2011 Predictions Survey: Politics
Last week the editors sent out a 2011 Predictions Survey to the Ricochet contributors soliciting their forecasts for the year to come. Below, part one of five: politics. Read our contributors' responses and then be sure to chime in with your own predictions. In December 2011, we'll revisit your answers and award a special prize to the most prescient Ricochet member!
- Who will be the leading GOP presidential candidate by the end of 2011?
ROB LONG: Chris Christie. He's the anti-Obama.
MELANIE GRAHAM: Chris Christie
JAMES POULOS: Chris Christie
DAVE CARTER: Palin, unless Christie gets into the mix. The nomination could be his if he wanted it.
PETER ROBINSON: Sarah Palin, although she still won't win the nomination
MIKE MURPHY: NOT CHRISTINE O'DONNELL! It will be muddy, with Romney just slightly in front.
TROY SENIK: There will be a Howard Dean-John Kerry dynamic between Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney.
BILL WALSH: Fred Thompson
RICHARD EPSTEIN: Mitch Daniels
ADAM FREEDMAN: Mitch Daniels
MOLLIE HEMINGWAY: I'm inclined to think it will be someone we wouldn't describe as “charismatic” or “exciting.” Now that Americans have had a taste of these traits, we might want someone for whom the words “accountant,” “judicious” or “experienced with more than the handling of a large campaign” might apply. Mitch Daniels.
2. Will Hillary Clinton resign from her position as Secretary of State?
ROB LONG: Yes! As I predicted way way back in June. She's gone. To write a book. And to think about campaigning for 2012.
BILL WALSH: Yes
ADAM FREEDMAN: Yes
MELANIE GRAHAM: No
DAVE CARTER: No
MIKE MURPHY: Not til 2013.
TROY SENIK: No
PETER ROBINSON: She will leave office with President Obama in January 2013.
RICHARD EPSTEIN: Nope
TEVI TROY: Hillary Clinton will defy all expectations and stay at the State Department for the rest of the Obama administration, traveling frequently in order to stay away from Bill’s shenanigans and Obama’s low approval ratings.
JAMES POULOS: No
MOLLIE HEMINGWAY: It depends on what the unemployment rate is in August
3. Will ObamaCare be repealed, defunded, or otherwise thwarted?
ROB LONG: Worse: it'll be "fixed" by a Republican congress.
PETER ROBINSON: Thwarted for two years. Repealed in January 2013.
MELANIE GRAHAM: Yes
DAVE CARTER: Obamacare will be defunded to some degree. Repeal will come only after he leaves office.
MIKE MURPHY: Curbed, but still mostly in force.
TROY SENIK: It will not be repealed, but will be meaningfully hamstrung by the GOP Congress.
RICHARD EPSTEIN: Defunded is likely.
TEVI TROY: House Republicans will harass HHS officials with a steady stream of hearings, investigations, and document requests, but the stream of implementation regulations from HHS implementing the new health law will continue.
BILL WALSH: Yes. (Voice of hope rather than experience?)
JAMES POULOS: Congressional Republicans will fight hard for small victories. In a narrowly written split opinion with concurrences, the Supreme Court will rule the individual mandate unconstitutional, setting up a second fight in Congress over the law's remnants
MOLLIE HEMINGWAY: Unfortunately, I have absolutely zero confidence in the ability of the new Republican majority in the House to do any of these things. I hope they surprise me.
ADAM FREEDMAN: Yes (struck down by the Supreme Court in 2011 or 2012)
4. Who will be the most prominent defector from the Left?
ROB LONG: It should be Obama. But he's not that smart.
PETER ROBINSON: David Cameron, who by the end of 2011 may actually have become a conservative.
MELANIE GRAHAM: Hillary Clinton
DAVE CARTER: The most prominent detector from the left: The American public.
MIKE MURPHY: Rob Long.
TROY SENIK: David Gergen, who is constantly in the process of defecting from what the rest of the public rejected six months ago.
BILL WALSH: A high-ranking Chinese intelligence agent.
MOLLIE HEMINGWAY: I think President Obama might pull hard right here in the next few months.
ADAM FREEDMAN: Eric Holder
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Comments :
Oct '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: Politics
1.) Sarah Palin will be the front-runner for the Republican nomination by the end of 2011. Chris Christie will not run and Mitch Daniels has alienated too many social conservatives.
2.) Yes, Hillary Clinton will resign as Secretary of State.
3.) ObamaCare will be defunded and otherwise thwarted in 2011, fully repealed in 2013.
4.) Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) will be the most prominent defector from the left, but that will not improve his re-election chances for next year.
