A Farewell to Senator Blanche Lincoln
The latest polls have the Democrat from Arkansas down by double-digits (RealClearPolitics has the most recent numbers aggregated here). Rasmussen has John Boozman, Lincoln's Republican challenger, up by 18 points; Reuters has him up by 14 points; and Talk Business has him in the lead by 27.
Lincoln's numbers are consistently falling below 40% in the polls, and if she drops below 35% on election day, she could set the record for the lowest re-elect in history. According to RCP:
Only six incumbent senators have seen their re-elects drop below 40 percent of the two-party vote since we began directly electing senators. Given the polling we’ve seen recently, Lincoln stands a good chance of becoming number seven. She might even become the recordholder if she falls below 35 percent (set in 1932 by Sen. Wesley L. Jones of Washington). You never want to bet against an incumbent, but it is hard to see how Lincoln pulls this one out.
Suzi Parker, over at Politics Daily, reminds us of why Lincoln is in trouble:
On the surface, it appeared that Lincoln, a seasoned, victorious veteran of four federal campaigns, had adroitly threaded the political needle in preparation for re-election. Since becoming a senator in 1998, she has played the role of independent Blue Dog centrist, often voting against her party to curry favor among conservative Democrats and independent voters back home.
Lincoln found herself in the controversial waters of the health care overhaul, an issue that she vacillated on but supported in the end. In the spring, she drew two primary opponents and engaged in a bloody battle that she survived in a June run-off.
Dark clouds gathered around Lincoln exactly at the same time that the national Tea Party and Republican rabble-rousing made some inroads in Arkansas, which has been a predominantly Democratic state since the Reconstruction era.
The Republican tide that washed over the South in the 1980s and '90s may finally be rolling into Arkansas.
Even though Lincoln is often painted as a conservative Democrat, she has voted with her party 83.1% of the time, which is why she has alienated the conservative and independent voters in her state. Her voting record includes: voting for ObamaCare, voting to expand and reauthorize SCHIP, and voting for the stimulus.
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Comments :
Jun '10
Re: A Farewell to Senator Blanche Lincoln
Hey Emily, feeling lonesome? Your post is very well-crafted but not likely to generate much discussion because Senator Lincoln has been h-i-s-t-o-r-y for weeks now. Maybe a better headline would have been Requiem for a Lightweight.