2011 Crystal Ball Award: Nation
Yesterday we crowned Troy Senik and Mike Murphy the Crystal Ball Award recipients in the political predictions division. Today we look back at what our Contributors predicted back in January would happen in domestic affairs throughout the year.
5. What will the unemployment rate be at the end of 2011?
TROY SENIK: 8.5%
MOLLIE HEMINGWAY: 8.75%
TEVI TROY: The unemployment rate will be 8.9% at the end of 2011, and the Obama administration will somehow see unemployment going under 9 percent as “proof” that a recovery is underway.
ADAM FREEDMAN: 9%
ROB LONG: Same, roughly, as it is today -- somewhere between 9 and 10%
PETER ROBINSON: Within half a percentage point, just what it is today [unemployment rate 9.4% in Dec, 2010].
RICHARD EPSTEIN: 9.5%, sigh.
BILL WALSH: 9.5%
DAVE CARTER: 9.8% (Like the rent: "too damn high")
JAMES POULOS: 11% -- to the delight of headline writers everywhere
MELANIE GRAHAM: 15%
6. Will the federal government bail out bankrupt states?
ROB LONG: Yes. Sadly. The states Obama needs just happen to be the states in trouble. It's probably be a version of what the EU is doing with its bankrupt members: create a "co-signing" authority to guarantee state bonds.
MELANIE GRAHAM: Yes
ADAM FREEDMAN: Yes
DAVE CARTER: Yes. The Republican majority in the House will try to thwart it, but Obama and Reid will employ extra-constitutional measures through the administrative branch, sparking a serious fight with further negative repercussions for the left.
MOLLIE HEMINGWAY: Is it a bad idea? Yes. So odds are pretty good they will. In all seriousness, I don't think the effort toward bailout will succeed. How many Nebraskans will be cool with helping Californians avoid responsibility for their own bad decisions?
PETER ROBINSON: Certainly not.
MIKE MURPHY: No, but there will be Medicaid emergency money.
TROY SENIK: Not through direct legislative action, but they will find a backdoor mechanism, perhaps through the administrative state.
RICHARD EPSTEIN: No
TEVI TROY: The federal government will propose a plan to bail out states in 2011, only to realize that the federal government needs a bail out more than most states do.
BILL WALSH: No. (Please, God.)
JAMES POULOS: Nearly. But Tea Party pressure will destroy a last-minute agreement to do so
7. Will the TSA unionize in 2011?
ROB LONG: Nope
RICHARD EPSTEIN: No
MELANIE GRAHAM: No
BILL WALSH: Nah, too soon after scan-and-grope. Maybe 2012.
TEVI TROY: The Republican House and the Democratic Senate will block TSA unionization in 2011, as Mitch McConnell manages to attract enough vulnerable 2012 Democratic Senators to have a working majority on security issues.
PETER ROBINSON: Very likely.
DAVE CARTER: You mean they haven't already? Guns get through but nail clippers don't, and they're not unionized? You're kidding, right?
TROY SENIK: Yes
JAMES POULOS: Yes. A bill will then be brought to a vote to overhaul the TSA and militarize airport security.
MOLLIE HEMINGWAY: Yes
ADAM FREEDMAN: Yes
Answer Key:
5. Unemployment rate (as of Nov, 2011): 8.6%
6. No, the Senate rejected Obama's state govt bailout in October.
7. Yes, the TSA was granted union privileges in February
And the winner of the Ricochet Crystal Ball Award for the nation segment of the survey goes to my fellow editor Mollie Hemingway. Congratulations, Mollie!
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Comments :
Re: 2011 Crystal Ball Award: Nation
Hey, it's only the 28th. I have three more long days to be proven right.
Aug '10
Re: 2011 Crystal Ball Award: Nation
Congratulations Mollie ,
Now that prestigious award and $ 3.58 will still get you a cup of coffee.
This false unemployment number trope has to be dealt with . We all know the real number, even the Bureau of Labor Statistics lets on what the real number is.
This is akin to fantasy to not count those no longer looking, those stuck in part time, and the underemployed.
Mar '11
Re: 2011 Crystal Ball Award: Nation
Flownover is right. The unemployment number is artificially low, by 2-4%. A LOT of people have just stopped trying, or have settled for limited employment.
Re: 2011 Crystal Ball Award: Nation
I agree. And it's probably low by a whole lot more than 4%. But as far as these predictions go, let's just assume the artificial deflation is factored into them.
Re: 2011 Crystal Ball Award: Nation
Whoo hoo! I'd like to thank everyone who helped me win this section of the survey, particularly Obama and the members of Congress for their incompetence.
Oct '10
Re: 2011 Crystal Ball Award: Nation
"7. Yes, the TSA was granted union privileges in February"
I'm going to be sick; somehow I missed that. A unionized national police force? American public unions do not encourage loyalty to society or concern for the public good. They care only for themselves.
May '11
Re: 2011 Crystal Ball Award: Nation
So Mollie, would you like to go to the races next Ladies Day? Ho
May '11
Re: 2011 Crystal Ball Award: Nation
Mis-post on the Ho - shoulda been "Howzabout the OTB with Troy?"