Jan '11
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: Politics
Forget Long as a defector, he doesn't know how to triangulate :-) Palin will never work as a presidential candidate - for the same reason that Hillary couldn't grab the brass ring that was nearly certainly easily hers. Palin serves a great role as a sort of stalking horse for the Republican Party, but beyond that, fuggetaboudit. Christie is full of double-plus awesomeness, and his candid speech and larger than life persona undoubtably makes him the person to watch for the next few years. Re Obamacare - the smart thing to do for the 'Pubs would be to have something ready to roll out in lieu of the act - and repeal it. If the Republicans "fix it" or tinker with it, it will always be known as "Obama"care, and be viewed as a huge positive legacy (that is, if the Repubs choose to make it workable).
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: Politics
Hey! Erik! You're our first member of 2011! Welcome.
(And you're wrong about me: triangulation is all I know....)
Agree about Obamacare, but I worry we're going to "fix" it.
Dec '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: Politics
2. Will Hillary Clinton resign from her position as Secretary of State?
ROB LONG: Yes! As I predicted way way back in June. She's gone. To write a book. And to think about campaigning for 2012.
Agreed, but you left something out. Yet another face lift!
3. Will ObamaCare be repealed, defunded, or otherwise thwarted?
4. Who will be the most prominent defector from the Left?
Jan '11
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: Politics
Thank you Mr Long! I jest, and enjoy the good-natured ribbing that you sustain on the Podcasts in that regard. RE Obamacare, I view it as analogous to the 911 First Responders Bill issues. The general public doesn't care about nuances and excess stuff crammed into the ugsome bill - rather they just see the Repubs as the party of no, yet again. (Not that no is necessarily a bad thing!) I'm from Canada (whatever street that's on), and was interested to hear about your Russell Peters collab. He's done well. I hope you've been able to watch a lot of "Corner Gas" - pretty much the only thing on television worth watching to come out of this northern clime. (I still don't understand why we write like Elizabethans on the internet). Cheers.
Jul '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: Politics
So that's the state of the GOP? That rabid social-cons can keep the most qualified candidate out in favor of a reality-show mom so vapid she got punked by Katie Couric?
Might be time for a 3rd party, after all.
Jul '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: Politics
Vuvuzela
Jan 3 at 12:01pm
Bolton doesn't stand a chance. Americans couldn't care less about foreign policy.
And that mustache is a total deal-breaker....
Jan '11
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: Politics
Kenneth, I agree @1209. Americans are a naturally independent people, ready to put out a hand to a friend, or a boot to the opposite. I think there is a degree of tiredness re the "go along to get along" attitude in the past few years, and the next leader to surface (man or woman) will have a lot of machismo. Christie fits that bill.
Oct '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: Politics
I hope Christie runs, but i don't think he will. I love Mitch Daniels, but don't forget Tim Pawlenty, who is under-rated.
Seriously, I don't see how Mitt Romney has a chance. That is thinking according to the old model, where the GOP nominates the person who is next in line. Those days are over. And don't forget, the health care bill will likely be a major issue, and Mitt Romney will get destroyed on that alone.
Not to mention, Romney does not know anything about economics. He understands business, which is different.
If he is the nominee, I might leave the party.
Edited on Jan 3, 2011 at 12:39pmDec '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: Politics
Is there anyplace safe for social cons? I'm a social conservative in every measurable way and yet Giuliani was my guy in 2008 because he claimed to believe that Roe v Wade was bad law (a position which conforms with most conservative thinking - no?). I still believe he could have beat Obama like a drum, given his gloves off style (apologies for the mixed metaphors). I was, however, perplexed by his strategy and disappointed to learn of his irresponsible use of campaign funds. For the 2012 race I'm already leaning to Mitch Daniels without knowing much of what he thinks about social policy. The GOP needs an adult, competent, fiscally sane, preferably governor who can explain conservative positions. Therefore:
1. Mitch Daniels
2. No. I thought she would resign after one of the first of many foreign policy embarrassments, but when she didn't, I became convinced she's in for the duration.
3. Mixed review on Obamacare. Some thwarting through de-funding. We will have to cope with some regulatory nightmares. Hopefully the Supremes will nullify, but I have no idea about the time-frame.
4. Joe Lieberman becomes a Republican. (I don't really believe that.)
Jun '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: Politics
1. Christie...if not perhaps Romney if he can demonstrate that he can get angry about something...anything...if not watch out for Marco Rubio only because Obama proved that a junior senator with little experience on the Hill can still be a viable candidate and Republicans could use the Hispanic vote.
2. Hillary will visit Iran but then be imprisoned as a spy. Obama will ask Bill Clinton to extricate her and he will begrudgingly oblige but the Iranians will imprison him, too. Finally, Jimmy Carter will offer to go and even though Obama will reject the notion he will go anyway. While Carter is there he will give the Iranians some important tips on how to make their nuclear reactors more efficient and will forget why he went to Iran in the first place.
3. Defunded
4. Dennis Kucinich - but it will only be an obvious ploy because his district will have been redrawn to favor a Republican candidate. When he loses in the Republican primary he will offer his services to SETI.
