A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
Troy Senik ·
Sep 12, 2011 at 7:27pm
Thanks to all the members who joined the live chat for the CNN debate tonight. I have just a few thoughts to add to Peter's below, as I agree with every word he wrote:
- This field is remarkable compared to where we were four years ago at this time. At that point, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Fred Thompson, and Rudy Giuliani all had plausible shots at being competitive for the nomination. It's now clearer than ever that -- barring any truly momentous upheavals -- this is a Perry v. Romney race.
- Further to that point, this is Perry's nomination to lose, not Romney's to win. Perry clearly connects with the base on a visceral level and the audience tonight (as well as the broader GOP primary electorate) seems inclined to regard whatever political sins he has committed as aberrations rather than fundamental flaws (a luxury Romney clearly doesn't enjoy).
- A few notes on the other candidates: Bachmann had one good debate and that fact primarily stemmed from how heavily she was underestimated coming in. Now that the surprise has worn off -- and now that Perry seems like a more presidential embodiment of similar principles -- her hour has likely passed. Newt continues to do what he does best, functioning as a hyper-intelligent and irascible gadfly. And Jon Huntsman should thank heaven for his lack of self-awareness; otherwise, he'd loathe himself as much as virtually everyone else in the Republican Party does.
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May '10
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
Troy Senik
Ahhhhh ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
"[T]his is Perry's nomination to lose, not Romney's to win. Perry clearly connects with the base on a visceral level and the audience tonight (as well as the broader GOP primary electorate) seems inclined to regard whatever political sins he has committed as aberrations rather than fundamental flaws (a luxury Romney clearly doesn't enjoy)."
Beautifully put--Troy has a gift (and it really is a gift) for cutting to the nub of any matter with economy and eloquence--and the most important result of the night.
Jun '10
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
Troy Senik
...And Jon Huntsman should thank heaven for his lack of self-awareness; otherwise, he'd loathe himself as much as virtually everyone else in the Republican Party does.
He was born on 3rd base. That's his biggest problem. He thinks he got there on talent.
Aug '10
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
Huntsman resembles Sheriff Bart in Blazing Saddles without the understanding that he's been setup . And the Waco Kid is nowhere in sight.
Dec '10
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
I think Peter made the point in his post that Perry stumbled after the HPV question. I think this is right, though he addressed it perfectly. I did it. It was a mistake. I would do it differently next time. Bachmann was her cattiest on this issue. No one was force to take the vaccination. It was opt out. Even if you think opt in was better policy, it still wasn't obligated, and I think to his credit, Wolf Blitzer did a good job clarifying, whether the other candidates noticed or not. It's not good showmanship on Perry's part that this tripped him up, but I think that may be a sign that he actually cares about mistakes he makes.
Bachmann going on and on about how "you don't get do-overs as an executive" just made her look naive. Kind of like how a member of congress would look while lecturing an executive. This in my mind ends her chances as of tonight. That kind of talk during a national debate would simply display that she is out of her element.
Perry won, but he needed a closer tonight. He needs a knockout.
Sep '11
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
Romney was informed, presidential, ready to go after Obama rather than his fellow Republicans.
Newt was brilliant, again. Too bad he flamed out by attacking Ryan a few weeks ago.
Perry was just okay. Who gives a damn about innoculations? Should have given Mitt this Texas Hold 'Em lesson: Don't go all in if your hand includes an individual health care mandate.
Cain has a wonderful stage presence and a real sense of humor. Hope he sticks around.
Ron Paul made a damned fool of himself on foreign policy and was finally booed for it, but he was perfect on the question of the uninsured. What an honest reaction from a Doc who's been there. Yes, charities, families, and communities have a role. And yeah, let's dust off those old copies of Hayek and Mises that Reagan left in the White House!
Bachmann seems like a real narcissist. Unlike Romney, who is cordial to all, and Perry, she never smiles at her fellow Republicans. She reinforces the Dems' extremist branding of the Tea Party movement.
Huntsman disgraced himself. Santorum spoke, but he's still invisible.
Jul '10
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
Aw, poor Huntsman. His pop-culture riffs were remarkably leaden.
