A Center-Right Nation?
The most recent Ricochet Podcast made mention of something I've heard several times over the years that, while maintaining verisimilitude (...always wanted to use that word...), is probably misleading or, perhaps, simply incorrect.
It's been a couple days since I listened, so I don't remember who mentioned it, but it was regarding how the United States of America is, after all, a "center-right nation," and that while elections won by socialists may occur from time to time, eventually the American public reverts to mean and votes in a slightly-conservative president and/or bunch of people to lead them. The podcast also mentioned what I'm calling (for reasons listed below) the "40/20 fallacy" : that 40% of the American public lists themselves as conservative while only 20% consider themselves liberal. This, naturally, would lead to the remaining 40% listed as either "centrist," or, more often than not, as the "don't know/don't care/ huh?" constituency that, for some reason, are still allowed to vote.
The problem I have, and have had, with this is that I believe this assumption of a center-right plurality is incorrect. I seem to remember Bernard Goldberg mentioning in his book Bias that those in the media who were nothing short of radical leftists would consider themselves middle of the road. I believe this permeates to the population at large; we conservatives know we're conservative, while the liberals think they're moderates.
This is proven to me anecdotally anytime I get into it on Facebook or email with my friends from home in Massachusetts or from college in New Hampshire, most of whom still live in Massachusetts, New Hampshire or Vermont (I live in Packerland, now); if we were to draft out an itemized list of subjects (abortion, illegal immigration, gay marriage, constitutional items, etc), in each and every case they follow the liberal line. However, in each & every case they refuse to believe that they are liberal, using as their basis the reasoning that they're "not as liberal as some I know."
The problem is that they are so insular that they only know liberals; they may not be the most leftist among them, but then the sample size is rather skewed. I keep telling one of my buddies that, for Massachusetts, he may be a moderate, but for the country's population as a whole, not so much. He refuses to hear it.
In any case, returning to my thesis: it's not surprising to me that only 20% of Americans asked label themselves liberal; I'm willing to bet another 10%-15% of what we (and any objective reviewer) would consider liberal list themselves as moderate, bringing the true figures closer to 40% conservative/30-35% liberal. This doesn't quite mean ours is a "center-right" nation.
I believe the recent elections bear this out: per the numbers I was able to find on the past few presidential elections, the popular vote has yielded these figures (raw data found here; I cannot stipulate their accuracy):
| Popular Vote | Percentage of | ||
| Year | Candidate | Count | Popular Vote |
| 2008 | Obama | 66,862,039.00 | 53.41% |
| McCain | 58,319,442.00 | 46.59% | |
| 2004 | George W Bush | 62,028,285.00 | 51.24% |
| John Kerry | 59,028,109.00 | 48.76% | |
| 2000 | George W Bush | 50,456,002.00 | 48.36% |
| Al Gore | 50,999,897.00 | 48.88% | |
| Ralph Nader | 2,882,955.00 | 2.76% | |
| 1996 | Bill Clinton | 47,402,357.00 | 50.06% |
| Bob Dole | 39,198,755.00 | 41.40% | |
| H Ross Perot | 8,085,402.00 | 8.54% | |
| 1992 | Bill Clinton | 44,909,899.00 | 43.28% |
| George H W Bush | 39,104,545.00 | 37.69% | |
| H Ross Perot | 19,742,267.00 | 19.03% | |
| 1988 | George H W Bush | 48,886,097.00 | 53.90% |
| Michael S Dukakis | 41,809,074.00 | 46.10% |
Obviously, presidential elections are won based on the votes cast by the Electoral College (cf: 2000), however, a "Center Right" nation? Were that it were so...
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Jun '10
Re: A Center-Right Nation?
"Moderate" is the word used in these surveys. And I generally agree with your point. My best example comes from a radio interview where the person said:
"I'm not a liberal - I'm a moderate, but I'll have to say that all this opposition to Obama has to be racism..."
Why would you say that?
"Well, there's nothing in any of Obama's policies that anybody could possibly disagree with...so it has to be racism."
Center-right - Again, would that it were so.
Edited on June 18, 2012 at 6:49amJun '10
Re: A Center-Right Nation?
A lot of people in the middle, that vote for what the Democrats present in campaign advertising (or in friendly-media cheerleading) wouldn't want their kids to behave like the Progressive Democrats actually behave in real life. They act like drug addicts with a key to the till. The independent voters don't necessarily see that big disconnect between what Progressives say and what Progressives do, because they don't look that closely. Politics bores them to death. That's often why they're so "independent."
Feb '11
Re: A Center-Right Nation?
I have been suspicious of this for some time, and for similar reasons - the Presidential election results. It strikes me too, when for example, Jonah Goldberg and others argue that the nation has moved right-ward politically since the 1970's.
Yes and no.
I think in terms of economic thinking and small government some yes, in terms of culture, norms, art, popular entertainment - not so much. Plus look at how much of the population, and how much of that middle class segment that does identify as conservative, still drinks deeply and happily at the entitlement well.
Put them all together, and I'm highly skeptical we live in a center right nation.
