A Fifteen Percent Disparity
This morning, Gallup released its final pre-election generic ballot poll results. They show the Republicans ahead among likely voters by 15% -- a greater margin than either party has attained in the sixty years in which the Gallup organization has been collecting this sort of information, apart from the 20% margin achieved by the Democrats in 1974 in the wake of the Watergate scandal. Moreover, this poll assumes a turnout of 45%, which is larger by more than 5% than any midterm turnout of registered voters since eighteen-year-olds began to vote in 1974.
UPDATE: To get a sense of what this all means, you might want to look at Jay Cost’s latest post . As he explains, Gallup has the Republican margin at twice what it was in 1946 and 1994. This is going to be very, very big.
I have said it before; I will say it again: The Times They Are A-Changing.
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Jun '10
Re: A Fifteen Percent Disparity
I'll make a wild guess based on nothing more than intuition. Republicans will claim 95% of all races that fall within the polling margin of error. In addition, the GOP will pick up between 20 and 33 percent of districts currently listed as leans Dem.
Jun '10
Re: A Fifteen Percent Disparity
From Paul/Paules mouths to God's ears. Personally, I am nervous as heck about all of these prognostications and am praying that Wednesday evening I can break out a very fine cigar and a very dry martini.
Oct '10
Re: A Fifteen Percent Disparity
The newest endangered species: the Blue Dog
Re: A Fifteen Percent Disparity
Amen, brother Rahe.
May '10
Re: A Fifteen Percent Disparity
My thoughts keep returning to the Congressman who represents the District where I grew up: Ike Skelton of the Missouri Fourth. Skelton is a Democrat who has represented the western Missouri district since 1976. He has seniority on the Armed Services committee, was a key supporter of two military bases in the district (Whiteman AFB and Fort Leonard Wood) and has earned the respect of the military. Overall, Mr. Skelton is a decent man and a true patriot, but his time may have come. He has a stiff challenge for the first time I can remember and it is no secret that the wind in his challenger's sails is opposition to a Democrat party agenda that I suspect Skelton had little or no love for. If Nancy Pelosi has any grace at all, there will be several people like Ike Skelton to whom she should apologize on Wednesday. I won't be holding my breath, though.
I guess what I am trying to say is when the Democrats no longer have room for a man like Ike Shelton, they have truly gone round the bend.