A Dragutin Moment
[Editor's Note from Rob Long: Melissa O'Sullivan, aside from being lovely and intelligent, is also the wife of John O'Sullivan, editor, journalist and fellow National Review contributor. Melissa sent me this email, which I insisted she post here on Ricochet. But she had to become a member first! Please welcome her if you're a member. And if you aren't, now is the perfect time to join Melissa and the rest of us!]
September 17, 2012
UPDATE: U.S. officials have told The New York Times and CNN that the deadly consulate attack in Benghazi, Libya, which killed U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens, may have been planned in advance. According to the CNN report, "attackers used the protest outside the consulate as a diversion," though sources "could not say whether the attacker instigated the protest or merely took advantage of it.”
Ambassador Chris Stevens, 52, died as he and a group of embassy employees went to the consulate to try to evacuate staff as a crowd of hundreds attacked the consulate Tuesday evening, many of them firing machine-guns and rocket-propelled grenades -- Huffington Post, Sept. 12 and updated Sept. 13
Having spent a few decades in the contract security business, dealing with both private sector and federal government security, it’s been a painful few days, listening to governmental officials and reading the commentary on the tragic events unfolding in the Middle East. It is also disheartening that our mainstream media were more intent on playing “gotcha” with Romney then asking the Obama Administration officials why we would send Ambassador Stevens to evacuate personnel from a consulate located in a region that had been a war-zone mere months ago, and was still hugely unsettled, on 9-11??? Why was our top man in Libya part of an evac team? There is not a fifth rate Facility Security Officer working in Huntsville, Alabama who would have constructed a scenario that left our U. S. Ambassador so exposed. Al Qaeda targeted moderate imams in the early dates of Iraqi reconstruction efforts, so of course Ambassador Stevens would be a target, for his very effectiveness in helping the newly placed pro-Western government in Libya.
This is a failure, pure and simple of this Administration at all levels. The foreign policy, the forward deployment of a consulate in a volatile region, a facility that does not have the necessary security infrastructure reflective of that volatile environment, and an undermanned security staff to provide protection.
This Administration is exhibiting the same sort of naivete that the Bush Administration exhibited and was roundly criticized for in thinking that we would be viewed as “liberators” in Iraq and Afghanistan and flowers would be thrown at our feet. Or the clumsiness of Bremmer in disbanding the Iraqi security/police force before an adequate substitute had been stood up.
Hillary Clinton, our Secretary of State apologizes for a movie and feeds the narrative that a film no one has seen or heard of is the cause of this attack and conflagration. It is doubled down on by our Ambassador to the U. N., Susan Rice, who says there was “no actionable intelligence” to indicate that the attack was premeditated-the movie made them do it!
Then there is our own revered and respected Peggy Noonan, in an article entitled "The Age of the Would be Princips" who buys into the same theory that all this is the result of an effrontery to the Prophet Muhammad made in an obscure film:
Gavrilo Pricip of course was the assassin who killed the Archduke Franz Ferdinand...All we know is how it did begin, with one young man and a gun....Now in the age of technology, with everything disseminated everywhere instantly, it isn’t one man with a gun but one man with a camera, or a laptop, or a phone.
Pace, Peggy, but unfortunately, it’s not a “Pricip Moment” but a “Dragutin Moment.” Dragutin was the head of Serbian military intelligence who planned the assassination, which consisted of a six-man team. Serbia had gained their independence from the old Ottoman Empire and were outraged at the annexation of Bosnia by the Austro-Hungarian empire, to which the Archduke was the heir-apparent. Or maybe it’s a “Wilhelm II Moment”, ally of the Austro-Hungarians, whose German military (a Germany recently united, due to previous wars engineered by Bismarck) was itching for a war with Russia and their old enemy France. As the great historian Robert Conquest wrote, “The long-held ideas that World War I came about through accidental concatenations, or that it was due to commercial rivalries, has been abandoned by most historians, and it is now clear enough that the Kaiser’s regime was inherently headed for war.” Echoing this is historian Niall Ferguson, who wrote, “Historians nowadays have no difficulty tracing the origins of the First World War back a decade or more.”
