2012 Landslide Ahead
To those professional pundits and political prognosticators who are warning us that Barack Obama could still win the presidential election next year, I would like to point out that, not only can they not see the forest for the trees, they cannot see the trees for the bark. So let us raise our heads and hike back one mile and re-examine Barack Obama.
Barack Obama is a political imbecile.
Starting with his minor inanity, putting his face in front of the voters too often. Barack Obama does not know the aphorism, "Familiarity breeds contempt." His latest address to both Houses of Congress fits this truth quite well. Now on to more serious shortcomings.
I was aghast at how he, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid frogmarched Democratic legislators to vote for Obamacare. Hardball politics is childishly stupid and self-destructive. Witness the election results of November, 2010. Barack Obama has no grasp of the long-term consequences of his actions. Its not that he dismissed these consequences, he didn't even realize they existed.
Now Barack Obama is treating the Solyndra and "Fast and Furious" as irrelevances. I can understand why he is, what with the liberal MSM willing to play along, soft pedaling the stories. But this tactic does not take into account the rise of the Internet and Fox News. A politically astute president would follow the example English king Henry II. After the murder of the Archbishop of Canterbury, Thomas Becket, Henry II took public penance for this murder. If Barack Obama did the modern equivalent of taking the blame ("the buck stops with me," "I failed to provide sufficient oversight," etc.), then these issues would be dead by next summer and unavailable to his Republican challenger. (I am assuming that there are no similar issues going to arise. But with Barack Obama, this may well be an incorrect assumption.)
Instead, Barack Obama is taking the worst course. He is ignoring the issues, hoping that they go away. This guarantees that the issues will only grow worse and will reach full impact at the height of the presidential campaign. Facts regarding these two issues will slowly come out, each fact more damning than the last, keeping the stories alive and growing them over time. The MSM will try to ignore the stories as long as they can, but at some point they will have to address them lest they lose their cover as Barack Obama's shills.
Barack Obama's political incompetence will add up to a Republican landslide on November, 2012. His actions will inflame his opponents and turn away independents. That is one way to create a landslide: encourage your opponents to vote and discourage your supporters from even showing up at the polling place.
Aside: If Barack Obama is a political imbecile, then why was he elected president in 2008?
Because:
- His political experience was short and limited to the legislative branch where his short-comings would not be evident;
- The MSM did not bother to closely vet Barack Obama's short political career and, in fact, portrayed Barack Obama as he wanted to be portrayed and
- Barack Obama was running against a weak Republican opponent.
Points 1 and 2 will no longer be in play in 2012, while point 3 is still undecided. But even so, Barack Obama is in over his head and I fully expect him to do himself and the Democratic party even more harm over the coming year. It is not so much that the Republicans will win but that the Barack Obama will self-destruct.
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Oct '10
Re: 2012 Landslide Ahead
I think you're right. Although a year is a long time in politics, as of now the election is ours to win, barring a surprise economic turn-arround or an inept Republican candidate.
Edited on Oct 16, 2011 at 11:26amApr '11
Re: 2012 Landslide Ahead
It's one of the reasons I think that a Mitt victory really could bring excitement; there are a lot more battleground states for him than for Perry. The strategy and focus is on the Mid-West, the Southwest, and the South, but the lack of areas that he can't win in makes a LBJ/ Eisenhower scale landslide more possible, and that's the sort of mandate that might make the Ryan plan politically feasible.
Aug '10
Re: 2012 Landslide Ahead
TeamAmerica: ...barring a surprise economic turn-arround or an inept Republican candidate. · Oct 16 at 11:25am
Edited on Oct 16 at 11:26 am
Surprise economic turnaround? If the economy recovers due to Obama's policies I will be compelled to re-examine every precept of the free market I have ever learned, observed, believed or practiced - I may have to become a socialist.
The economy isn't recovering precisely because of his economic policies, particularly those contributing to the present climate of 'regime uncertainty'.
It is lose-lose for Obama. If he continues this path, the economy won't recover and he is toast. If he attempts to pivot a la Bill Clinton, he will be castigated by the left for doing so and by the right for waiting so long - in either case helping his opponent.
The conjecture is that he is a 'loner' and is relying almost solely on Valerie Jarrett per this quote from the NY Post "He talks mostly, and sometimes only, to friend and adviser Valerie Jarrett and to David Axelrod, his political strategist."
Those two are so tone deaf they may exceed the margin of Republican stupidity.
Jul '10
Re: 2012 Landslide Ahead
Obama, Pelosi, and Reid: "The Axes of Taxes"
Aug '11
Re: 2012 Landslide Ahead
Instugator
It is lose-lose for Obama. If he continues this path, the economy won't recover and he is toast. If he attempts to pivot a la Bill Clinton, he will be castigated by the left for doing so and by the right for waiting so long - in either case helping his opponent.
· Oct 16 at 3:43pm
Another example of Obama's political incompetence: boxing himself in a corner with no way to extract himself.
May '10
Re: 2012 Landslide Ahead
I hope you are right.
From where I sit, they don't seem that worried about looking like Obama's shills. They will cover, cover, cover for him as never before in the 2012 campaign. And do all they can to vilify the Tea Party and the GOP ticket.
Aside: If Barack Obama is a political imbecile, then why was he elected president in 2008?
Because:
You forgot #4, which is that he used his race, and white guilt, to manipulate the masses -- to powerful effect. As has been said countless times, were it not for his (half) racial advantage, he would be just another unremarkable senator, going nowhere.
Edited on Oct 16, 2011 at 5:20pmJul '10
Re: 2012 Landslide Ahead
I don't disagree with your most of your assessment, Charles. I do think they were aware of the consequences of shoving Obamacare through and decided it was worth it.