Jun '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: Politics
1. Who will be the leading GOP presidential candidate by the end of 2011?
Mitt Romney, mainly because he doesn't scare anybody, and he's been studying for the test for three years.
2. Will Hillary Clinton resign from her position as Secretary of State?
She'll jump, to avoid being pushed. Fair or not, she'll end up blamed for the poor secrecy at the State Dept. I think she's looking for her soft landing right now.
3. Will ObamaCare be repealed, defunded, or otherwise thwarted?
Not in any major way. Not until 2013.
4. Who will be the most prominent defector from the Left?
It's a Catch 22. If they defect, nobody on the left will admit that they were ever prominent.
Oct '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: Politics
Kenneth
So that's the state of the GOP? That rabid social-cons can keep the most qualified candidate out in favor of a reality-show mom so vapid she got punked by Katie Couric?
Might be time for a 3rd party, after all. · Jan 3 at 12:05pm
I suppose that answers this question I posed in Emily's thread last week:
Do Palin's social background and personal quirks so offend her right-of-center detractors that they will vote Democrat should she be the GOP presidential nominee in 2012?
After all, a vote for any third party will be a de facto vote for the Democrats.
What of Sarah Plain's invaluable contributions to the conservative cause over the past two years? Her on-point criticisms of ObamaCare death panels and reckless deficit spending?
Again, what comes from her conservative critics are repeated references to a heavily-edited interview from two years ago, personal attacks, and inferences that she lacks the proper social pedigree.
Oct '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: Politics
And whatever the virtues of Mitch Daniels - and I agree that he has been a fine governor and would be a good president - basic political strategy dictates that one should not go out of his way to alienate a significant part of one's electoral base. Rudy Giuliani, who was no social conservative, understood that. If Daniels has failed to grasp that concept at this point, it does not bode well for his electoral aspirations.
Edited on Jan 3, 2011 at 1:30pmDec '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: Politics
The problem with a potential run by Palin isn't who she is, IMO. It is that her candidacy would be *about* who she is, when we need the country to focus on the dangers from the Left. I pray for a Republican candidate who makes clear the distinctions between the Obama-left agenda and the conservative-American solutions. That's it. Get everything else out of the discussion.
Jul '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: Politics
Mike LaRoche
Kenneth
So that's the state of the GOP? That rabid social-cons can keep the most qualified candidate out in favor of a reality-show mom so vapid she got punked by Katie Couric?
Might be time for a 3rd party, after all. · Jan 3 at 12:05pm
I suppose that answers this question I posed in Emily's thread last week:
Do Palin's social background and personal quirks so offend her right-of-center detractors that they will vote Democrat should she be the GOP presidential nominee in 2012?
It has nothing to do with her "social background". It's about her ignorance and her hollow vanity - so hollow that she apparently feels no need to improve her knowledge, so long as the crowds continue to cheer her empty, childish rhetoric and buy her awful, ghost-written, self-congratulatory books.
And it's about the fact that if she becomes the nominee, she will doom us to four more years of Obama. But that doesn't appear to register with her, as she now exists in a bubble of adulation, just as Obama did in 2008.
Jun '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: Politics
Sarah Palin? She's running for Secretary of the Interior, isn't she? I believe there's a series of infomercials on this now appearing on TLC.
I'm with Kenneth on this. God help us if Palin is the dominant front runner at the end of 2011. She is not a student of history and her intellectual bandwidth is questionable. Her work to re-energize the conservative movement has been admirable but we need someone who will command authority on the world stage especially standing up to adversaries and dealing with the complex relationship we have with China. Gingrich and Romney fit that bill...not too many others qualify in that regard.
Jun '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: Politics
1. Mitt Romney because Republican party hacks lack imagination. Remember Bob Dole?
2. Clinton will resign if Obama's approvals fall convincingly below 40%.
3. Obamacare will be hamstrung, but not repealed. It will eventually morph into its own agency which will linger into eternity like the undead.
4. James Carville will defect and be labeled a racist. White, male, southern, and married to a Republican . . . . racist!
Jan '11
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: Politics
Re Clinton resigning - she won't unless it is convenient for her to fall on her sword. Say what you like - but I think she's classy and wouldn't embarrass Obama.
Sep '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: Politics
1. I've said it before in similar posts and here again: Marco Rubio/Star Parker, Pres./VP. Both extremely articulate, with compelling life stories to tell, and both immune to having the race card played against them.
Seriously though, probably Romney, for the reason Paules gave, though my personal choice would be Fred Thompson.
2. From your lips to God's ears, may she be ever so humble.
3. Obamacare will incur a rubber-bullet wound or two, but nothing fatal, even with Repub control of Congress and the White House.
4. Like Paules, I, too, thought of Carville. He's now somewhat of a malcontent Democrat.