A Brokered Convention? As of Next Tuesday's Primaries, It Might Become "Extremely Likely"
Peter Robinson ·
February 24, 2012 at 12:01am
The GOP's very own Machiavelli, Roger Stone, writing on the StoneZone:
If Santorum continues his surge by winning Michigan with the Tea Party-Evangelical-Working Class vote while Romney wins Arizona due to the large Mormon populace and seniors, the brokered convention becomes extremely likely as the GOP primary will turn into a race divided by regional preferences - Santorum carrying the Midwest, Gingrich parts of the South and Romney performing in the Northeast and West which is dominated by moderates and senior voters.
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Comments:
Feb '12
Re: A Brokered Convention? As of Next Tuesday's Primaries, It Might Become "Extremely Likely"
If the right candidate is chosen, I don't see a brokered convention being a huge negative. The candidate has to be able to bridge the gap between the GOP establishment and Tea Party. IMO, the best candidate to do that would be Paul Ryan. The other thing that would be extremely helpful would be for Palin to immediately come out with a big endorsement of Ryan to help the Tea Party crowd on board. Ryan running with a Palin endorsement would make most people forget all about the process and the other four candidates. Having said the above, I still prefer a new candidate get in the race after Super Tuesday and not wait until the convention.
Edited on February 24, 2012 at 2:29amApr '11
Re: A Brokered Convention? As of Next Tuesday's Primaries, It Might Become "Extremely Likely"
Wouldn't it be likely that the four current candidates would hammer out a deal amongst themselves rather than hand the nomination over to someone who didn't even participate in the campaign process?
Jun '10
Re: A Brokered Convention? As of Next Tuesday's Primaries, It Might Become "Extremely Likely"
Functionary:
1. Because they may be representative of the broader party.
2. Because the majority of Republicans aren't sold on ObamneyCare, which makes ABR the "inclusive" POV. · 22 minutes ago
How do you know this, do you know the majority of Republicans personally? It seems to me the best indicator we have of what the majority of Republicans think is how they vote in the primaries.
Remember, last time around the majority of Republicans picked McCain. Has it ever occurred to you that perhaps the average Republican is more moderate and less ideological than the average Ricochet member?
Jun '10
Re: A Brokered Convention? As of Next Tuesday's Primaries, It Might Become "Extremely Likely"
Yes. One would end up as VP and the other two would get cabinet posts.
Apr '11
Re: A Brokered Convention? As of Next Tuesday's Primaries, It Might Become "Extremely Likely"
Joseph Stanko
Yes. One would end up as VP and the other two would get cabinet posts. · 5 minutes ago
This is another reason why, despite grave disillusionment with the current candidates, I'm wary of a brokered convention. We'd probably still end up with Romney, except he'd be saddled with the burden of a Santorum or Gingrich on the ticket.
We might as well just suck it up and settle for Romney now while there's still a chance of getting a Rubio on the ticket.
Edited on February 24, 2012 at 2:56amOct '11
Re: A Brokered Convention? As of Next Tuesday's Primaries, It Might Become "Extremely Likely"
The idea of nominating Christie scares me worse than Romney. As far as I can tell, Christie is to the left of Romney, never mind the physical spectacle. What are people thinking? We're already on course to lose 55-45, y'all want to make it 60-40 now?
Jul '11
Re: A Brokered Convention? As of Next Tuesday's Primaries, It Might Become "Extremely Likely"
Landfall has given, me a thought. A brokered convention opens the door to drafting a candidate. Who would you like to see drafted?I am from the Douglas Adams school where only those who do not seek power must be allowed to have it, thus I would like to draft Congressman Ryan followed closely by Governor Matthew Hansen Mead of Wyoming (assuming we want a conservative and not another pop-idol candidate).So what about everyone else? It's only a daydream so feel free to reach, I know I did.
Feb '12
Re: A Brokered Convention? As of Next Tuesday's Primaries, It Might Become "Extremely Likely"
I didn't say it would be more inclusive. I just don't the majority to not care about the rest of us. Especially if the later primaries don't have a chance to cast their vote. I live in Wisconsin, I don't want Iowa and New Hampshire to force my vote not to count.
Joseph Stanko
If Romney wins, it will be because he won the votes of the majority of GOP primary voters. If a brokered convention picks a candidate only a handful of delegates and party leaders will have a say in the process. How is that more inclusive? · 3 hours ago
Dec '10
Re: A Brokered Convention? As of Next Tuesday's Primaries, It Might Become "Extremely Likely"
Joseph Stanko
Yes. One would end up as VP and the other two would get cabinet posts. · 3 hours ago
It depends entirely on how much they hate each other. If Gingrich and Santorum reach a point where they decide keeping Romney out of the top slot is more important than anything else, they don't have to make a deal. But on the other hand, the days when delegates had to obey their candidates or even their State delegation leaders are long past.
Edited on February 24, 2012 at 5:20amAug '10
Re: A Brokered Convention? As of Next Tuesday's Primaries, It Might Become "Extremely Likely"
To throw someone into the debates with Obama in September who hasn't been honed in the fire of the primaries would ensure a landslide for the Dems in November, I don't care who you recruit.
These final 4 have all improved greatly in the debates over the past 6 months - it's called experience and it matters.
Feb '12
Re: A Brokered Convention? As of Next Tuesday's Primaries, It Might Become "Extremely Likely"
Frozen Chosen: To throw someone into the debates with Obama in September who hasn't been honed in the fire of the primaries would ensure a landslide for the Dems in November, I don't care who you recruit.
