2012 Politics: The Romney Bubble
Mitt Romney is following textbook politics as he pursues the 2012 Republican nomination. He's raising a ton of money and spreading it around the GOP. He wrote a book outlining the policies he'd follow if he were in charge. His team of consultants is laying the groundwork for the presidential contest while advising candidates like Scott Brown. And for the most part, Romney has flown below the radar as he tries to win what Karl Rove calls the "invisible primaries" of money, establishment support, substance, and reassurance.
For all these reasons, it would be easy to call Romney the frontrunner for the Republican nod. But I'd think twice before doing so. Romney may turn out to be a paper tiger. He has a major likability problem -- according to Gallup, among Republicans, his favorables are the lowest of any of the likely 2012 contestants (with the exception of Bobby Jindal, whom most Republicans never have heard of). Most important, Romney's signature achievement during his one term as Massachusetts governor was his health care plan -- a plan which the Democrats are not wrong to describe as similar to Obamacare, and which Robert Samuelson tears apart in today's Washington Post.
In 2008, Romney had the most success winning caucuses, places where he had personal connections, and states with large Mormon populations. But he had trouble breaking out beyond that. Is there any reason to think he won't have the same problem in 2012 -- or worse?
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Jun '10
Re: 2012 Politics: The Romney Bubble
I trust Romney to get a handle on the economy, and that's important, but on other core conservative issues, I'm not sure. As a conservative, Romney is a very late bloomer. It makes me wonder how much of his conversion (to conservatism) is sincere.
Re: 2012 Politics: The Romney Bubble
Worse--much worse. Why? In a word, RomneyCare.
Are Republican primary voters, incensed by ObamaCare, likely to rally to a man who's signal achievement as governor of Massachusetts was enacting a government health care program of his own? And that is now, by universal account, failing spectacularly either to control prices or improve health care for the citizens of the Bay State?
As Joe Rago argued recently in the Wall Street Journal:
"Vote for me. I enacted socialized medicine before Obama." Not, I suspect, a winning platform.
Edited on Jul 19, 2010 at 12:40pmJul '10
Re: 2012 Politics: The Romney Bubble
I definitely don't think he's nearly as viable a candidate as the media would like to think, primarily because of the healthcare issue but I think it's reflective of something bigger: he's only started holding the type of conservative views that appeal most to primary voters since he started running in national elections. His track record on abortion and gay rights is likely to make the base very nervous, and when you factor in his religion, they're going to turn away completely--especially if they are given the opportunity to vote for someone they think shares their values identically. The funny thing is, I think Mitt could actually do relatively well beyond the primary. I think he'd have a real shot at the presidency, but he has no shot at the Republican nomination as long as there's a Sarah Palin or a Mike Huckabee to energize the base. Even though he probably has an easier time beating Obama than either of them would...
Jun '10
Re: 2012 Politics: The Romney Bubble
Peter Robinson: Worse--much worse. Why? In a word, RomneyCare.....
· Jul 19 at 11:38am
I'm more forgiving of programs tried at the state level--labratory of democracy and all. At the state level, programs are much easier to scrap if they don't work.
Re: 2012 Politics: The Romney Bubble
I'm with Peter. Nominating Romney would neutralize ObamaCare as a bright-line issue in 2012. That would be an unconscionable gift to the president, and a slap in the face to the national majority favoring repeal. We need a Republican party rededicated to conservative principle, not validation of Tea Party and Independent cynicism about both major political parties.
May '10
Re: 2012 Politics: The Romney Bubble
The fact that he seems to be the media darling on the Republican side should be enough to give Republicans pause. John McCain was the former favorite on the right of the MSM until he dared challenge the chosen one and then the media turned on him.
I couldn't agree more with Peter and George that the argument against ObamaCare is largely, if not completely neutralized with a Romney nomination.
The Republicans also need to stop with the next in line mentality (i.e., the runner-up last time) and choose a candidate with a conservative track record. We honestly do not have a better candidate than someone who could not beat John McCain in 2008?
