A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
Troy Senik ·
September 13, 2011 at 4:27am
Thanks to all the members who joined the live chat for the CNN debate tonight. I have just a few thoughts to add to Peter's below, as I agree with every word he wrote:
- This field is remarkable compared to where we were four years ago at this time. At that point, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Fred Thompson, and Rudy Giuliani all had plausible shots at being competitive for the nomination. It's now clearer than ever that -- barring any truly momentous upheavals -- this is a Perry v. Romney race.
- Further to that point, this is Perry's nomination to lose, not Romney's to win. Perry clearly connects with the base on a visceral level and the audience tonight (as well as the broader GOP primary electorate) seems inclined to regard whatever political sins he has committed as aberrations rather than fundamental flaws (a luxury Romney clearly doesn't enjoy).
- A few notes on the other candidates: Bachmann had one good debate and that fact primarily stemmed from how heavily she was underestimated coming in. Now that the surprise has worn off -- and now that Perry seems like a more presidential embodiment of similar principles -- her hour has likely passed. Newt continues to do what he does best, functioning as a hyper-intelligent and irascible gadfly. And Jon Huntsman should thank heaven for his lack of self-awareness; otherwise, he'd loathe himself as much as virtually everyone else in the Republican Party does.
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Jan '11
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
Does it bother anyone else that Perry's main defense on the HPV vaccine question is that he did it for "life" and that he will always err on the side of life? I find that formula disquieting because it can be used on almost any issue -- it would serve equally well to defend Obamacare, for example, or putting obese children in foster care, or regulating salt in New York City restaurants. This sort of utilitarian argument should not figure in a GOP debate, especially a debate for the presidential nomination where adherence to the Constitution should be paramount
Sep '10
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
Does it bother anyone else that Perry's main defense on the HPV vaccine question is that he did it for "life" and that he will always err on the side of life?
Having read Christopher Kaczor's excellent analysis of the issue in First Things magazine, I'm going to guess that Governor Perry never really thought it through thoroughly, though its certainly an effective line of attack for Michelle Bachmann to play up the crony capitalism angle. Whether there's anything to the charge or not, we'll see. I think she sees the charge as her last hope at staying relevant in the debates and delegate count race.
I can tell you that I had a female doctor tell me I should have my sons given the HPV medication, and many parents just assume that their own kids should have it without much thought given to potential adverse reactions or to the moral hazard inherent in act of giving it to their children and discussing the reasons for it.
Is it sloppy reasoning? Yes. Is it indicative of a more systemic philosophic error? That's what the primary race will expose.
Jun '10
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
Michele Bachmann already cornered the Howard Dean creap-o factor with that goddawful laugh tonight.
Sep '10
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
I have to admit I had the same reaction.
May '10
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
I'm tense watching Perry, exactly the same sensation as watching W, while Romney is prepared and polished, a rarity for our side and a relief to watch.
Romney's overplaying his hand on Social Security, however. Perry clearly wants to back off in his rhetoric, and Romney should let him and receive the benefits that magnanimity bestows. Policy-wise, they're both in the same place: "It needs to be fixed, but neither of us is willing to say exactly how."
Both these guys are impure in their records and prior positions and require a leap of faith for conservatives. In all likelihood, both will pursue very similar agendas -- reality dictates it.
But at this point, Romney would appear to be the more skilled debater against Obama.
Jun '10
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
What he was aiming for, rather clumsily, was to put Mrs. Pro-life in the position of attacking a pro-life position. Clever, if it had worked. Not so much, otherwise.
Perry has a valid position if he'd defend it. He only has to say this: "I specifically wrote in an opt-out provision in this bill. If I had it to do over again I'd have made it an opt-in. But I make no apologies for erring on the side of caution where the health and lives of young women are concerned, and I strongly resent the implication that I would do this for ANY reason other than that. I consulted with my state medical board prior to signing it and with them came to the conclusion that the health benefits -- both public and private -- far outweighed the risks. You, safe in a Congress and a district where you would never have to face the repercussions of your votes, may not be able to understand that. But that just highlights the difference between us."
I'm pretty sure that would lock him in for the win.
Edited on September 13, 2011 at 6:58amOct '10
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
Romney reminded me tonight why I left the GOP long ago. Troy said it so very well..."establishment guy of uncertain candor". I suspect that if he gets the nomination, I'll do exactly what I did this last time around. I'll swear that I won't vote for the GOP candidate because I'm sick of voting for the lesser of the evils. I'll realize the weekend before the election that one of two people are going to president next and that I have to pick which one. I'll vote for him and feel intense self-loathing for doing so.
I'm really trying hard to see what everyone else does in Perry. I promise that I am. I'm just not feeling it yet. I don't understand how someone who thinks that an illegal immigrant should have an automatic claim on my resources because they want an education is an indication that he would be a good president. This isn't just a simple policy mistake. This goes to his fundamental view of the world and the role of government in our lives.
Oct '10
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
Poor Newt. He's the classic revolutionary. He's wonderful at assessing the problem and seizing power, but doesn't have any idea how to run things once he's taken over. He had his shot back in the 90s, blew it, and now his electoral career is over. For every brilliant answer we get out of him, we get something odd like "Lean Six Sigma" or solving the budget problem by magically solving the waste, fraud, and abuse problem by "modernizing" government.
Bachmann is a sharp person who articulates conservative vaules very well, but I can't get past the fact she has no executive experience at all. It appears that might be the case with the GOP voters given that the top two candidates both have extensive executive experience.