The point is, the tender had been laid, the fuse carefully constructed and all that was required was the match of the assassination for the agitprop machinery to exploit.
Coming back to our present time, it is a much more likely scenario that Al Queda, now headed by Egyptian born Ayman al-Zawahiri, working with the various chapters of the organization spread throughout the Maghreb, engineered both the protests in Egypt and the attack in Libya which killed Ambassador Stevens and three others. Who knows? It could be a collaborative effort with the Muslim Brotherhood. After all, they both have the same goal, albeit on a different time frame.
It’s obvious we’ve lost much influence in the area. All you have to do is look at the first foreign trip made by the newly elected President Morsi to that great bastion of freedom, China, to know how little respect we have in Egypt. In addition to the financial commitments made to Egypt, China has been busy doing similar deals in Pakistan, Iraq, and many African nations. In addition to securing mineral and energy rights, China surely has its eye on gaining control of the Suez Canal, just as it managed to end up controlling the Panama Canal in our own hemisphere.
We know Al Queda is patient and thinks long term. We need to be analyzing the events of the past 10 years. We were so hung up on the “legitimacy” issue in Iraq that instead of declaring victory, installing someone and getting the hell out, we now have the spectacle of Iran looking to be the big winner there. Wasn’t that the objection to Chalabi? That he was too close to Iran?
And what of Afghanistan? Shortly after Obama’s inauguration, I met a female MP from Afghanistan. She told me how the Taliban had killed her father and brothers and she wanted to know if the U. S. was going to abandon them. I replied, “In my opinion, all bets are off and if I were you, I’d invest in asymmetrical warfare capability.” Today, we have announced our date of departure and are negotiating with the “moderate” Taliban. I’ve wondered how that MP is fairing.
Before we toppled Saddam, I was at a party of Military Attaches in a European capital and two of the Egyptian Officers told me they didn’t have a problem with Saddam and asked why we wanted to upend the apple cart, so to speak. In Muslim Brotherhood-led Egypt, with a sidelined military, I wonder how they are faring. We took out the despots and -- just like in Pakistan where we insisted on elections too soon, resulting in the assassination of moderate Benazir Bhutto -- the radicals are in charge.
Uwe Siemon-Netto, prominent German journalist and friend reported how the North Vietnamese and the Vietcong won the “hearts and minds” of the rural population ....
"Dangling from the trees and poles in the village square were the village chief, his wife, and their twelve children, the males, including a baby, with their genitals cut off and stuffed into their mouths, the females with their breasts cut off." The Vietcong had ordered everyone in the village to witness the execution. "They started with the baby and then slowly worked their way up to the elder children, to the wife, and finally to the chief himself. ... It was all done very coolly, as much an act of war as firing an anti-aircraft gun." He noted that this was no isolated case: "It became routine .... Because it became routine to us, we didn't report it over and over again. We reported the unusual, like My Lai."
For all we know, some of this may be involved in the stories of Libyans directing the terrorists to our Ambassador and his team, or our soldiers being fired on by Afghan soldiers. We don’t know, but we do know that we will always be outclassed in this department. If I’m some villager and the U. S. is offering me schools, with a bug-out date in sight, and the enemy is offering me torture and death if I cooperate, I know who’s going to own my heart and mind. In the future, unless we are willing to commit to a 50-year project, like we did in Japan and Germany in the wake of World War II, we should do like the French, make “mou-mou” sympathetic mutterings about human rights and cut a business deal with whoever is in power in these third world countries and don’t even think about regime change or democracy projects.
Everyone talks of the American Century being over, and of the nation being in its waning days. That may be, but for the moment we are still a great power, both economically and militarily. We have peoples and assets to protect. Although it won’t be pleasant, we need to take a hard look in the direction the evidence leads in order to formulate a steady, consistent foreign policy to guide our nation through this perilous time in history. To think we must avoid free speech that might disturb the little darlings is naive and dangerous, because the outrage machinery won’t stop there.
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May '10
Re: A Dragutin Moment
Welcome!
I too, and in the "he is our son of a bitch" camp.
