversy, get ready for lots more; inevitable when the law replaces the workings of the market and civil society generally.
Scandals
Fast and furious--intentionally arming Mexican drug cartels in hopes of creating more support for gun control domestically.
Solyndra and other clean-tech boondoggles. Even if you love President Obama, he's not much of a venture capitalist.
Others?
May '10
Re: A Grab Bag of Good Economic News. Sort Of.
There is a definite time lag here. Inventories over all are rising, and factory orders are plummeting. Consumer confidence catches up with that after a couple of months.