2011 Predictions Survey: Nation
Below, part two of five in our Ricochet Predictions Survey addresses expectations for the state of the nation in 2011. (Be sure to take a look at part one of the survey here.)
5. What will the unemployment rate be at the end of 2011?
TROY SENIK: 8.5%
MOLLIE HEMINGWAY: 8.75%
TEVI TROY: The unemployment rate will be 8.9% at the end of 2011, and the Obama administration will somehow see unemployment going under 9 percent as “proof” that a recovery is underway.
ADAM FREEDMAN: 9%
ROB LONG: Same, roughly, as it is today -- somewhere between 9 and 10%
PETER ROBINSON: Within half a percentage point, just what it is today.
RICHARD EPSTEIN: 9.5%, sigh.
BILL WALSH: 9.5%
DAVE CARTER: 9.8% (Like the rent: "too damn high")
JAMES POULOS: 11% -- to the delight of headline writers everywhere
MELANIE GRAHAM: 15%
6. Will the federal government bail out bankrupt states?
ROB LONG: Yes. Sadly. The states Obama needs just happen to be the states in trouble. It's probably be a version of what the EU is doing with its bankrupt members: create a "co-signing" authority to guarantee state bonds.
MELANIE GRAHAM: Yes
ADAM FREEDMAN: Yes
DAVE CARTER: Yes. The Republican majority in the House will try to thwart it, but Obama and Reid will employ extra-constitutional measures through the administrative branch, sparking a serious fight with further negative repercussions for the left.
MOLLIE HEMINGWAY: Is it a bad idea? Yes. So odds are pretty good they will. In all seriousness, I don't think the effort toward bailout will succeed. How many Nebraskans will be cool with helping Californians avoid responsibility for their own bad decisions?
PETER ROBINSON: Certainly not.
MIKE MURPHY: No, but there will be Medicaid emergency money.
TROY SENIK: Not through direct legislative action, but they will find a backdoor mechanism, perhaps through the administrative state.
RICHARD EPSTEIN: No
TEVI TROY: The federal government will propose a plan to bail out states in 2011, only to realize that the federal government needs a bail out more than most states do.
BILL WALSH: No. (Please, God.)
JAMES POULOS: Nearly. But Tea Party pressure will destroy a last-minute agreement to do so
7. Will the TSA unionize in 2011?
ROB LONG: Nope
RICHARD EPSTEIN: No
MELANIE GRAHAM: No
BILL WALSH: Nah, too soon after scan-and-grope. Maybe 2012.
TEVI TROY: The Republican House and the Democratic Senate will block TSA unionization in 2011, as Mitch McConnell manages to attract enough vulnerable 2012 Democratic Senators to have a working majority on security issues.
PETER ROBINSON: Very likely.
DAVE CARTER: You mean they haven't already? Guns get through but nail clippers don't, and they're not unionized? You're kidding, right?
TROY SENIK: Yes
JAMES POULOS: Yes. A bill will then be brought to a vote to overhaul the TSA and militarize airport security.
MOLLIE HEMINGWAY: Yes
ADAM FREEDMAN: Yes
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Comments :
Jan '11
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: Nation
Re unemployment - true unemployment or reported unemployment? There are many ways to keep the figures lower than the blood-curdling truth Stats will be juiced as they always have - besides unemployment, the best known example is reported inflation - where those pesky items like food and fuel are excluded.
Jan '11
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: Nation
6. Will the federal government bail out bankrupt states?
If they voted blue, let them stew.
It's very important to insist, as matter of conservative policy, that progressives own their failures. The process of making them own those failures will be educational for the electorate and will put the amnesiac progressive Left on the defensive, where it belongs.
Conservatives are no longer interested in being the tax-collectors of Leftist fantasies and the bailbondsmen of the welfare state.
If you're not on offense, you're on defense.
Or, as Napoleon said, "If you have a cannon, shoot it!"
Edited on Jan 3, 2011 at 5:25pmJun '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: Nation
5. Which unemployment rate? The real one? Or the phony one that is most often presented to the American public? The real one: 18 to 20%
6. Yes...but it will be called a job creation bill.
7. Yes...and instead of screening you at the airport they will just come to your house unannounced to invasively search you and your entire family whether you are booked to travel or not.
Oct '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: Nation
5.) The unemployment rate will linger around 9.8%.
6.) There will be no bailouts of bankrupt states. Voters from conservative states will tolerate no further raids upon the federal treasury.
7.) The TSA will not unionize. But if it does, chances are the agency will be disbanded or defunded after January 2013.
Aug '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: Nation
5. The government unemployment static is a lie so the question illerevent. Who can bet on the unemployment rate when the government has a vested interest in a lower rate? Who can believe the Federal Government numbers? Feel free to wager your money on Intrade.
http://www.intrade.com/
I will continue to wager on online at poker sites, no thanks to John McCain.
6. Yes. I live in CA and we are already getting money from the Feds. The question is what will the states bailing out CA do?
7. Yes. The more government union members the more Democratic votes.
Edited on Jan 4, 2011 at 12:52amAug '10
Re: 2011 Predictions Survey: Nation
5) Higher than 10 per cent. I don't want to predict how much higher than 10 per cent, but it'll definitely be higher than 10 per cent.
6) Yes, and in the most disruptive, ad hoc and short-sighted manner imaginable, with zero oversight, zero conditions, lots of political favoritism. (If the feds MUST bail out the states, the GOP should fight to create a SYSTEM for distributing aid to the states, based on population or something like that. Something like Canada's equalization system. It's a terrible system, but it's marginally better than politically-motivated ad hoc bailouts.)
7) Yes. How on Earth could a civilian government agency possibly remain ununionized for very long? The only way to keep it non-union would be to militarize it.