2011 Crystal Ball Award: Politics
At the beginning of the year, we published the results of our five-part 2011 predictions survey with the promise that we'd revisit the surveys in December to award the Ricochet Crystal Ball award to the most prescient Contributors and Members. Part I of the survey – politics – is re-posted below.
- Who will be the leading GOP presidential candidate by the end of 2011?
ROB LONG: Chris Christie. He's the anti-Obama.
MELANIE GRAHAM: Chris Christie
JAMES POULOS: Chris Christie
DAVE CARTER: Palin, unless Christie gets into the mix. The nomination could be his if he wanted it.
PETER ROBINSON: Sarah Palin, although she still won't win the nomination
MIKE MURPHY: NOT CHRISTINE O'DONNELL! It will be muddy, with Romney just slightly in front.
TROY SENIK: There will be a Howard Dean-John Kerry dynamic between Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney.
BILL WALSH: Fred Thompson
RICHARD EPSTEIN: Mitch Daniels
ADAM FREEDMAN: Mitch Daniels
MOLLIE HEMINGWAY: I'm inclined to think it will be someone we wouldn't describe as “charismatic” or “exciting.” Now that Americans have had a taste of these traits, we might want someone for whom the words “accountant,” “judicious” or “experienced with more than the handling of a large campaign” might apply. Mitch Daniels.
2. Will Hillary Clinton resign from her position as Secretary of State?
ROB LONG: Yes! As I predicted way way back in June. She's gone. To write a book. And to think about campaigning for 2012.
BILL WALSH: Yes
ADAM FREEDMAN: Yes
MELANIE GRAHAM: No
DAVE CARTER: No
MIKE MURPHY: Not til 2013.
TROY SENIK: No
PETER ROBINSON: She will leave office with President Obama in January 2013.
RICHARD EPSTEIN: Nope
TEVI TROY: Hillary Clinton will defy all expectations and stay at the State Department for the rest of the Obama administration, traveling frequently in order to stay away from Bill’s shenanigans and Obama’s low approval ratings.
JAMES POULOS: No
MOLLIE HEMINGWAY: It depends on what the unemployment rate is in August
3. Will ObamaCare be repealed, defunded, or otherwise thwarted?
ROB LONG: Worse: it'll be "fixed" by a Republican congress.
PETER ROBINSON: Thwarted for two years. Repealed in January 2013.
MELANIE GRAHAM: Yes
DAVE CARTER: Obamacare will be defunded to some degree. Repeal will come only after he leaves office.
MIKE MURPHY: Curbed, but still mostly in force.
TROY SENIK: It will not be repealed, but will be meaningfully hamstrung by the GOP Congress.
RICHARD EPSTEIN: Defunded is likely.
TEVI TROY: House Republicans will harass HHS officials with a steady stream of hearings, investigations, and document requests, but the stream of implementation regulations from HHS implementing the new health law will continue.
BILL WALSH: Yes. (Voice of hope rather than experience?)
JAMES POULOS: Congressional Republicans will fight hard for small victories. In a narrowly written split opinion with concurrences, the Supreme Court will rule the individual mandate unconstitutional, setting up a second fight in Congress over the law's remnants
MOLLIE HEMINGWAY: Unfortunately, I have absolutely zero confidence in the ability of the new Republican majority in the House to do any of these things. I hope they surprise me.
ADAM FREEDMAN: Yes (struck down by the Supreme Court in 2011 or 2012)
4. Who will be the most prominent defector from the Left?
ROB LONG: It should be Obama. But he's not that smart.
PETER ROBINSON: David Cameron, who by the end of 2011 may actually have become a conservative.
MELANIE GRAHAM: Hillary Clinton
DAVE CARTER: The most prominent detector from the left: The American public.
MIKE MURPHY: Rob Long.
TROY SENIK: David Gergen, who is constantly in the process of defecting from what the rest of the public rejected six months ago.
BILL WALSH: A high-ranking Chinese intelligence agent.
The Crystal Ball Award for the politics segment of the survey goes to Contributors Troy Senik and Mike Murphy–who will have to content themselves with a Ricochet glory badge–and Members etoiledunord and ~Paules–who each win one free month of Ricochet. Congratulations on your clairvoyance!
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Comments :
Mar '11
Re: 2011 Crystal Ball Award: Politics
Well, Peter was almost right about Mr Cameron - he should get some kinda prize.
Mar '11
Re: 2011 Crystal Ball Award: Politics
I have always retained a serious distaste for Mr. Murphy but there is no denying his acumen and shrewdness when it comes to predicting politics.
Jan '11
Re: 2011 Crystal Ball Award: Politics
Boy, Troy Senik called the Newt-Mitt thing, didn't he?
I'm afraid to ask him about the election ...
Re: 2011 Crystal Ball Award: Politics
Why thanks, David.
Harrumph. Honorable mention? Would that be out of the question?
Apr '11
Re: 2011 Crystal Ball Award: Politics
Peter Robinson
Why thanks, David.
Harrumph. Honorable mention? Would that be out of the question? · Dec 27 at 1:28pm
It was good, but not in the same league as Murphy's prediction. Romney has only been a really safe bet for about a half year now, judging by Intrade.
Jan '11
Re: 2011 Crystal Ball Award: Politics
I feel much the same.
Mr. Murphy is probably always in salesman mode and I'm probably not strong enough to hear the true sausage making that is politics. I often do not enjoy hearing what he says but if I ever needed to make some sausage Mr. Murphy seems to know his stuff.
btw Nice Avatar
Jun '10
Re: 2011 Crystal Ball Award: Politics
Peter Robinson
Why thanks, David.
Harrumph. Honorable mention? Would that be out of the question? · Dec 27 at 1:28pm
I'm thinking something more like "Honorable Lucky Guess." But you obviously had some insight most of us missed.
Mar '11
Re: 2011 Crystal Ball Award: Politics
Yeah...ok.: I feel much the same.
Mr. Murphy is probably always in salesman mode and I'm probably not strong enough to hear the true sausage making that is politics. I often do not enjoy hearing what he says but if I ever needed to make some sausage Mr. Murphy seems to know his stuff.
btw Nice Avatar · Dec 27 at 7:06pm
Thank you, it just seemed to fit my mood in 2011. Hopefully 2012 will bring us conservatives something uplifting and not more of the same. Fingers crossed.
May '10
Re: 2011 Crystal Ball Award: Politics
I have to say that Troy's prescience was indeed impressive. Where are the 2012 predictions now?