2011 Predictions Survey: World
Part three of five in our Ricochet Predictions Survey forecasts the state of the world in 2011. Make sure to provide your own answers in the comments section -- and go back to fill out parts one and two of the survey!
Note: Omitted from the survey was a question explicitly asking for predictions regarding the state of the Middle East (e.g. will Israel strike Iran or vice versa?) because we believe that answers to question 11 -- the price of oil -- should take this into account.
8. Which country will be the next to suffer a banking collapse?
ROB LONG: To keep it fun, France.
PETER ROBINSON: Spain. Housing prices in Iberia are still sinking.
RICHARD EPSTEIN: Spain
MELANIE GRAHAM: Andorra
MIKE MURPHY: Portugal
MOLLIE HEMINGWAY: Portugal. And they don't seem to be running a very tight ship in Freedonia.
ADAM FREEDMAN: Portugal
TROY SENIK: Italy
BILL WALSH: Oh, let's go big. China.
JAMES POULOS: Japan
9. There are currently about 100,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan. Will there be a change (increase/decrease) in troop levels in Afghanistan in 2011? If so, by how much?
PETER ROBINSON: Troop levels will remain unchanged--if that's what Petraeus wishes. Because the good general is in a position to demand, and get, just what he wants.
BILL WALSH: Oh, heck, let's say even. I'd say there's about an even chance that he cuts troops if he needs to solidify his base or adds troops if he wants to look like a resolute warrior.
MELANIE GRAHAM: No increase
MOLLIE HEMINGWAY: No change
ADAM FREEDMAN: No change
MIKE MURPHY: No, flat. Or up 5%.
ROB LONG: Perversely, it will actually be an increase.
JAMES POULOS: Troop levels will increase by 15,000
DAVE CARTER: Afghanistan troop levels will see a token reduction of around 10,000 troops as Obama's domestic political problems collide with reality on the ground.
TROY SENIK: There will be a decrease of no more than 10,000.
RICHARD EPSTEIN: Down by about 25,000.
10. Will North & South Korea engage in war in 2011?
ROB LONG: Technically, of course, they're still at war. But no -- just some of the familiar skirmishes
PETER ROBINSON: Nope. China won't permit it.
MELANIE GRAHAM: No
DAVE CARTER: No. Small skirmishes, but no large scale war.
MIKE MURPHY: Not war. Blustering with the odd Howitzer round in thinly populated areas, maybe a minor naval skirmish. Difference this time will be the SoKors will unleash their very well armed forces to slap back harder this time.
TROY SENIK: No, but tensions will not markedly decline either.
RICHARD EPSTEIN: No
TEVI TROY: North Korea will continue its belligerency towards the South in 2011, as the Obama administration will continue to give the North no incentive to stop its behavior.
BILL WALSH: No
JAMES POULOS: Not unless the South chooses war.
MOLLIE HEMINGWAY: No
ADAM FREEDMAN: No
11. As of the writing of this survey, the price per barrel of oil is just over $90. What will the price of oil be in December 2011?
MOLLIE HEMINGWAY: $75 (here's why)
BILL WALSH: $78
JAMES POULOS: $80
PETER ROBINSON: About $80. New technology for extracting natural gas from shale will transform the energy markets, reducing the demand for oil. (I read that someplace.)
RICHARD EPSTEIN: $90, with ups and downs.
MIKE MURPHY: $97
ROB LONG: Just about $100.
TEVI TROY: Gas will hit $105, and the current relative quiet in the media about the high price of gas will continue, as long as a Democratic president remains in the White House.
ADAM FREEDMAN: $105
TROY SENIK: $115
MELANIE GRAHAM: $120
- Comment (13)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (3)
Comments :
Aug '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: World
I think #11 is highly dependent on:
Jul '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: World
Misthiocracy: I think #11 is highly dependent on: · Jan 4 at 12:12pm
Hate to say it, but the enviro's have a point about shale oil. And it uses enormous amounts of water, which is in short supply in the US.
Aug '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: World
Kenneth
Hate to say it, but the enviro's have a point about shale oil. And it uses enormous amounts of water, which is in short supply in the US.
How short is the US water supply ? Appears that the states where they are looking for shale oil in the US, the Dakotas, etc. are all bisected by the MIssouri River. Up until the last month, the River has been steadily flowing high,say 75-100,000 cfs for the past year. To put that into perspective, that means that in any given recent quarter, that 5.7 trillion gallons flow by my office, headed for New Orleans. Does that constitute a shortage ? Shortages of water are myth. Artificial ones are for the Delta smelt.
There is always the same amount of water on the earth.