I think we are living in a tiny smidgen left of center nation, with a strong conservative movement, and a lot of people who are conservative in how they live their lives, and/or simply averse to anything but the most incremental change; but who are not in any sense ideologically conservative. As well as, a large section of the population that simple sees themselves as moderates, but function as political liberals.
Mar '11
Re: A Center-Right Nation?
I'd still say center-right is a fair assessment.
In 1992, I knew a bunch of Perot voters, whose attitude could best be summed up as "now read my lips, George." A few of them had come around by the time Clinton stood for reelection, but Bob Dole?
2000 saw Bush and Gore fighting over the mushy middle. 2004 had a guy that wasn't all that conservative from a domestic perspective against The Man with the Magic Hat, and the Hat wasn't magic enough. Obama arrived during the perfect storm: in addition to the bottom dropping out of the economy, the middle was agog with the chance to prove that they weren't racists, and they jumped on it.
Here's to hoping that they are as eager to prove they aren't idiots.
The Electoral College does influence how the campaigns are conducted. If your party is winning in a state by x%, you don't get anything extra out of winning by x+y%, or lose anything by winning with x-y%. The campaigns tack to the middle to pick up the states where the results are in question.
Dec '10
Re: A Center-Right Nation?
We say the nation is center right because of polls like this. I will agree, however, that we're losing the language war. Some of the people who label themselves as moderate probably think Mao was just slightly off the center point.
Dec '11
Re: A Center-Right Nation?
We are a center right nation, but not monolithically so. Some socially conservative people vote for democrats because of union interests or a firmly rooted belief in social justice, and areas in which they are conservative are less important. Plus union interests and social justice positions don't make people feel the need to self identify as liberal.
Jan '11
Re: A Center-Right Nation?
If I asked you to pick between left, right, and "open to good ideas," it casts left and right as being closed to good ideas. So I'm suspicious of using those descriptions of the non-aligned.
Mar '12
Re: A Center-Right Nation?
I think you are right, that many people whose policy positions should categorize them as Left refuse to self-identify as "Liberal," preferring "moderate" or "centrist". Ironically, this may be some evidence that America is still center-right, since presumably in a strongly Left country, people would be proud to self-identify as Progressives or even Socialists.
Plus, the other thing I've noticed, the Left is hard on its brand. They enact dumb policies, like open-ended welfare benefits, or Obamacare, that people see don't work. So, every generation, they have to re-brand. "Socialist" was a proud brand in the 30s and 40s became a bad word in the 50s; "Liberal" became the main term. Now, "Progressive" is their preferred brand, but hasn't really caught on. So many take refuge by simply calling themselves "moderate".
Feb '12
Re: A Center-Right Nation?
I'd say the best evidence that we're a predominately center-right nation is the fact that even Obama, one of our most left-wing presidents in history, still campaigned on a cutting waste, keeping tax cuts, and reducing the deficit platform. Sure, anyone who paid any attention knew that the math just wouldn't line up, but he still had to sell himself that way.
Obama campaigned on reducing the deficit, just like FDR before him. The fact that even those who want to dramatically increase the size and scope of the government have to campaign otherwise should suggest how unpalatable left-wing ideas are.
Oct '10
Re: A Center-Right Nation?
Though I've quoted the 40/20 poll myself on Ricochet, I think there is truth in what you say.
I think there's a good chance, though, that conservatives might still outnumber liberals. If there are people self-labeling as moderates that are liberal, there are undoubtedly at least a small percentage (I'm thinking my wife's homeland here, S. Dakota/Wyoming) of conservatives that do the same. This latter group is in areas of smaller population but if, of the 40% self-identifying moderates, half skew liberal and a quarter conservative, we would still hold a small edge.
I'd like to think that anyway. I am heartened that we've made the label Liberal toxic. Maybe in time it can be readmitted to common usage under its proper meaning.
Edit: Plus, what Amy says.
Edited on June 18, 2012 at 4:24pmAug '10
Re: A Center-Right Nation?
If the conservatism we have is largely due to people leading conservative lives or being resistant to change, then wouldn't it be more likely that cultural conservatism rather than economic conservatism is what we'd have more of now?
Yes, the brand. Progressivism was the preferred brand name at the turn of the 20th century, but it, too, got tarnished. Then the switch to Liberalism happened. Progressivism is at least more historically accurate. I, too, know several "moderates" who have such a tough time with the idea of middle that I doubt they could find their middle fingers.
Edited on June 18, 2012 at 4:29pmMay '10
Re: A Center-Right Nation?
The trouble with polls such as the one cited by KP is that the people self-describe, with no clear definition of the meaning of the terms. Presidential voting doesn't really tell the story, though BDJ makes a noble effort to tease out underlying reality.
This country is process-conservative, and the center swing vote cadre is vaguely populist. If you surveyed my Minnesota Norwegian immigrant relatives, or the German and Swedish folks in surrounding states down through Iowa and Missouri, they would all see themselves as personally conservative- no surprises, no risk, stable honest clock-punchers wanting to go to a job that stays the same for 40 years.
That kind of stolid middle-class conservatism is not the Schumpeterian creative destruction we praise here.