Jul '12
Re: A Dragutin Moment
THE Mrs. O'Suillivan. Welcome. I would love to eavesdrop on dinner conversation between you and your husband. I thought Ms. Noonan really "jumped the shark" on her comparing some YouTube video with Pricip. This line from Ms. Noonan should send shivers down anybody who believes in free speech:
We are going to have to think about antidotes to and answers for the new Principism. Because it's not going to go away.
Aug '10
Re: A Dragutin Moment
Welcome Melissa, I think I remember telling you once that Ricochet was a fantastic site, glad to see you finally made it. And coming in at the top !
Does it appear that Realpolitik hasn't been a factor in American decision making since they changed the name of the War Department and formed the CIA in 47 ? Jeane Kirkpatrick tried to resurrect it , Kissinger too, but something keeps getting in the way ? Wilsonian progressivism perhaps ?
Apr '11
Re: A Dragutin Moment
Wow.....interesting analysis. Wonder when this will break out in the MSM. Surely they have questions that remain unanswered in the adminstation's version. Then maybe I am giving them too much credit.
And welcome
Aug '10
Re: A Dragutin Moment
Unfortunately too many Americans would rather be distracted by celebrity and sport than think about the harsh realities of our pending economic meltdown or the horrors of radical Islam.
I mean, if we are just nice to people and don't judge them we'll all be fine, right?
May '11
Re: A Dragutin Moment
Welcome to Ricochet, Melissa! Thank you for a great initial post. Now keep up the good work.
I have spoken to several people about the Mid-East goings on since last Tuesday. I was absolutely flabbergasted that they thought the riots were spontaneous based on a YouTube movie. One thing I truly believe: No riots are spontaneous in the Mid-East...ever!
Feb '11
Re: A Dragutin Moment
Moderate Benazir Bhutto? LOL! More like say one thing to Americans and another to Pakistanis Bhutto. Or is that the definition of moderate?
It isn't a matter of "their" SOBs and "our" SOBs. It's a matter of SOBs and how we play them off against one another, so the more dead SOBs there are, the better. Reagan did that beautifully with Iran and Iraq. We had the makings of that again if Bush hadn't had the bright idea of turning Iraq into a country that is too weak to resist Iran.
The mess we are in is partly Obama's fault. But it is even more George Bush's fault.
May '10
Re: A Dragutin Moment
Welcome aboard. Though, I must say, any friend of Rob's is highly suspect.
The heart of our foreign policy should be finding new allies and helping old allies to shape up. Our decline is already fixed, so we should prepare for it. In addition to reflections of our own problems, the old leadership of our European friends is being weakened by demographic trends, if Steyn is correct. How much longer will Britain be reliable? Canada and Australia seem safer bets, but perhaps we should look more toward Asia.
Edited on September 18, 2012 at 3:27amOct '10
Re: A Dragutin Moment
DELIGHTED you are here, Melissa. A terrific, short history lesson. And a pointed, sensible prescription for going forward.
Thank you, and please return often.
Sep '10
Re: A Dragutin Moment
I am delighted to read the actual news and analysis here on Ricochet while Pravda on the Hudson and Attila in Atlanta take turns trading the vapors.
MSM delenda est
Apr '12
Re: A Dragutin Moment
Good to have you here.
Your descriptiion of violence inflicted on villagers is not discussed often. This violence of tbe state is why people leave their homeland and move to the West. I am looking forward to reading more.
Jul '10
Re: A Dragutin Moment
Indaba: Good to have you here.
Your descriptiion of violence inflicted on villagers is not discussed often. This violence of tbe state is why people leave their homeland and move to the West. I am looking forward to reading more. · in 0 minutes
Unfortunately our left has consistently failed to speak to these kinds of atrocities. Check the history of the "conquest" of Hue City. The blatant murders of whole families for simply being government workers was horrendous. Yet there was no coverage of this vital fact. Nor any promulgation of any of the better behaviors of our Vietnamese allies, if one may attach such a term to those we grossly betrayed.
America has a long and inglorious history of not standing by people who have been our allies and deserve better from us.
Conversely, the toughness and focus of our soldiers in WWII has not been supported since. We have failed to fulfill our duty in many places around the world, and "friends" - stupid enough to throw in with us - have died.