These final 4 have all improved greatly in the debates over the past 6 months - it's called experience and it matters. · 1 minute ago
I've seen enough of Ryan in action that I'd be surprised if he couldn't hold his own against Obama in a debate. Plus, it's not like Obama has been fine tuning his debating skills. His last debate was with McCain over three years ago. IMO, the GOP needs someone that can do a good job of explaining the two choices/paths our country has, which Ryan does very well.
Dec '10
Re: A Brokered Convention? As of Next Tuesday's Primaries, It Might Become "Extremely Likely"
Thad McCotter seems to think that if we get a brokered convention it will be orchestrated by the establishment in order to thwart the will of the party rank and file. I think he's bat guano crazy on this one. It's the rank and file hoping to broker the convention in order to thwart the will of the party establishment who think Romney is ever so dreamy.
Jun '10
Re: A Brokered Convention? As of Next Tuesday's Primaries, It Might Become "Extremely Likely"
I'm baffled by this, really I am. The "party establishment" doesn't pick our nominee, GOP voters do. The only way the "party establishment" could pick a candidate is if there's a brokered convention. Otherwise, voters decide.
Isn't that the whole point of primaries?
Nov '11
Re: A Brokered Convention? As of Next Tuesday's Primaries, It Might Become "Extremely Likely"
Landfall
I've seen enough of Ryan in action that I'd be surprised if he couldn't hold his own against Obama in a debate. Plus, it's not like Obama has been fine tuning his debating skills. His last debate was with McCain over three years ago. IMO, the GOP needs someone that can do a good job of explaining the two choices/paths our country has, which Ryan does very well. · 30 minutes ago
He would be superb on first principles, on Obamacare and the debt and unemployment and everything economic. But Russia, China, Israel, and Iran? I'm sure he's up-to-date, but to prepare for the ultimate responsibility, starting only in September?
And the moderators would try to avoid his strongest issues and produce less-familiar topics.
I think Ryan could do it, but that might be me wanting to think Ryan could do it.
Oct '10
Re: A Brokered Convention? As of Next Tuesday's Primaries, It Might Become "Extremely Likely"
Here's the counterargument.
Peter Robinson: The GOP's very own Machiavelli, Roger Stone, writing on the StoneZone:
· 11 hours ago
Oct '10
Re: A Brokered Convention? As of Next Tuesday's Primaries, It Might Become "Extremely Likely"
Stuart Creque
The problem is that there wouldn't be agreement on who's more plausible. For every name put forward - Chris, Mitch, Paul, Sarah, Jeb, Bobby, whoever - there would be a hue and outcry from those who think that person completely implausible for one or more very good reasons.
If somehow Paul Ryan were chosen, do you really think there would be broad opposition? I don't see it. An articulate and persuasive Republican candidate? Why didn't we try this before!
Edited on February 24, 2012 at 12:51pmDec '10
Re: A Brokered Convention? As of Next Tuesday's Primaries, It Might Become "Extremely Likely"
Would it be so terrible to have a convention that meant something.
Feb '12
Re: A Brokered Convention? As of Next Tuesday's Primaries, It Might Become "Extremely Likely"
Leigh
Landfall
I've seen enough of Ryan in action that I'd be surprised if he couldn't hold his own against Obama in a debate. Plus, it's not like Obama has been fine tuning his debating skills. His last debate was with McCain over three years ago. IMO, the GOP needs someone that can do a good job of explaining the two choices/paths our country has, which Ryan does very well. · 30 minutes ago
He would be superb on first principles, on Obamacare and the debt and unemployment and everything economic. But Russia, China, Israel, and Iran? I'm sure he's up-to-date, but to prepare for the ultimate responsibility, starting only in September?
And the moderators would try to avoid his strongest issues and produce less-familiar topics.
I think Ryan could do it, but that might be me wanting to think Ryan could do it. · 8 hours ago
Attached is a speech Ryan gave last year to the Alexander Hamilton Society on Foreign Policy. He's thought about the issues.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/ryan-embraces-exceptionalism-rejects-isolationism-foreign-policy-speech_573194.html?nopager=1
Nov '11
Re: A Brokered Convention? As of Next Tuesday's Primaries, It Might Become "Extremely Likely"
Landfall
Attached is a speech Ryan gave last year to the Alexander Hamilton Society on Foreign Policy. He's thought about the issues.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/ryan-embraces-exceptionalism-rejects-isolationism-foreign-policy-speech_573194.html?nopager=1 · 14 minutes ago
I remember it from the time. It's very good, but it's a philosophical emphasis -- not "this is how I would deal with Turkey or China" or the kinds of random things you want to be able to talk fluently about in a debate or campaigning.
It's not that he's unqualified, he'd be stronger than most governors on national issues. He's just something of a specialist, and if he's been been preparing to be president, he's been hiding it very well. Jumping in late puts you at a disadvantage.
But if we had a brokered convention and if it resulted in drafting a new candidate, I agree, he'd probably be the best option. He'd have the moral authority to pull the party together better than anyone else. He's also both disciplined and likeable, which helps when you have less time to make an impression.
Edited on February 24, 2012 at 3:53pmFeb '12
Re: A Brokered Convention? As of Next Tuesday's Primaries, It Might Become "Extremely Likely"
Leigh: I agree with everything you say above. I'm just not worried about whatever shortcomings Ryan may have on some foreign policy issues carrying the day in this election. Future vision/path of the Country and strength on domestic issues will drive the results, IMO.