These people are generally relatively pacifist and welcome "reasonable" social programs such as SS, FDIC, and Medicare; old-style industrial unions, 3.2 beer, and classic civil service work are second nature to them. They don't identify with Wall Street, Hollywood, or Silicon Valley.
Now look at the campaign issues, and see how they would appear to someone who doesn't follow election politics till the September sound bites.
Mar '11
Re: A Center-Right Nation?
A curse on you, BigDumbJerk! I have had almost this exact same post running through my head for months, but was too timid to pen to paper (or fingers to keyboard).
I think a strong argument in favor of your view is our own gut reaction. In posts on Ricochet, in articles on the Web, on Fox, conservatives act like they are in the minority. There are many discussions on Ricochet asking why conservative values are not mainstream -- well, one reason might be because conservatives are a actually a minority. If this is a center-right country, why do most posts on Ricochet complain about the state of affairs?
Also, has anyone ever met a self-labelled "centrist" who they didn't think was actually something of a lefty? When the political median is somewhat center-of-left, then the person in the center of the populace, statistically speaking, will have left-of-center views.
Mar '11
Re: A Center-Right Nation?
Amy Schley: I'd say the best evidence that we're a predominately center-right nation is the fact that even Obama, one of our most left-wing presidents in history, still campaigned on a cutting waste, keeping tax cuts, and reducing the deficit platform. Sure, anyone who paid any attention knew that the math just wouldn't line up, but he still had to sell himself that way.
Obama campaigned on reducing the deficit, just like FDR before him. The fact that even those who want to dramatically increase the size and scope of the government have to campaign otherwise should suggest how unpalatable left-wing ideas are. · 36 minutes ago
At the same time, a majority of voters want to raise taxes on the rich, and no Republican president has made any meaningful cuts to entitlement programs since their inception.
And wanting lower taxes for yourself and less government spending on waste or on programs you don't like isn't conservative - it's human.
Feb '12
Re: A Center-Right Nation?
Mendel
At the same time, a majority of voters want to raise taxes on the rich, and no Republican president has made any meaningful cuts to entitlement programs since their inception.
And wanting lower taxes for yourself and less government spending on waste or on programs you don't like isn't conservative - it's human. · 4 minutes ago
Eh, I won't argue that point ... But conservatives would do well to use people's natural selfishness in support of conservative policies. (e.g. She hates the War on Terror, he hates the War on Drugs, let's call the whole thing off.) The best way to make sure the government doesn't pay for things you like but I don't and vice versa is the get the government out of paying for so many different things. That's a conservative message; we ought to be making it.
Apr '11
Re: A Center-Right Nation?
1984 Ronald Reagan 54,455,472 58.5%
Walter Mondale 37,577,352 40.6%
1980 Ronald Reagan 43,903,230 50.7%
Jimmy Carter 35,480,115 41.0%
John B. Anderson 5,719,850 6.6%
Sep '10
Re: A Center-Right Nation?
While I pretty much agree, with the spirit of this argument, I think it's important to question the premise first.
Who defines left/right? Second, why is it always depicted as some sort of two-dimensional linear continuum? This is a crude and dumbed-down way of looking at the very complex subject of political expectations, assumptions and beliefs.
I reject the common definitions of left/right because it is fundamentally flawed, and badly misunderstood and abused by otherwise smart people.
If the left/right model is used as a strictly relative term, then the country is always in the center. The "center" moves this way and that.
Because the USA is founded on freedom of the individual, and leftism is collectivist and anti-individual (except in personal expression) someone rejecting collectivism is some kind of "right-winger"? (as defined as generally today by Democrats and moderate Republicans) Not at all.
This creates a false duality. I refuse to be labeled a "right-winger" because I stand for individual freedom. It is this legacy of individual freedom that doesn't easily fit into the left/right continuum that is most responsible for this skew. Leftism advances only by stealth.
Re: A Center-Right Nation?
Amy Schley
Mendel
At the same time, a majority of voters want to raise taxes on the rich, and no Republican president has made any meaningful cuts to entitlement programs since their inception.
And wanting lower taxes for yourself and less government spending on waste or on programs you don't like isn't conservative - it's human. · 4 minutes ago
Eh, I won't argue that point ... But conservatives would do well to use people's natural selfishness in support of conservative policies. (e.g. She hates the War on Terror, he hates the War on Drugs, let's call the whole thing off.) The best way to make sure the government doesn't pay for things you like but I don't and vice versa is the get the government out of paying for so many different things. That's a conservative message; we ought to be making it. · 1 hour ago
I agree. Let's accomplish that -- which I think we can do, even with BDJ's analysis. And then let the resulting culture take care of the rest.
Mar '11
Re: A Center-Right Nation?
Robert Mitchell: many people whose policy positions should categorize them as Left refuse to self-identify as "Liberal," preferring "moderate" or "centrist".
Bingo.
Duane Oyen: The trouble with polls such as the one cited by KP is that the people self-describe, with no clear definition of the meaning of the terms.
Double Bingo.
Jonah Goldberg devoted an entire book to debunking the standard usage of the term "fascist". Maybe we need another tome explaining what's wrong with the term "moderate".
Dec '10
Re: A Center-Right Nation?
Well, Jonah needs another book project...