Duane, Ricochet's editors pointed out your post on Ricochet's Facebook page asking for my reaction to these op-eds about Turkey. Here's my take, for now. I just wrote this piece, Murky in Turkey, for City Journal.
And I've just sent a longer piece about the Turkish-Brazilian nuclear deal with Iran to World Affairs Journal, which should be published in their next issue. I guess the world will have to wait for my views about that until they run it.
I broadly agree with the editorialists mentioned on Powerline: something significant and ominous is happening here. I would stress two things in addition, though. The first, as I say in my City Journal piece, is how little we understand about what, precisely, is going on.
I want to know exactly what the relationship is between the AKP and the İHH. (It is not necessarily as warm as many reports are suggesting; for all we know the İHH may have double-crossed Erdoğan after assuring him there would be no unpleasantness on that boat). I want to know exactly how the decision to allow the Mavi Marmara to sail was made: Was it made at the Cabinet level? Was there dissent? Who were the dissenters? Why, I wonder, has Turkish President Abdullah Gül been silent to the point of invisibility in the aftermath of the event? What does the military--which has also been silent to the point of near-invisibility--make of this?
I want to know just what's going on between the AKP and Fethullah Gülen: Were they aware that he planned to criticize the İHH? Did they encourage him to do so, and if so, why? I want to know why the Turkish media, which ordinarily does offer a wide spectrum of opinions, has been so remarkably monolithic about this: Is it really because they're all just feckless, neo-Islamist idiots? Or is something else going on--have the dissenters been silenced, and if so, how? (The easy answer is that they've been silenced through financial consolidation, intimidation and harassment, which has been going on for some time, but why is it suddenly working so well? This was not an entirely monolithic and compliant press before this incident.)
I want to know why, despite all of this, no one here is raising the possibility of severing Turkish-Israeli military cooperation, even though the government is intimating that the Israelis are mixed up with the PKK. Doesn't it seem strange to you that a government that is on the one hand accusing Israel of cooperating with its greatest (real) enemy is planning to continue to rely on Israel to modernize its tanks and furnish its drones?
I want to know what the Iranians make of all of this: Doesn't it seem to you they've been awfully quiet, all things considered?
I'm not trying to spin conspiracy theories here; quite the opposite. I'd like to encourage a bit of epistemological modesty. There is obviously a lot we don't understand. Someone in the West may know the answers to these questions, but they're not being reported.
Second, the reporting I'm seeing is missing a lot of details that strike me as important. For example, I wonder if people realize that the protests here are not that big, and not that widespread, and that moreover they're not spontaneous: They're being organized by the AKP, which is frantically sending text messages to its supporters inviting them and urging them to join. I'm not seeing much reporting that suggests the feeling I'm getting from speaking to ordinary people here, which is that above all they're confused. I'm looking for reliable opinion polls--how is the AKP polling now? How is Kılıçdaroğlu polling? But I haven't seen them yet.
Informally, I'm seeing signs of a backlash, as in this comment, posted by a Facebook acquaintance:
we are Only Turk not arab or etc..only line connect us is religion, we have 5000 years history in this geograpy but muslim since 1300 years so we are 1st turk then muslim we are just turk different then them different blood i just ashamed from the ones inside us who thinks like radical arabic way, if ATATURK was still alive i bet he would cut pff all radical muslim turks head's again.
There are a million important things to understand about this comment and others like it, culturally and historically, but I'm not seeing the kind of analysis in the Western media that would help readers make sense of it.
The reporting strikes me as a bit superficial, basically. I don't disagree with the overall message--that something very ominous is happening--but I wish it went a bit deeper. Given the significance of what's happening here, it should.
I'm obviously going to do my best to find out the answers to these questions (and to keep raising them). I'll let you know if I have any luck.