How dishonourable.
Sep '12
Re: A Dragutin Moment
Thanks, everyone for your great comments and taking time out to read my stuff! I'll rethink that "moderate" moniker. Interestingly enough, was seated at table w/ Ms. Bhuto and asked why her military had been so infiltrated by the radicals as the military is normally a force for modernity. Unfortunately, I don't think she had an answer.
Melissa
Dec '10
Re: A Dragutin Moment
Welcome, Melissa. What a way to air out your new Ricochet membership! Thanks for getting "skin in the game" (ask Rob!).
As for all this nation-building and intrigue, at what point do we just turn some of these radicalized locales into a flat surface, à la Dresden & what we would've done to Tokyo had they not surrendered? I'm not talking about this from a red-neck, America-only perspective. Some regimes (NVA is a perfect example, as we're the Khmer Rouge) are irredeemable and no amount of diplomacy will solve this, no matter how much we believe in "The Peace Process".
Put another way, at what point do we have enough fortitude to say not, "We're done!" but "You're done!"?
Oct '10
Re: A Dragutin Moment
Forgive my not seeing the forest for the trees but this tree needs to be cut down:
"Then there is our own revered and respected Peggy Noonan..."
From what I can tell, conservatives no longer revere or respect Ms. Noonan (and haven't since, oh, roundabout November 2008). That's certainly the case with THIS conservative, anyway.
Nov '10
Re: A Dragutin Moment
Ma'am, I am delighted to have you among us. I have read your husband's work through the years whenever and wherever I have found it and I look forward to hearing more from you, a great deal more.
I am confused about the events of the night when Ambassador Stephens was murdered and have yet to locate a clear statement of how the operation was conducted. It is puzzling to me that an evacuation was planned unless there was some reason to worry about an attack.
Couple that planned evacuation with the curious message from one of the men to his internet game cohorts about photographs being taken of the consulate and his concern about whether they were about to be attacked, and it certainly sounds to me like at least some in the compound had a heightened awareness of impending danger.
Nor can I understand how the ambassador was separated from the main body or consulate personnel.
Are the consulate personnel armed? And if they are, with what? Sidearms are poor proof against RPG's.
Obviously, you know a great deal about this sort or thing and I should love to know your information and thoughts.
Jul '12
Re: A Dragutin Moment
Would you venture an answer to your question regarding why the Ambassador would be part of a charge against a "crowd of hundreds"... "many of them firing machine-guns and rocket-propelled grenades" and would have arrived in a non-armored vehicle?
Isn't he the same Ambassador who arrived in the country originally aboard a cargo ship? I wonder what the cargo was?
He doesn't sound like our run-of-the-mill Ambassador, does he?
Sep '12
Re: A Dragutin Moment
Okay, I'm venturing. All security operations are different. At the Savannah River site where nuclear fissionable material is stored, it a paramilitary site. I would imagine that most embassies would have nothing more than sidearms or possibly something more high powered, as the assumption is that the host country controls security outside your perimeter. But this was no ordinary environment. I would think a "Risk Assessment/Threat Assessment" report by a State Department Security official must be in the file drawer somewhere. It would be interesting to see what was recommended and what was actually implemented. I am relying on Huffpost story re the report that Ambassador Stevens was going to evacuate the personnel there in Benghazi. It just seems odd...maybe he felt his presence was necessary to execute the safe evacuation of his consulate team, and maybe there was no armoured vehicle to be had. I don't have a prob with his arrival on a cargo ship-not familiar with that fact-maybe that was the most expeditious way to get there. By all accounts, he was a very talented Ambassador and his loss is a tragedy for our Nation.
Sep '12
Re: A Dragutin Moment
I have to say I really like the fact that there's an ad for a fabulous bag from Bergdorf's next to my face! Maybe John will take the hint!
Jul '12
Re: A Dragutin Moment
Welcome! I'm glad you debunked the Princip argument. The only useful comparison is exactly the opposite that Noonan made: just as Gavrilo Princip's act was not the actual cause for war, this video no one has seen is not the cause of these events.This blindness will cost us dearly, I'm afraid.