I've seen candidates with similar records and capabilities win in landslides. It's a mistake to hold triumphs for non-existent victories.
Aug '11
Re: 2012 Landslide Ahead
Palaeologus: I don't disagree with your most of your assessment, Charles. I do think they were aware of the consequences of shoving Obamacare through and decided it was worth it.
I've seen candidates with similar records and capabilities win in landslides. It's a mistake to hold triumphs for non-existent victories. · Oct 16 at 5:29pm
Were these candidates legislators or executives? Votes can afford to be more forgiving with legislative political incompetence than executive because a legislator is one of many while an executive stands alone.
Jul '10
Re: 2012 Landslide Ahead
Jennifer Granholm, governor of MI in 2006, had a 59% job disapproval rating the month she was re-elected. I routinely refer to her as "Obama in a dress." She's smart, smug, lawyerly, better-than-your-average-pol looking, and has zip for real-world (academic, & government only) work experience.
Michigan is a few points bluer than the country at-large and 2006 was a Dem year. But she won 56-42 over a well-financed candidate (Amway head Dick DeVoss) in a two-way race. She would have had an excellent chance in say, 2004 Ohio, Wisconsin, or Colorado against a similar candidate.
Two points:
1.) Don't underestimate the "small c" conservative temperament of the American people. Many will vote for a known quantity they don't like if they deem the alternative too risky.
2.) The Giants beat the Pats. We have a real tailwind. The advantage is ours. That doesn't guarantee a win.
Aug '10
Re: 2012 Landslide Ahead
Barack and the media might just ignore the opponent and run against Bush and the fatcats. Dont shortchange the MSMs ability to bring in the vote. People are stupid and , as Claire once hinted, even Ashton Kutcher can convince a certain segment. So combine that with all of the entertainment industry, all of academia , and those millions working for the govt or the unions and you have a big bloc. Then you steal about 4% of the vote and you're elected (again)!
Dec '10
Re: 2012 Landslide Ahead
Dont forget reason #0: the Democrats had a very large and impassioned "Anybody But Clinton" faction, significantly including a lot of the party poohbahs who served as superdelegates, people who hated her husband for bringing their party disrepute and an end to its long run of Congressional control. The ABC Democrats enabled Obama's rise and set the standard for shielding him from critical scrutiny.
Nov '10
Re: 2012 Landslide Ahead
Of course I want to beat Obama, but I won't be joining any conga lines just because the next president has an 'R' after his name. Our problems are serious, and I just don't see Romney fixing them.
Oct '10
Re: 2012 Landslide Ahead
Well stated. There is a feeling one has that Obama will likely gain a second term. The current face of politics will remain. Those promoting class warfare and reliance on Big Government appear to be growing and are convinced there is no other way.
Remember it is not just Obama that needs to be voted down. A small cog in a very dysfuntional machine.
Apr '11
Re: 2012 Landslide Ahead
Never underestimate the tendency of the Republican Party to screw up a sure thing.
Jun '11
Re: 2012 Landslide Ahead
I agree with this post.
President Obama is a historically lousy president and politician.
Currently, he is dead in the water because the government has spent all it can. "Tax and spend" is his only idea. The spending binge is over and so is President Obama's ideas.
President Obama cannot fathom doing what is in the best interest of this country like:
Expedite drilling and shale oil exploration. Cut capital gains taxes. Cut corporate taxes. Cut the budget. (Remember "line by line") Waive expatriated corporate profits to bring capital home. Stop creating ridiculous regulations and cut them to the common sense level.
Now we are stuck for 18 months more of President Obama and the quest to increase the size and scope of the federal government even further.
Aug '11
Re: 2012 Landslide Ahead
One other example of Barack Obama and the Democratic party ineptness: the Republican party was on the canvas in 2009. Democratic policies not only got the Republicans back on their feet, but also able to land solid punches on the Obama and the Democrats.
Modern Democratic politics is best suited to a minority party where you can sit back and snipe at the majority party. The Democratic party has not adjusted to being the majority party. They continue to snipe at the minority Republicans (which is unseemly) and pass legislation which cannot be implemented (which is disastrous.)
Sep '10
Re: 2012 Landslide Ahead
FDR got reelected twice under worse circumstances. A Romney's candidacy will be exciting for his wife and kids, but virtually no one else. Obama has shown he and his team knows how to win elections. Romney has shown he has a knack for losing. If things don't change much I see a Republican House and Senate with Obama in the WH.
Aug '11
Re: 2012 Landslide Ahead
But FDR was an accomplished politician. Americans, in general, loved the FDR image: a confident, caring, empathetic father-figure. Bill Clinton projected a similar image but without the father-figure part. What image does Barack Obama project? That of a petulant child. That is not a winsome image.
As for the Obama team knowing how to win elections, that only goes for winning the first election. They will fail miserably in their re-election attempt. Following the Obama petulant image, they will attempt to smear the Republican candidate. But when you do this with a nasty smirk on your face, the attacks make you look small. The Obama campaign will drive independents away from Obama and away from the polling place. Not a bright idea.
Dec '10
Re: 2012 Landslide Ahead
What does the math say?
Take California. Under what circumstances will it flip Republican? Take Florida. No one can predict a Republican win, or loss, today. RealClearPolitics analyses polls to separate states like California from those like Florida. Their latest Electoral College count results in 201 for the Democrat, 191 for the Republican, and 146 are toss-ups (270 votes needed to win).
The Toss-ups divide into four blocs:
With a South sweep:
With a South split:
A very tight race as of today.
Edited on Oct 17, 2011 at 9:58amMay '10
Re: 2012 Landslide Ahead
The only barefoot penance President Obama is going to do, is a walk along the beach at Martha's Vineyard. His ego is too fragile for true remorse for his failures, he is the smartest man in the room, right guys?