A Data Point to Support my Romney-as-Kerry Thesis
Troy Senik, Ed. ·
January 27, 2012 at 10:47pm
From First Read:
The primary has done damage to Romney. He cannot afford a long primary. If this thing goes to June, that would be very problematic. He’s already in a bad position. George W. Bush, John McCain, and Bob Dole were all in primary fights and ALL were a net-POSITIVE at this time in the election cycle. In the past 20 years in the poll, no one who went on to be the major party nominee of either party with a net-negative at this point – except John Kerry, and we all know how that turned out. Clearly, Romney is looking like he’s getting his momentum back, but he has fundamental problems for the general.
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Dec '10
Re: A Data Point to Support my Romney-as-Kerry Thesis
I happen to believe that Romney, Gingrich and Santorum are all electable against Obama. But Romney has as many hurdles to overcome to beat Obama as do Gingrich or Santorum. It won't be easy for any of them.
Re: A Data Point to Support my Romney-as-Kerry Thesis
I agree with Stuart. As for the extended struggle, it will do Romney good if it brings out in him what he showed last night.
Nov '11
Re: A Data Point to Support my Romney-as-Kerry Thesis
At least we now know he will not go down without a fight -- and that he is a fiercer fighter than many of us gave him credit for.
Feb '11
Re: A Data Point to Support my Romney-as-Kerry Thesis
The article and the subsequent one on the Republican branding were very interesting. I think one of the problems with this cycle is the lack of attention the local races are receiving in the endless trench warfare that is this primary (which while it is still early, it seems like this battle has been raging since 2008). I wonder if we are not leaving a gap in our battle plans, so that even if we gain the Presidency we lose seats in the house and at best maintain our numbers in the Senate. But perhaps it is still early for enough for those contests to develop in a healthy manner. I just wonder if any of the candidates will have coattails, let alone long ones.
I also wonder if Newt can rally yet again, I thought his self-exposure, winging it attitude, and subsequent thrashing by Romney was pretty devastating last night, and I was greatly cheered by the rise of Santorum, even if he still has much room for improvement in all departments.
Sep '10
Re: A Data Point to Support my Romney-as-Kerry Thesis
Romney would have been roadkill in the general up until last night's debate. The primary was necessary and it won't be easy for whoever gets the nomination.
Feb '11
Re: A Data Point to Support my Romney-as-Kerry Thesis
Agreed, I had dreaded a Romney candidacy for that reason, and have been little enough impressed by any of the candidates, but I thought Romney and Santorum did some wonderful things last night. Although, Romney still has a long way to go to earn my full throated support (he just seems so likely to be another Dole or at best a GWB - long on promises, short on results, Obama with organization and ma non troppo), but he almost had me in his camp until the Obama/Romney Care gambit revealed his glass jaw.
Feb '11
Re: A Data Point to Support my Romney-as-Kerry Thesis
Indeed, I think the world of ugly that is headed toward our candidate, whoever he is, will be unbelievable. I hope, at the least, that this brutal primary will go a long way toward preparing our candidate for the general slug-fest.
Aug '10
Re: A Data Point to Support my Romney-as-Kerry Thesis
Might I remind everyone that but for a few thousand votes in Ohio John Kerry would've beaten Bush
May '10
Re: A Data Point to Support my Romney-as-Kerry Thesis
We might as well pack it in, I guess.
Sep '10
Re: A Data Point to Support my Romney-as-Kerry Thesis
The counter data point to your thesis Troy would be that 3 different primaries have had 3 different winners, so Republicans are taking longer to coalesce around their eventual winner.
May '10
Re: A Data Point to Support my Romney-as-Kerry Thesis
While I am relieved that Romney has come to life this week, the idea that he didn't have "fight" in him is absurd. He has accomplished way too much, in too many different realms not to. Was he tired in SC? Did he use SC as kind of phase I of a rope-a-dope strategy? Was it just his new debate coach? He is going to win the nomination.
I noticed yesterday that the Romney Team has adopted "Occupy" tactics: high-level endorsers showed up at a Newt event. When Obama refuses to debate Romney (Hugh Hewitt thinks he won't, or offer one debate), I hope this tactic is deployed again.
