2012: Predictopocalypse
James Poulos ·
December 30, 2011 at 5:08pm
It's the second-most-wonderful time of the year.
Obama wins, Obamacare is upheld 8-1, and an earthquake swallows North Korea. America starts a War on Racism and wins it in time for the Super Bowl. At a solemn halftime ceremony, Tim Tebow becomes an honorary member of the Black Eyed Peas.
Wait, that's not right.
Here's what I think is really, really going to happen. For sure. Without a doubt. Or your money back.
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Comments:
Jun '10
Re: 2012: Predictopocalypse
I want some of whatever you're smoking...it seems like some pretty good stuff.
Aug '10
Re: 2012: Predictopocalypse
Canuckistan will continue to be competently governed, throwing the left-wing opposition and the media into yet more fits of paroxysm.
Jun '10
Re: 2012: Predictopocalypse
James, I thought some of your predictions were a little far out, until the last one. Then I realized that you were performing a Jan. 1st equivalent of an April 1st joke; right?
May '10
Re: 2012: Predictopocalypse
Scary, especially the part about the screwed up Supreme court decision on Obamacare/PACA...
Jun '10
Re: 2012: Predictopocalypse
I think your prediction about Petraeus is about as likely as Michael Moore becoming a triathlete next year. Most Vice Presidents don't get to do anything, and the ones that do (e.g. Cheney) are always hated for it. I don't think Petraeus would go near it.
Edited on December 30, 2011 at 6:13pmRe: 2012: Predictopocalypse
The whole exercise is the pundit's equivalent of performance art, but the ritual of annual predictions actually serves as a great opportunity to road test some big-picture thought experiments. A speedy mashup of the plausible and implausible can help us concentrate on what's actually not so inevitable, where the possibility tree could branch off crazily. The best predictions get you thinking outside the box for educational *and* entertainment purposes. It's valuable in a similar way as fantasizing as a kid about how you'd escape from your house with the dog in the event of a dinosaur attack or meteor strike.
Jul '11
Re: 2012: Predictopocalypse
James, I heard a rumor from a monied man that Petraeus was approached to run for president by some GOP financial brokers. He certainly has a place should the GOP win.
My prediction is that this is a rigged horse race and unless we get a big juicy scandal on our Chicago thugs in power this is a lost election.
Jul '11
Re: 2012: Predictopocalypse
Gnome population increases in 2012 resulting in more double posts.
Edited on December 30, 2011 at 7:40pmFeb '11
Re: 2012: Predictopocalypse
OK, I can't resist. I don't have my "Amalgamated Brotherhood of Pundits" membership card yet, but here goes...
Romney will be the nominee and he will defeat Obama.
Europe will get worse as more good money is thrown after bad, increasing the pain of the eventual euro break up. Once that crack-up starts it will trigger a major rearrangement of everything. Changes will be dramatic and fast. Their depth surprising to all, including those who see it coming.
China will start to unravel as their long-inflated economic bubble begins a painful exhale. The destruction of the Politburo's only legitimacy -- economic growth -- will empower all the dissidents: separatists, westernizers, religious groups. The threat of Civil war/seperatist wars will become more real, just waiting on arms and a new Mao or Chiang Kai-shek. Elsewhere it will be like the early '90s crash of Japan, Inc., as the Chinese have to cash out their investments for dimes on the dollar to raise needed cash to buy off their subjects. Also we'll see dramatic increases in electronics prices as Asian manufacturing is disrupted.
And the world will still turn.
Wow, that was easy... ;-)
Oct '10
Re: 2012: Predictopocalypse
Here's my prediction:
Mitt will get the nomination; he may even win against Obama. The political process will grind to a halt as Obama fashions his "run against Congress" strategy into reality. They'll be several government shutdowns and a repeat of the debt limit hike; all will benefit Obama.
Europe will experience a major financial crisis next year. It will also experience a minor constitutional crisis, as the ECB faces an internal revolt over its superhawkish policy. The financial turmoil will be resolved when the ECB pledges unlimited support of Euro bond markets, under IMF conditionality. The eurozone member states will enthusiastically embrace this in public, though some will quietly consider plans to leave the eurozone in 2013 or 2014. No country (except possibly for Greece) will leave the eurozone in 2012.
There will be a small recession in Europe, and a very small recession in the U.S. (or zero growth) in the second half of 2012, following robust growth in the first two quarters. China will experience a slowdown in economic growth, with some political fallout. It will not, however, collapse. The yuan will continue to appreciate in real terms.