Aug '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: World
Kenneth
Misthiocracy: I think #11 is highly dependent on: · Jan 4 at 12:12pm
Hate to say it, but the enviro's have a point about shale oil. And it uses enormous amounts of water, which is in short supply in the US. · Jan 4 at 12:18pm
Water sure ain't in short supply in northern Alberta. Neither is land. Even a "large" area polluted by the oil sands is miniscule in comparison to the total land area up there.
Here's a book for y'all: Ethical Oil: The Case for Canada's Oil Sands
Oct '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: World
8.) Portugal will be the next to suffer a banking collapse.
9.) There will be no significant change in American troop levels in Afghanistan.
10.) Tensions between North and South Korea will remain the same.
11.) The price of oil will be around $100 per barrel by December 2011, with no relief in sight. Barack Obama and the left remain determined to effectively destroy domestic oil production.
Edited on Jan 4, 2011 at 12:51pmOct '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: World
Misthiocracy
Kenneth
Misthiocracy: I think #11 is highly dependent on: · Jan 4 at 12:12pm
Hate to say it, but the enviro's have a point about shale oil. And it uses enormous amounts of water, which is in short supply in the US. · Jan 4 at 12:18pm
Water sure ain't in short supply in northern Alberta. Neither is land. Even a "large" area polluted by the oil sands is miniscule in comparison to the total land area up there.
Here's a book for y'all: Ethical Oil: The Case for Canada's Oil Sands · Jan 4 at 12:44pm
Indeed, the sheer size of Alberta is staggering. I didn't really appreciate that fact until I visited Alberta for the first time seven years ago. As to enviro hand-wringing: pshaw.
Aug '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: World
Canadian population density maps are fun to contemplate. Shows you just how much of The Great White North is completely uninhabited.
The area where the oil sands are located doesn't even register on the population map, and it's one of the fastest-growing spots in the country.
Sep '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: World
Kenneth
Misthiocracy: I think #11 is highly dependent on: · Jan 4 at 12:12pm
Hate to say it, but the enviro's have a point about shale oil. And it uses enormous amounts of water, which is in short supply in the US. · Jan 4 at 12:18pm
Shame on you Kenneth for drinking the environmental Kool-Aid on shale.
Aug '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: World
Now you've gone and poked at one of my personal pet peeves.
THERE IS NOTHING WRONG WITH KOOL-AID!!!
It's a fine way to rehydrate for pennies-a-glass, and you get to control the amount of sugar you use to boot (I sweeten it with Sugar Twin, myself).
Please, Pseudo, please join my crusade to change that idiom to "Drinking the Flavor-Aid", since Flavor-Aid is what they actually drank at Jonestown.
;-)
Jan '11
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: World
Canada, population density-wise, is like Chile laying down for a rest on the 49th parallel.
The oilsands are essentially a big part of the Canadian economic engine now that Ontario's manufacturing (esp automobiles) has taken a big hit. The leftish provinces would like to shut the oilsands down, but are quite happy to continue taking the transfer payments from Alberta's petrochemical revenue.
Dec '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: World
The range of predictions seems fine.
The energy issue is more complex, obviously, and is more empirical, less political. If the world economy is in better shape, demand will be higher and the price will be higher, because supply is stunted by politics.
The water budgets for oil sands extraction operations are irrelevant, as it is a relatively simple matter to implement serious water recycling in an extraction operation. It's right there; it's not as if you have to go looking for it. An individual operation can be slated/permitted for 90 milion gallons per day, enough for a city, but actual withdrawal is very variable. The reclamation aspects of oil sands extraction are more important than the water budgets. That, in my opinion, is the conservative position. With respect to resource extraction, I advocate the "Cat In The Hat" approach. When you are done, you clean up and properly reclaim your mess, up to and including the moss covered three handled family credenza. It's not a conservative position for society, as a whole to have to come behind an extraction operation and clean up the mess, on the public dime. Those are hidden, back-end costs.
Sep '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: World
Obamacare in Florida: GatorAid.
Aug '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: World
Peter's right. As a member of the energy finance community, I assure you that the next big energy supply revolution will be spurred by shale gas. As a result of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing techniques, the BTUs available for extraction have grown by leaps and bounds, and it's an underreported story. The US is going to become significantly more energy independent in the next few years. Today, you can buy a natural gas compressor and install it on the wall of your garage to fill your CNG fueled car (you can currently choose between exactly one model of car). There is no reason why the US couldn't and shouldn't convert much of its fleet and short-range vehicles to CNG. Once there is a critical mass of private vehicles, the filling stations will come.