May '10
Re: A Data Point to Support my Romney-as-Kerry Thesis
The debates are worthless as long as they are "moderated" by someone from the mainstream press. We lose when we play their game with their rules.
Apr '11
Re: A Data Point to Support my Romney-as-Kerry Thesis
He can't afford a long primary against Newt. A long primary against Santorum would be fine, though.
Santorum won't make anti-capitalist attacks or race bait or come out with "right wing social engineering" claims. There'd be no personal scandals, no embarrassingly freaked out party establishment, no self-comparisons to legendary heroes. There'd be a long and forceful discussion of conservative policy and priorities, hard work done in raising funds and building GOTV campaigns which would carry over to the general. There'd be news cycles about attacks on Obama and blue collar workers sucked into the party. Both candidates would be improved (and Paul seems to have been improving lately, too).
Plus, Santorum, by far the most popular candidate in the race at the moment, could well turn out to be our candidate. If he did outperform like that, it'd probably be because he was a better candidate, or Mitt a worse candidate than we thought. As a capitalist, I'd rather see the candidate who turns out to be better be sent on than the candidate I personally believe to be better.
Nov '11
Re: A Data Point to Support my Romney-as-Kerry Thesis
James Of England: He can't afford a long primary against Newt. A long primary against Santorum would be fine, though.
Santorum won't make anti-capitalist attacks or race bait or come out with "right wing social engineering" claims. There'd be no personal scandals, no embarrassingly freaked out party establishment, no self-comparisons to legendary heroes. There'd be a long and forceful discussion of conservative policy and priorities, hard work done in raising funds and building GOTV campaigns which would carry over to the general. There'd be news cycles about attacks on Obama and blue collar workers sucked into the party. Both candidates would be improved (and Paul seems to have been improving lately, too)
Exactly. That would be a primary fight worth having. It's a pity we didn't have yesterday's debate last week.
Gingrich has sharpened Romney's political skills, but he's done a lot of damage in the process.
Dec '10
Re: A Data Point to Support my Romney-as-Kerry Thesis
I still find this comparison highly distasteful, Troy. My respect level for you is dropping.
Aug '10
Re: A Data Point to Support my Romney-as-Kerry Thesis
Distasteful -- but valid.
May '10
Re: A Data Point to Support my Romney-as-Kerry Thesis
Debate dates and locations have already been announced. Obama could cancel some, but that would look "chicken" considering his approval ratings.
One other thing...many talk about how viciously the Obama camp will attack Mitt. While they will be aggressive, it can't be as all out as we fear: his job approval ratings are underwater, but his personal approval rating is still positive. He has to be careful not to jeopardize that. It's not so easy to demonize the Boy Scout Mitt (Newt is learning Mitt has claws) as it was to characterize Old Man McCain, UBetcha Sarah, or Newtclear Newt.
If Mitt can add Marco to the ticket, the racial aspect takes away some of Barry's leverage as well. Obama's people know this, which is why naked smear jobs like the failed Reuters articles are being written now.
Dec '10
Re: A Data Point to Support my Romney-as-Kerry Thesis
One thing that this debate confirmed is that Romney has an Achilles' heel, one which Rick Santorum has exploited in at least three of the last four debates. Santorum is able to bait Romney, get him to make a statement of fact, and then tear into that statement by revealing it to be false, misleading or contradictory to Romney's record. He then keeps tearing into Romney and drives him completely off-balance. It is especially telling that even after Romney had by most accounts a good hour of aggressively controlling the debate, Santorum was able to go right for his weakness. If somehow it develops into a Romney-Santorum race, Rick has a good chance of taking Romney apart in future debates, unless Mitt learns how to avoid taking the bait.
Dec '10
Re: A Data Point to Support my Romney-as-Kerry Thesis
I have to laugh at the suggestion that Swiss (Account) Mitt will be any more difficult to demonize than the genuine war hero John McCain. The Democrats have set the table for demonizing Romney with each aspect of their class warfare strategy.
Jun '10
Re: A Data Point to Support my Romney-as-Kerry Thesis
I think analogies like this don't make any sense at all. Kerry was up against an extremely unpopular incumbent, couldn't possibly have had more support from his own party, and still blew it, because he was a terrible candidate. Full stop.