2013 Predictions: What'd I Miss?
Earlier this week, National Review Online asked for predictions for 2013. Unwisely, I made some firm calls, one each on foreign policy, domestic policy, and popular culture:
In foreign affairs, Israel will attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, either covertly or overtly. The United States will sit on the sidelines.
Here at home, the Supreme Court will strike down California’s ban on gay marriage.
In pop culture, viewers will finally start to turn off reality shows — real reality is more real. “Call Me Maybe” will not be the song of summer 2013. Thank God.
I'll add a sports one. I didn't realize when I made my predictions that poor old Andy Reid (who was the coach of my Philadelphia Eagles) would be on his way to Kansas City. Placing hope over experience, I wish the Eagles would name Jon Gruden (aka "Chucky" from the movies) the new head coach. This would bring together my two favorite NFL franchises, the Eagles and the Raiders. But experience tells me that the Eagles will do something disappointing, like picking some obscure offensive coordinator or college coach rather than a head coach with Super Bowl experience.
Anyway, where do you think I'm wrong? What are the sure things for 2013 that we missed? What do you predict for 2013 in these categories? If you want to be especially daring, predict the unemployment rate, interest rates, the Dow Jones, or Obama's approval rating at the end of 2013.
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Comments:
Mar '12
Re: 2013 Predictions: What'd I Miss?
John, the Raiders? Really? How about this for a sports prediction? The Dodgers suffer from lack of team cohesion and from injuries to their newly purchased star players and finish 6 games out of first. Also, inflation brings calls from Washington for price controls that, just a few years ago, would have seemed unimaginable.
Jan '11
Re: 2013 Predictions: What'd I Miss?
As a fellow Eagles fan, I must strongly disagree about Jon Gruden. Gruden is cut from the same family tree as Andy Reid; they all come from Bill Walsh and the west-coast offense, but the Eagles' problem isn't the offense. The defense has fallen apart. Before Jim Johnson died, the Eagles defense was intimidating. Now teams look to get healthy by playing them.
I was never a big fan of Andy Reid, and I always thought that Johnson's defense covered up for his inconsistent offense. Since Johnson died, the Eagles are only a 50-50 team. It isn't the offense.
On the other hand, football history is one innovation responding the last one. Walsh created the west coast, and then Buddy Ryan came along with his pressure and blitz defense. The smothering attack defenses were dominant until Tom Brady and Peyton Manning came along. Brady and Manning are so good because you can't blitz them. They take what you give them, and they make decisions quickly.
Sooner or later, defenses will adjust. I'd love to see the Eagles hire a defensive innovator who has a way to respond to Brady and Manning.
Politics? Meh.
Jun '10
Re: 2013 Predictions: What'd I Miss?
"The United States will sit on the sidelines."
I think you understate the case. In any conflict which might ensue, the Administration will say "Israel acted with improper haste in doing [X], and has thus brought this situation upon themselves." I think it might even cut off all financial and military aid to Israel, stating they are simply following [inevitable] UN recommendations.
May '10
Re: 2013 Predictions: What'd I Miss?
Browns will hire the Eagle's first choice as coach, Oregon's Chip Kelly, who will be -- by definition, because he's being hired by the Browns -- an epic flop in the NFL.
You're welcome, Eagle's fans.
Jun '10
Re: 2013 Predictions: What'd I Miss?
I agree with the Israel prediction, although America's "sitting on the sidelines" will likely involve posturing about Israel's irrational desire to prevent a nuclear attack. We should be helping Israel.
Sadly, I agree with the second, and it'll be pretty sad to see the Court overturn the will of the people on an issue that has been law for 200 years.
No opinion on no. 3, although I pray you'll be right.
As to the Philly-Raiders connection, I can only express condolences for the sorry state of both franchises. In Bronco country, demi-god Peyton Manning is spreading sweetness and light.
Dec '10
Re: 2013 Predictions: What'd I Miss?
unemployment way high, GDP way low, economic outlook way grim ...
Jul '10
Re: 2013 Predictions: What'd I Miss?
The federal government will keep growing. The GOP will keep caving in and trying to spin it into a victory. The seeds of unrest will continue to be sown.
Mar '11
Re: 2013 Predictions: What'd I Miss?
Egypt will become an Islamic Republic via referendum. It will not be free or fair but it will reflect popular will.
Washington is forced to revisit Obamacare as the reality on the ground that the majority of states refuse to implement health insurance exchanges forces the absurdities of this "reform" out into the open.
PSY manages to concoct a new bit of K-pop absurdity that is even more successful than Gangnam Style.
Jun '12
Re: 2013 Predictions: What'd I Miss?
In foreign affairs, Israel will attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, either covertly or overtly. The United States will sit on the sidelines.
I fear they've (we've) waited to long, and at some point in the near future we'll awake to the news that Tel-Aviv was nuked. Is that an irrational thought?
May '10
Re: 2013 Predictions: What'd I Miss?
Most important prediction of the year...when does the EU collapse and which member brings it down to start the domino effect? (i.e. Which EU country gets to be Bear Stearns?)
Aug '12
Re: 2013 Predictions: What'd I Miss?
Yes
Rob in N.CA: In foreign affairs, Israel will attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, either covertly or overtly. The United States will sit on the sidelines.
I fear they've (we've) waited to long, and at some point in the near future we'll awake to the news that Tel-Aviv was nuked. Is that an irrational thought? · 4 hours ago
May '11
Re: 2013 Predictions: What'd I Miss?
Boy band One Direction dominates the music scene. Rumors of Radiohead breaking up are false. The stock market goes up 5%. The economy grows at an anemic 1%. Unemployment stays at around 8%. Malaise continues but is projected on the Republican Party. Falcons (NFL) Thunder (NBA) and the K.C Royals win championships. Kim Kardashian and Kanye West have a healthy baby boy who turns out to be the spawn of satan.
Jul '10
Re: 2013 Predictions: What'd I Miss?
Cowboy Fans hate eagles more in 2013 (if it's even possible).
Nov '10
Re: 2013 Predictions: What'd I Miss?
It is always perilous to disagree with Mr. Yoo, particularly with respect to legal issues, but I am feeling particularly reckless this morning.
The Supremes will uphold California's ban on gay marriage, but it will strike down the Defense of Marriage Act on the ground that the states have the exclusive right to define marriage.
Dec '10
Re: 2013 Predictions: What'd I Miss?
Obama's approval at the end of 2013 is easy. 47% No, wait. With increasing federal dependency, more borrowing/printing, and perpetual unemployment benefits (provided by aforementioned caving Republicans), his approval will go up. 49.8% Bank on it. ;-)
Unemployment will remain below 9%, but labor participation will plummet further.
The stock market will have another pretty good year, proving once again that it is a gambling site and that, contrary to popular opinion, Stock Market =/= Economy.
Interest rates will remain (artificially) low, because, you know, that's working so well for containment of the deficit/debt. Or, at least, we're not going bankrupt by having to make payments on it... yet.
Happy New Year, ya'll! Anyone want to join my Preppers Club?
Sung to the tune of the Dr. Pepper jingle... "He's a prepper, she's a prepper, wouldn't you like to be a prepper too?"
Jan '11
Re: 2013 Predictions: What'd I Miss?
Ricochet will peg it's new subscription price.
Old price = 1 Starbucks coffee
New Price = 2 times whatever Andrew Sullivan is charging.