However, the guy did earn the street cred to pitch them. I'm still looking forward to the moment when he knows all is lost. Because maybe some other candidate will make a populist pitch, and he'll respond: I dropped out of high school to join a rock band. And, yes, it was awesome. If you dig a party, any party, vote for Jon Huntsman.
Feb '11
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
Palaeologus: Aw, poor Huntsman. His pop-culture riffs were remarkably leaden.
However, the guy did earn the street cred to pitch them. I'm still looking forward to the moment when he knows all is lost. Because maybe some other candidate will make a populist pitch, and he'll respond: I dropped out of high school to join a rock band. And, yes, it was awesome. If you dig a party, any party, vote for Jon Huntsman. · Sep 12 at 7:52pm
Did he really mention Kurt Cobain? Papa Toad and I were just finishing up the bath for some little Tadpoles with my laptop streaming the debate next to the tub and I couldn't be sure...
Edited on Sep 12, 2011 at 7:56pmJul '10
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
Mama Toad
Palaeologus: Aw, poor Huntsman. His pop-culture riffs were remarkably leaden.
However, the guy did earn the street cred to pitch them. I'm still looking forward to the moment when he knows all is lost. Because maybe some other candidate will make a populist pitch, and he'll respond: I dropped out of high school to join a rock band. And, yes, it was awesome. If you dig a party, any party, vote for Jon Huntsman. · Sep 12 at 7:52pm
Did he really mention Kurt Cobain? Papa Toad and I were just finishing up the bath for some little Tadpoles with my laptop streaming the debate next to the tub... · Sep 12 at 7:56pm
He did, and he did so clumsily to boot.
Sep '10
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
Its really too bad we are in the present situation with our candidates. We are stuck in a kind of trough between old has-been "me too" Republicans (like Romney), those with enormous amounts of baggage (like Gingrich) and Bush-like types who sound good (like Perry) but have troubling views on critical issues; and the real up and comers in the party who just lack the experience on a national level - e.g., Jindal, Christie, Kasich, Rubio and Ryan.
Given the present state of Obama, an honest conservative with the right credentials would easily win in a landslide of epic proportions. Unfortunately, we have this lull in the talent pool.
Perry, alas, seems to be our only choice at present. His stand on immigration though is troubling, especially his stand on the "Dream Act." A position that I think grates people. I think his Social Security stand, if he properly explains it, could be his winning argument. Seniors did not put Marco Rubio in office to not do anything about Social Security. If he explains himself properly he might be able to forge a juggernaut. If not, is Paul Rahe available? He owes it to the country.
Jun '10
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
Huntsman's shot at Perry over border security was asinine. Perry said he would secure the border, just not with a meaningless fence across stretches of impassable tex/mex border. Bachmann's shot about the $5000 merck contribution was also a low-blow.
But, Perry did not get better in the last two days, but he will. I just wish we would not keep getting the same questions debate to debate. move on. new questions, please.
May '10
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
Peter - for your post - Let me fix that picture for you.
May '10
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
Peter Robinson: "[T]his is Perry's nomination to lose, not Romney's to win. Perry clearly connects with the base on a visceral level and the audience tonight (as well as the broader GOP primary electorate) .................
Beautifully put--Troy has a gift (and it really is a gift) for cutting to the nub of any matter with economy and eloquence--and the most important result of the night. · Sep 12 at 7:38pm
Romney, for a variety of reasons, is a lousy candidate in a populist race (and maybe just generally lousy, as Jonathan Last claims).
I am simply not sure how this will play out when the non-zealous crowd joins the selection process. In 2008 McCain had no connection with "the base"; "the base" apparently doesn't necessarily select the candidate.
As I've said before, Perry's biggest problem is going to be getting the Texas brand off of him among the swing voters- twang, phrases, boots, the whole enchilada. Our base doesn't elect anybody. LBJ, under very unusual circumstances, was the last blatant Texan to win nationally.
And Bachmann is exactly where she was headed from day 1, despite all the gushing heard here.
Jun '10
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
If Santorum has done anything positive by running it was being able to show how idiotic Ron Paul is on the 9/11 attack. Perry was smart to respond to the Afghanistan issue by essentially saying it's just time to bring the troops home. There is real burn out in military families for those who have served multiple deployments.
