A Confident Prediction
I confidently predict that Daniel Kahneman's new book, Don't Blink, The Hazards of Confidence, will be a smash bestseller.
The confidence we experience as we make a judgment is not a reasoned evaluation of the probability that it is right. Confidence is a feeling, one determined mostly by the coherence of the story and by the ease with which it comes to mind, even when the evidence for the story is sparse and unreliable. The bias toward coherence favors overconfidence. An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.
Why do I predict it? Because everyone absolutely loves hearing that people who sound confident don't really know what they're talking about, especially from someone who says this very confidently.
You don't have to trust me on this. Just check the bestseller list in a few weeks' time.
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Nov '10
Re: A Confident Prediction
"Confidence is a feeling"
Since when has stating the obvious been worthy of a Nobel Prize? Then again, I suppose it's better than giving it to people like Al Gore for stating the ridiculous.
Edited on Oct 22, 2011 at 9:28amApr '11
Re: A Confident Prediction
Ms. Berlinski, a correction...
http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374275637
Jun '10
Re: A Confident Prediction
Claire: You've hit on something that's bugged me my whole career (corporate and in a big law firm). I've run into several of the kind of self-confident hucksters you describe. The worst I've seen are the ones in positions of power, who have the power to launch armies on a project: most of the worker bees return on their shields, the business loses big bucks, and Mr. Big Idea blames the his minions for not doing it right.
It is a universal truth that failure is never the fault of the over-confident. Either the implementers screwed up or it was sabotaged.
Richard Weaver created a great description for the kind of person who confidently drives forward with few facts but overweening confidence: "hysterical optimists."
Edited on Oct 22, 2011 at 9:36amJan '11
Re: A Confident Prediction
Confidence depends on coherence, and coherence is a fundamental tool in knowledge. The problem is that coherence doesn't depend on reality. It depends on your previous experience, which may or not be accurate. It also depends on assumptions passed to you through the culture, over which you have limited control.
If you were taught from an early age that the earth is stationary, and you have no hard evidence to the contrary, any statement about earth's "orbit" would be incoherent.
Frequently, the certainty with which cognoscenti and elites express judgment against new ideas is just a measure of their need to be considered part of the elite.
Re: A Confident Prediction
Viator: Ms. Berlinski, a correction...
http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374275637 · Oct 22 at 9:30am
Ah. Yes. Well, I confidently predict it will be a bestseller, whatever it's called.
May '10
Re: A Confident Prediction
I love the quote Claire used. I experience this daily in the corporate world.
The confidence we experience as we make a judgment is not a reasoned evaluation of the probability that it is right. Confidence is a feeling, one determined mostly by the coherence of the story and by the ease with which it comes to mind, even when the evidence for the story is sparse and unreliable. The bias toward coherence favors overconfidence. An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.
Edited on Oct 22, 2011 at 10:03amSep '10
Re: A Confident Prediction
Ms. Berlinski, right idea, different author:
The wave of the future is Lie Spotting
Test you Lie Q
Aug '11
Re: A Confident Prediction
It is without a doubt true that Claire's post itself, with its erudition and style, along with her readership on this esteemed site, will alone serve to launch the book into the upper single digits at Amazon and the NYT. Impressive indeed!
Edited on Oct 22, 2011 at 10:24amSep '10
Re: A Confident Prediction
Pseudo—I just last night watched the TED lecture on liespotting! Which is why I ended up scoring 11 out of 18 on the test (competent). Very intriguing!
Pseudodionysius: Ms. Berlinski, right idea, different author:
The wave of the future is Lie Spotting
Test you Lie Q · Oct 22 at 10:22am
Sep '10
Re: A Confident Prediction
Leslie Watkins: Pseudo—I just last night watched the TED lecture on liespotting! Which is why I ended up scoring 11 out of 18 on the test (competent). Very intriguing!
Pseudodionysius: Ms. Berlinski, right idea, different author:
The wave of the future is Lie Spotting
Test you Lie Q · Oct 22 at 10:22am
Oct 22 at 10:33am
If I didn't say I was pleased, I would be lying.
Jan '11
Re: A Confident Prediction
I followed the link. Pamela Meyer, the purveyor (I guess) of the website is a "Certified Fraud Examiner." Certified by who? Where have these truth-detectors been all my life when I needed them? Think of the cars I wouldn't have bought!
She also claims that there is currently a "deception epidemic." I didn't realize that it was contagious. I suppose, then, that I could blame my recent lies on having caught a deception bug. Hey, honey, it wasn't me ... someone sneezed deception on me in the elevator.
Count me out. I'm not sure I want to live in a world where everyone immediately has to be honest about how they feel about me. I'm more comfortable living in this world where the truth can remain a mystery.
Jul '10
Re: A Confident Prediction
Caroline: I love the quote Claire used. I experience this daily in the corporate world.
... An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.
How about a certain clique of leading politicians for whom no outcome is allowed to challenge their assumptions on good governance.
Aug '10
Re: A Confident Prediction
Isn't this just an expansion of Chapter 6 of Nassim Taleb's The Black Swan, titled "The Narrative Fallacy"? (Plus some of Chapter 10, "The Scandal of Prediction", from what I've seen of the other quotes.)
Sep '10
Re: A Confident Prediction
Good points, KC. You might find the TED lecture more enlightening than the Amazon.com blurb. But maybe not. I for one want more tools to recognize actual deceit (i.e., awareness of a lie in the mind of the liar) because our society has abandoned objective measures and views lying as just another point of view. I'm not wanting the tool to know if someone likes me or not. What would be helpful data, though, in trying to organize a project, is if someone's consciously bulshing me when he says a deadline is not a problem.
KC Mulville
I followed the link. Pamela Meyer, the purveyor (I guess) of the website is a "Certified Fraud Examiner." Certified by who? Where have these truth-detectors been all my life when I needed them? Think of the cars I wouldn't have bought!
...
Count me out. I'm not sure I want to live in a world where everyone immediately has to be honest about how they feel about me. I'm more comfortable living in this world where the truth can remain a mystery. · Oct 22 at 10:45am
Nov '10
Re: A Confident Prediction
Claire Berlinski:
Why do I predict it? Because everyone absolutely loves hearing that people who sound confident don't really know what they're talking about, especially from someone who says this very confidently.
Not everyone absolutely, but absolutely everyone’s wife.
Edited on Oct 22, 2011 at 1:13pmAug '11
Re: A Confident Prediction
It seems that a lot of Hollywood movies preach the idea that a sufficiently strong momentum of confidence will overcome all obstacles. Tom Cruise is perhaps the embodiment of this idea.
Could this be due mainly to the need to package a coherent story in 100 minutes?
Sep '11
Re: A Confident Prediction
Presumably Kahneman's work is based largely upon recent empirical studies uncovering the so-called Kruger-Dunning effect. A piece in Psychology Today summarizes the idea quite well: "The Dunning-Kruger effect describes a cognitive bias in which people perform poorly on a task, but lack the meta-cognitive capacity to properly evaluate their performance. As a result, such people remain unaware of their incompetence and accordingly fail to take any self-improvement measures that might rid them of their incompetence."
I suspect that the Kruger-Dunning effect is clear to every professor or instructor who leads a discussion oriented course. For example, when grading argumentative essays for my ethics courses, I very often discover that the most vocal participants in class discussions are the worst when it comes to evaluating their own positions, while the more thoughtful and insightful papers are written by students who take a more tentative approach to class discussion.