Cain is doing fine in the obligatory "CEO who doesn't understand how government works" role. At least he's not Morry Taylor.
Ron Paul is doing equally fine in reminding people why Americans don't like orthodox libertarianism. His child-like attitude towards foreign policy is cute. Dangerous, but cute.
Rick Santorum continues to be irrelevantly impressive.
Dec '10
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
I agree, the Dream Act-like legislation is hard to parse. But, it's a good economic argument. I would be awfully surprised if any illegal student took the place of kid who is a citizen and genuinely belonged in college. And don't give me some argument about being entitle to college. The amount of money that goes into their education will pay major dividends if you make them a citizen upon graduation and they pay taxes on higher wages for the rest of their life. This circumvents the conversation about why we dump so much money into higher ed to begin with but that's another discussion. Though, the simple solution, is just to make student loan debt dischargeable and the problem will largely correct itself.
Oct '10
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
As far as Huntsman is concerned, I'm with Troy which is always safe intellectual ground to be on. Someone who has such a flagrant lack of self-awareness should absolutely not be entrusted with power. Did we really send this guy over to China to represent us? Who on earth thought that would be a good idea? Oh wait, I remember now...
Edited on September 14, 2011 at 4:18amDec '10
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
Publius: Poor Newt. He's the classic revolutionary. He's wonderful at assessing the problem and seizing power, but doesn't have any idea how to run things once he's taken over. He had his shot back in the 90s, blew it, and now his electoral career is over. For every brilliant answer we get out of him, we get something odd like "Lean Six Sigma" or solving the budget problem by magically solving the waste, fraud, and abuse problem by "modernizing" government.
Sep 13 at 12:01am
I think Newt might be a good choice to simply lock in a room with a red pen and the US legal code and tell him to start slotting for eradication every unnecessary law still on the books since the revolution. He is brilliant, with a strong grasp on history, he would be perfect. As an incentive, you could tell him that for every linear foot of legal garble he clear off the shelves, he would get his very own press conference, and an hour on CSPAN's book TV. That man shines on CSPAN.
Dec '10
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
I balked at this also. I'm still getting up to speed on Perry, and part of that is looking for indications of how reliably conservative he is. A number of red flags have come up in his responses so far -- on illegal immigration, the vaccination issue, the use of executive orders, etc. This is another of them. If he's going to frame his thinking in these terms, I'd rather his principle be that we should err on the side of individual freedom.
May '10
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
Troy Senik
He certainly connects with the tea party but I would be curious to see if connects with the Texas Tea Party that knows more intimately that he's not quite the conservative he claims to be today in 2011.
Dec '10
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
I agree. It's not merely that this particular position is troubling; it's the indication, on this and other issues, that he's not guided by conservative principles.
I desperately want to be convinced that Perry is the real deal, as he seems the only viable alternative to Romney, who I believe is a good man, but not a conservative. I'm still willing and wanting to be persuaded, but so far I'm disappointed.
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
Freeven
I agree. It's not merely that this particular position is troubling; it's the indication, on this and other issues, that he's not guided by conservative principles.
I desperately want to be convinced that Perry is the real deal, as he seems the only viable alternative to Romney, who I believe is a good man, but not a conservative. I'm still willing and wanting to be persuaded, but so far I'm disappointed. · Sep 13 at 6:45am
I'm actually an open borders type person but did anyone else catch how he characterized opposition to education benefits for illegal immigrants? He said something about how people who oppose that do so because of the "sound" of their last name. Come again?
Apr '11
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
I grow tired of legislators taking potshots at executives for the decisions they've made. The toughest decision a legislator ever has to make is whether to vote aye or nay on any given issue - comfortable in the knowledge that, should their view prevail, a majority of their peers have the same one. Rick Perry has more executive experience in public office than the other candidates combined (unless I miscalculate). It was fair for Bachmann to raise the HPV issue, but her self-righteous indignation is overdone. I will also take this opportunity to express a soft spot for Newt. He's sometimes the only one who can elevate the discussion. I'd love him on the ticket, just so I can watch him tear into Obama for the next 14 months - as long as we could then replace him at the last minute with someone electable.
May '10
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
Troy Senik: Duane ~
You're right that they don't necessarily select the candidate ... but I think they will this time. A big factor in McCain getting the nomination in '08 was that much of the conservative vote split between Romney and Huckabee, while a fraction of it (especially national security types) stayed with McCain and the more moderate voters.
The current race is shaping up to be a binary choice between a conservative with extensive executive experience in the nation's largest red state and a moderate/pragmatist/establishment guy of uncertain candor. Hard to see how Perry loses that without a major unforced error.
Perfectly valid view, Troy. My hunch- and that's all it is- is that we'll see the Republican version of the Dems in 2004 when looking at Howard Dean. People who are primary voters but not activists (in other words, not Ricochet-types who live this stuff as we do) will be uncomfortable with Perry's slick-appearing mien and go for a not-particularly-appealing, but safe, alternative. The Dem wing-riders pushed Dean, the center-left picked Kerry (ugh).
My hunch says Romney- or some other person- will prevail, not Perry.
Sep '11
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.
I'm actually an open borders type person but did anyone else catch how he characterized opposition to education benefits for illegal immigrants? He said something about how people who oppose that do so because of the "sound" of their last name. Come again? · Sep 13 at 6:51am
I noticed that. It seems like a defensible position, assuming it's true that there is really a class of people who are illegal but are "on the path to citizenship." But if we've got the GOP presidential nominee to make snide insinuations of bigotry against anyone who disagrees with his opinions on immigration, what do we need liberals for?