But what frustrates me is that foreign policy still isn't discussed in any substantive way to get past Ron Paul's naive America-first isolationism. The Arab Spring is still a mercurial situation that could go any direction especially given the take over of Israel's embassy in Cairo; Europe is a powder keg; China has way too much influence around the globe; Venezuela needs a comeuppance; and we need to dismantle the regime in Iran...but all that ever seems to be discussed is Paul's plan to bring troops around the world home as a way to save money. Putting America's head in the sand in not an option.
I want to see if Perry and Romney have the chops for foreign policy. I know Newt has but he's not going to be the nominee.
May '11
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
Beasley: Bachmann was her cattiest on this issue. No one was force to take the vaccination. It was opt out. Even if you think opt in was better policy, it still wasn't obligated, and I think to his credit, Wolf Blitzer did a good job clarifying, whether the other candidates noticed or not. It's not good showmanship on Perry's part that this tripped him up, but I think that may be a sign that he actually cares about mistakes he makes.
Bachmann going on and on about how "you don't get do-overs as an executive" just made her look naive. Kind of like how a member of congress would look while lecturing an executive. This in my mind ends her chances as of tonight. That kind of talk during a national debate would simply display that she is out of her element.
Exactly, she does have a grating way of going on with cheap shots like this. She was even worse in the post-debate interview on CNN talking about forcing a 'government injection' on little girls, something about feeling sorry for these innocent little girls etc It was over the top.
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
etoiledunord
Troy Senik
...And Jon Huntsman should thank heaven for his lack of self-awareness; otherwise, he'd loathe himself as much as virtually everyone else in the Republican Party does.
He was born on 3rd base. That's his biggest problem. He thinks he got there on talent. · Sep 12 at 7:42pm
Couldn't agree more. A very, very good way to put it.
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
Palaeo ~
There were a lot of funny lines in the chat tonight, but this one takes the cake. You win the Senik primary.
Palaeologus: Aw, poor Huntsman. His pop-culture riffs were remarkably leaden.
However, the guy did earn the street cred to pitch them. I'm still looking forward to the moment when he knows all is lost. Because maybe some other candidate will make a populist pitch, and he'll respond: I dropped out of high school to join a rock band. And, yes, it was awesome. If you dig a party, any party, vote for Jon Huntsman. · Sep 12 at 7:52pm
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
Duane ~
You're right that they don't necessarily select the candidate ... but I think they will this time. A big factor in McCain getting the nomination in '08 was that much of the conservative vote split between Romney and Huckabee, while a fraction of it (especially national security types) stayed with McCain and the more moderate voters.
The current race is shaping up to be a binary choice between a conservative with extensive executive experience in the nation's largest red state and a moderate/pragmatist/establishment guy of uncertain candor. Hard to see how Perry loses that without a major unforced error.
Duane Oyen
I am simply not sure how this will play out when the non-zealous crowd joins the selection process. In 2008 McCain had no connection with "the base"; "the base" apparently doesn't necessarily select the candidate.
As I've said before, Perry's biggest problem is going to be getting the Texas brand off of him among the swing voters- twang, phrases, boots, the whole enchilada. Our base doesn't elect anybody. LBJ, under very unusual circumstances, was the last blatant Texan to win nationally.
· Sep 12 at 8:11pm
Sep '10
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
Troy Senik: Palaeo ~
There were a lot of funny lines in the chat tonight, but this one takes the cake. You win the Senik primary.
Palaeologus: Aw, poor Huntsman. His pop-culture riffs were remarkably leaden.
However, the guy did earn the street cred to pitch them. I'm still looking forward to the moment when he knows all is lost. Because maybe some other candidate will make a populist pitch, and he'll respond: I dropped out of high school to join a rock band. And, yes, it was awesome. If you dig a party, any party, vote for Jon Huntsman. · Sep 12 at 7:52pm
Sep 12 at 8:27pm
I think he'll finish the pitch with a Howard Dean scream and then bite the head off a bat Ozzy Ozborne style, while announcing in a half drunken stupor that he's the "prince of flippin' darkness" and ridin' off into the sunset on the Huntsman Harley.
Aug '10
Re: A Few More Thoughts on the Debate
Aside from all the "born on whatever base jokes", consider that Romney probably doesn't think he was born at all.....that's way too mortal .