Re: 2012 Politics: The Romney Bubble
One problem Romney must confront is that his pitch depends on making a case that the honest answer to that question is a resounding yes. Of course, McCain himself was next in line. But that makes Romney the guy behind the guy behind the guy who won. One possible escape: technically, the next person in line is -- Sarah Palin. A final pitfall: coming out of Romney's mouth, that sounds like a technicality.
May '10
Re: 2012 Politics: The Romney Bubble
James Poulos, Ed.
One possible escape: technically, the next person in line is -- Sarah Palin. A final pitfall: coming out of Romney's mouth, that sounds like a technicality. · Jul 19 at 12:53pm
If he has to dig that deep, he has even less of a chance than I'm giving him. While Palin was the VP choice of McCain, she was really not on the radar during primary season, when Republican voters decided they preferred McCain over Romney. I don't see what will have changed in the last 4 years that makes Romney a clear-cut choice especially with the Republicans' major edge, widespread opposition to Obamacare, neutralized.
The fact that he is winning the "invisible primaries" is part of the reason I'm not as optimistic for November as most are. There's still way too much time for the party to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Then again, it may be that Romney is the only one we know for sure is running and there is no clear option at this point.
Jul '10
Re: 2012 Politics: The Romney Bubble
Mike Riscili
The fact that he is winning the "invisible primaries" is part of the reason I'm not as optimistic for November as most are.
From a purely political (and admittedly bitter) place, I almost hope November isn't as good for the Republicans as it looks based on the headlines. I don't believe for a second that Obama is as good at triangulating as Bill Clinton, but I don't want to give him the chance. The GOP has yet to come together in ideological way, and losing again might force them to do so. It would also give Obama and the Democrats even more time to prove their ineptitude, and getting rid of him in 2012 matters more to me than replacing Nancy Pelosi right now does. Though I worry what the country will have to go through if the present leadership continues for another two and a half years...
I'm more optimistic about Palin on all fronts than a lot of folks on here, I already know that, but if she decides to run...I don't see how anyone stops her from winning all the early primaries except New Hampshire.
May '10
Re: 2012 Politics: The Romney Bubble
Americans are rejecting Romney as they discover "Mitt Romney" is an anagram for "Mo'! It my tern!"
Jul '10
Re: 2012 Politics: The Romney Bubble
The impression you get looking at Romney is that he's a bit too tailored. He's a bit difficult to trust, particularly given his expedient policies as governor. He strikes me as an establishment candidate and that's the last thing we need in '12. My recipe would include no one from Congress. Even if the R's take it back, I have a hunch that the confidence poll numbers will remain low. Pawlenty-Daniels '12? Vice-versa?
May '10
Re: 2012 Politics: The Romney Bubble
I think Romney is a genuine guy- "tailored" means that he is personally conservative, the dress code born of his Harvard Business-Harvard law background. The late Dean Barnett, a pretty laid-back guy, said that Romney is the genuine article- he isn't phony enough to pretend that he loves you if he doesn't know you. He isn't a great liar like Bill Clinton.
I don't care when he converted to pro-life and traditional-marriage-only; I care that he has well-thought-out and genuine views. I don't know the answer, of course.
The Massachusetts plan is a mess- but recall two things: 1) it was designed in large part by Heritage, everyone guessed about consequences; and 2) the legislature added/subtracted the provisions that were needed to make it work- that is, the "sticks", due to "fairness".
Can he recover? Sure- be bold and blunt- "I pushed RomneyCare, and it has been a disaster. No one knows better than I do that this doesn't work, because a) xxxxxx, and b) zzzzzzz. Therefore, having learned our lessons, we need to go back to free markets.
But I'm a Pawlenty guy.
Re: 2012 Politics: The Romney Bubble
It's hard to win the "invisible" primaries if you're pretty much invisible yourself. On the issues of the day -- especially the red meat issues -- Romney is curiously silent. As the Tea Parties and the Republican faithful get fired up about the mid-terms, Romney is....where exactly?
My prediction: he doesn't even run.
Jul '10
Re: 2012 Politics: The Romney Bubble
Rob, do you think he'll try to play kingmaker with his endorsement (and money) and go for the VP slot?